Blue
Ravenous Bugblatter Beast of Traal
Yes, but then please stop ignoring that for two messages I have said "but not everything else is equal" and given examples. Is 3 orcs that can crit more risky than 5 orcs that can't? Not in a normal face-off. It's easy enough to test if you want, could write a quick Monte Carlo and do a few thousand iterations.Swinginess is by far the greatest source of risk to the PCs in almost any typical combat in any edition.
Thus, preferring less swinginess directly equates to preferring less risk, all other things being equal. If you (or, in this case, the designers) then want to make the combats tougher overall to put the risk back in, that's different.
Respectfully, you haven't engaged the main point I keep bringing up -- "all else being equal" directly reads as "am am ignoring your points about possible changes elsewhere in monster maths or XP budget" that we just don't have a whole picture on yet.
And less swinginess can mean MORE risk, because a DM can increase the threat without having to leave a buffer for statistical anomalies getting multiplied out of proportion. PC doing from up to insta-kill from a crit is a heck of a lot less fun then a PC getting dropped and then other PCs having to rush in and take blows and try to heal them to try to avoid them getting hit again.