Pathfinder 2E Release Day Second Edition Amazon Sales Rank

[Parmandur]

I don't think anyone believes that Paizo isn't doing "good enough" for their bottom line, but...it could have been more significant on the scene, considering where PF1 was.

 

[fearsomepirate]

So, I've made some charts.

Chart #1: Reported PF2 Core Book Amazon Rankings, as reported in this thread (and where there were multiple reports in the same day, I took the best sales number). Unfortunately the representation here isn't what I'd prefer, as the "higher" it goes up, the "worse" the sales because it reflects the worse sales rank of a higher number. Maybe someone can tell me how to flip that, or I could just make them negative numbers if I have to.

Product sales vs rank tend to look like a power law, so maybe plotting 1/log(rank) would be reasonable.

The most important thing I draw from these two charts?

PF2, a year and a half into its release, is selling worse on Amazon than PF1 was selling on average 7-8 after it's release.

Not really surprising. 5e put Paizo between a rock and a hard place. They had a couple unpleasant options:
-Become a 5e OGL-based 3rd party, delivering primarily APs and monster books (massive staff cuts)
-Try to sustain PF1 forever (die by attrition)
-Make a new game (likely a flat step down in sales)

It also depends on if theyre doing less of their buisiness on Amazon, you can't buy pdfs there and physical books are less convenient for online gaming.

They're at less than 2% of Roll20 games now. At the end of 2016, Pathfinder had over 15% of online games.

 

[Justice and Rule]

They're at less than 2% of Roll20 games now. At the end of 2016, Pathfinder had over 15% of online games.

Comparing online gaming share from then to now is going to run into problems, given how it exploded in the last year.

 

[darjr]

Comparing online gaming share from then to now is going to run into problems, given how it exploded in the last year.

Actually I think it drives the point home. All boats should have risen on this tide.

 

[Nilbog]

Actually I think it drives the point home. All boats should have risen on this tide.

I agree, but I think we need to be a little mindful that although roll20 is the 500lb gorilla in the room of vtts looking at most message boards it doesn't seem to be the platform of choice for people playing pf2e, most threads recommend foundry. I agree that the likely numbers aren't going to be massive, but I do believe that platform is growing.

I don't run APs, but I agree with the posters who say that the current ones for PF2E aren't system sellers, good (or not) as they maybe they are very niche (which holds appeal for a lot of people, but probably not the mainstream which PF2E needs to target). It really needs it's 'killer app' that is a popular story and highlights what the system is good at.

 

[TheSword]

I agree, but I think we need to be a little mindful that although roll20 is the 500lb gorilla in the room of vtts looking at most message boards it doesn't seem to be the platform of choice for people playing pf2e, most threads recommend foundry. I agree that the likely numbers aren't going to be massive, but I do believe that platform is growing.

I don't run APs, but I agree with the posters who say that the current ones for PF2E aren't system sellers, good (or not) as they maybe they are very niche (which holds appeal for a lot of people, but probably not the mainstream which PF2E needs to target). It really needs it's 'killer app' that is a popular story and highlights what the system is good at.

Foundry is good, and I use it from time to time myself. But I think it’s worth remembering that it’s still very new. It’s also not plug and play like roll20, requiring either opening up your computer as a server or paying a hosting subscription with a different provider and uploading your work. If you’re not techy then the first was pretty intimidating and the second is just another hurdle that wipes out the point of the software being a one time purchase.

I would be very interested in the Foundry user numbers, but because it’s software sold not active accounts that could be very difficult to find out. Either way I wouldn’t expect Foundry to be changing the Roll20 numbers much.

 

[Matrix Sorcica]

Kill the players Campaign (starter AP)

Never a wise business decision.

 

[Justice and Rule]

Actually I think it drives the point home. All boats should have risen on this tide.

I mean all of them did, but part of that is obscured by the fact that D&D rose the most. Plus if the player base size doubled like it did in 2020, then 2016's 15% it was would only look like 7% today.

 

[Parmandur]

I mean all of them did, but part of that is obscured by the fact that D&D rose the most. Plus if the player base size doubled like it did in 2020, then 2016's 15% it was would only look like 7% today.

The relevant comparison is that both PF1 are being played significantly more than PF2. They pulled the 4E trick of losing the larger portion of their audience, without brining in more new players.

 

[fearsomepirate]

I agree, but I think we need to be a little mindful that although roll20 is the 500lb gorilla in the room of vtts looking at most message boards it doesn't seem to be the platform of choice for people playing pf2e, most threads recommend foundry. I agree that the likely numbers aren't going to be massive, but I do believe that platform is growing.

On Fantasy Grounds, Pathfinder is doing a little better, PF1 holding at 8%, and and PF2 having climbed to a total of 4%. Paizo's total share of FG has at least held steady on FG since 2017, when they had 11%. The market is almost twice as big as it was in 2016, so Paizo can afford to lose share without losing revenue. However, given what information we have:

1. Declining rank on Amazon
2. Declining share on Roll20
3. Stagnant share on FG

we can't do anything better than to say it's inconclusive. And really, what should we expect? PF1's brand identity was "3.5 Thrives!" Translation: "We're continuing that old product you love, since the IP owner is making something you hate!" Well, since 5e is apparently the most popular D&D product since the Mentzer box, both expanding the market and bringing back players who hated 4e (which I rather enjoyed), "Like the old thing you loved, not the new thing you hate" isn't sustainable, so where do you go from there? Paizo's now going for the niche of people who want to play something that is kind of like D&D, but have a very particular itch that's not being scratched. They have a leg up there due to higher brand recognition among D&D players. Far more D&D players have heard of Pathfinder than ACKS, 13th Age, Castles & Crusades, etc. But I don't see how they can realistically maintain anything like the share they had before 5e dropped.