D&D and the rising pandemic

[Garthanos]

I'm going to pretend this isn't a typo.

I am insisting it be at least a typo ... with sarcasm a runner up

 

[Umbran]

Yeh the easiest right now estimate is to compare expected totals (which are actually pretty predictable) with resultant death totals the difference indicates we are under reporting by about half.... ie if we have reported 500 thousand the actual number is 750 thousand

So.. no. I mean, you may be able to blame most of that excess on covid, but you cannot rely on much of that excess to be people who actually had the disease.

That overage will include people who were fearful of going to the doctor's office or hospital, didn't get treatment, and died as a result. It includes people who tried to get treatment, but the overtaxed healthcare system couldn't fully support them at a critical moment. And people who lost jobs or health insurance, so they couldn't afford medications or nutrition. It includes people for whom isolation was so bad for them that they turned to drugs and overdosed, or committed suicide. And goodness knows how many other things.

So, while the existence of covid-19 probably contributed or caused the death in some moral sense, this does not feed into the mortality numbers in terms of your "risk of death if you catch covid".

 

[Thomas Shey]

Hmm, in Croatia it might be the opposite, if you are positive to COVID and you die, most probably it will be marked as cause of death.

People claim this in a lot of places. Once you dig into it, it turns out most such "overcounts" are people outside the medical community that don't understand how co-morbidity listings work (i.e., someone can have heart disease, die of a heart attack, but the COVID is still clearly the culprit because they had the heart disease managed until COVID came along). This doesn't mean some sloppy bookkeeping isn't sometimes done, but when you see people claiming its a serious factor, take it with a grain of salt).

We are even running jokes that it is now perfect time to shoot someone as long as they are COVID positive, "acute lead poisoning" might just be marked as co-morbidity.

Add in the complete cluster-frakk with purchasing orders of vaccines and you got a real show going on.

Can't wait enough for my shot so we can end this "#%$"$#"!!

Well, for nearly everyone's shot. After all, you can have the vaccine and still be a potential spreader, though it'll reduce your viral load.

[As an aside, hey, first time I've seen a Croat gamer anywhere; that's where my mother's family came from, though when she was alive I never paid quite enough attention to know what area thereof).

 

[Thomas Shey]

which is why I mentioned total deaths which is not dependent on cause of death determined or on most of the influences you mentioned

The only thing you need to do there is account for some knock-on effects from the pandemic first, such as the increase in suicides.

 

[Garthanos]

So, while the existence of covid-19 probably contributed or caused the death in some moral sense, this does not feed into the mortality numbers in terms of your "risk of death if you catch covid".

it does not in an an absolute sense because there indeed can be some other causes but we are talking half as many who were identified ... AND with the piss poor testing in the US how many were just not tested and not identified as such... those are likely a significantly larger number.

 

[Umbran]

it does not in an an absolute sense because there indeed can be some other causes but we are talking half as many who were identified ... AND with the piss poor testing in the US how many were just not tested and not identified as such... those are likely a significantly larger number.

Sure, but... do I need to repeat myself about how human feelings about what the numbers should be are not reliable. At all? That we feel they are likely a larger number, we should not rely on that without evidence.

 

[Zardnaar]

I'm going to pretend this isn't a typo.

Autocorrect stats are only a guideline. Not perfect but don't have anything better so you ye what you've got.

 

[Garthanos]

The only thing you need to do there is account for some knock-on effects from the pandemic first, such as the increase in suicides.

suicide rate in my state and nationally went down ....

 

[Garthanos]

Sure, but... do I need to repeat myself about how human feelings about what the numbers should be are not reliable. At all? That we feel they are likely a larger number, we should not rely on that without evidence.

I did not say why it was likely... we do have more than feelings about that. For instance suicide rates where I live went from 14.7 to 14.3... from 2019 to 2020 and we can gather evidence the us overall suicide rate is also down continuing the trend from 2019 being lower than 2018. So while it remains possible that more people did commit suicide than might have without covid it also seems likely its not some huge spike nor responsible for the increase in expected deaths.

 

[Garthanos]

Basically I have seen a doctor go and debunk most of the projected alternative causes for the rise in deaths compared to the expected. We had expected rates by those causes too giving a baseline change there. (with overwhelmed hospitals still being mostly covid).

However I have been reading right now our cases are dropping significantly after the first of the year at a rate that was not expected so something else is happening too.