Open Gaming predictions one year from now

[The Stray]

Am I right in thinking that Hasbro can come out with a 6e and then revise the OGL to what they want. This will force people to play with the old edition and keep the OGL1.0 or change to the new OGL if they want to keep 6e players. I am guessing that ORC will only allow people to play and develop 5e things based off the 5e SRD.

That wasn't the problem. If they'd just done that, it would be like how they put 4e under the GSL instead of the OGL.

But this new license is attempting to claim that NO ONE can publish more content for previous versions of the OGL, because they are "no longer authorized." Which is a problem for any company that wants to play and develop things stuff based off the 5e SRD. THAT'S the crux of the problem.

 

[aramis erak]

My predictions:
Wizards under new management picked by the HasBro board,
OGL1.0a explicitly deauthoorized, and the dice waiting to be rolled in the 9th Circuit.
OGL2 includes an explicit de-auth provision, but looks pretty close to 1.0a otherwise, and includes that if it uses Wizards SRDs, there's a revenue cut (10-20%) on the revenue above some floor, not total revenue.
And I expect the ORC to be dominant by then as a license

 

[Reynard]

That wasn't the problem. If they'd just done that, it would be like how they put 4e under the GSL instead of the OGL.

But this new license is attempting to claim that NO ONE can publish more content for previous versions of the OGL, because they are "no longer authorized." Which is a problem for any company that wants to play and develop things stuff based off the 5e SRD. THAT'S the crux of the problem.

Or for Pathfinder, or 13th Age, or the OSR. It's not just about 5E.

 

[Malmuria]

I could see these new systems/heartbreakers ditching some of the legacy elements of dnd such as

• derived ability bonus (i.e. when a 16 actually means a +3, etc)
• spell slots
• detailed equipment lists and treasure rewards for more heroic fantasy games
• 1-20 level range (some will cap at 10, some will go past 20).

 

[Matt Thomason]

My predictions:

Many larger 3PPs are going to shy away from the OGL and move towards ORC unless we get a test case with a court ruling that Wizards cannot de-authorize OGL 1.0a. Understandably, most are reluctant to put themselves in a position where they'll be that test case.

Some people will happily fill that gap and become OGL 2.0 content producers for OneD&D. This will likely ensure there's no real lack of 3PP content for OneD&D, but it is unlikely we will see anywhere near as many entire D&D SRD-based third party games as we do now.

Some companies will feel that making their game ORC-licensed will be a good PR move, and will do so. There will be a growth in the number of complete rulesets based on non-D&D SRDs. Likely, too much growth because of the percentage of players that want a D&D-alike.

At least for a while, there will be a rush of 3PPs big and small eager to be among the first names people see with ORC-licensed material.

Paizo ORC-ifys PF2. I have no confidence at all in predicting what happens there. Everything might go fine, and that becomes the basis for future D&D-alike rulesets. WotC might take them to court over the similarities to D&D, and may possibly win. Or lose. Or they might do absolutely nothing. There are far too many variables involved, including whether Paizo are thorough enough to remove absolutely every copyrightable trace of WotC's SRD, considering that the final judgement will be based on a Judge's opinion of similarities and is somewhat difficult to define solidly.

We will see more new rulesets than ever as established companies that have depended on the OGL decide not to risk either it or ORC-licensed SRDs, and feel their own ruleset will be the safest option of all.

All in all, quite possibly a far better future for RPGs in general and all because of the OGL mess.

 

[Sacrosanct]

I could see these new systems/heartbreakers ditching some of the legacy elements of dnd such as

• derived ability bonus (i.e. when a 16 actually means a +3, etc)
• spell slots
• detailed equipment lists and treasure rewards for more heroic fantasy games
• 1-20 level range (some will cap at 10, some will go past 20).

Funny enough, I’ve already done all of this for Bugbears &Borderlands lol. The original OGL version did have spell slots, but in the process of de-OGLing it, I went to spell points instead. But it’s always used a bonus instead of ability score, capped at level 10, and streamlined equipment lists (among other things)

 

[schneeland]

I mostly concur with @delericho.

I would, maybe add a variation of the first scenario, I would also rank as likely:

• WotC go ahead with OGL 2.0 in some form, and declare 1.0a de-authorized
• Paizo (and potentially others) challenge the de-authorization - the legal process starts
• Due to the uncertainty and a notable part (though not the majority) of the community being upset, the market for 3PP D&D products contracts and a number of people leave the industry
• Paizo wins - the legal process ends
• Some 3PP return to publishing 5e OGL material, but most 3PP have moved to the ORC or other free licenses
• Similarly a notable number of influencers have moved away from D&D as their main system, though nothing coalesces around a specific other system
• One D&D is launched and enjoys some success, but a larger part of the enthusiasm is gone and never returns
  

 

[Longspeak]

My prediction, one year from now:

At least one of the PCs in my ongoing Mercenary Circus game will have an owner's share of the circus. At least one of the groups will have left the circus, but continue to play their weekly session in the same world. The leader of the third crew will find new love. She won't forget her old love, but will honor that love by choosing to live life to the fullest. And there will be at least one wedding episode.

Wait, was I supposed to talk about the industry? Meh.