Pedantic
Legend
How does timing enter into the question? Does it matter at all?I think there is also an element of wanting the PCs to succeed and press on with the campaign story no matter what. So, it becomes, "oh YES YOU DID!" Maybe this is lack of system knowledge and/or GMing experience, but some folks just wont except a failure state and/or TPK campaign end.
Generally speaking, I'm very concerned with player agency and wouldn't appreciate either of the scenarios I'm about to introduce, but I do think one shows more disregard for player decision making than the other.
The thing you're discussing above, is that the GM has conceived of a story, and could give you a list of events that will occur. "The PCs defeat the orc captain, journey to the warcamp detailed on the map he was carrying where they are captured and must break out," for example, is a set of events the GM can absolutely force into occurring, by moving the warcamp to wherever the PCs go if they ignore the map, by ensuring they cannot defeat the necessary rolls when captured, etc. etc. That level of obvious railroad feels like very basic and bad GMing for sure, but it does give the players some ability to wiggle around the story. They can't adjust the timeline of events that the GM has decided will occur, but they can mess with the connective tissue, heading straight for the warcamp, sidelining to a different location, fighting when they get captured, surrendering immediately, etc.
The other option that I find even more distasteful, is the GM deciding the next event that occurs without a script. In that case, the GM is spooling out a plot purely in reaction to events as they play out. That has all the problems as above, but creates an even less consistent/interactive world, because there's no real relationship between the choices the players make and the resulting situation at all. I suppose it's the same principle as above, but with the illusion in "illusionism" stripped away to leave actual nothing but someone telling a story about a character you nominally control.