D&D (2024) Hypothesis: Playtest 7 delayed to add elements inspired by BG3

[Scribe]

For all of BG3's popularity, it's a mere fraction of the people who are playing pen & paper D&D right now. A big fraction, but nothing close to a majority.
Also, it's just a single purchase at basically the price of one book, so not even as much revenue as a D&D player who buys two books a year.

Do we have poll response numbers? Do we know how many players buy a book a year?

I think you be underselling just how much BG3 is going to make.

 

[Leatherhead]

You have to remember, even if there are more people playing tabletop, most of the time they do so on the DM's dime, with 5+ people sharing the same set of books/subscription.

BG3 has grossed over 200 million on steam alone, and that's not counting the console release, which is tomorrow. It's success is so great that there have been other recent announcements, discussing how WotC sees the future of D&D as digital.

But more to the point:
The popularity of BG3 taps into alternate and adjacent markets that WotC is looking to court, and not just existing markets. Considering their goal is to expand the brand, it would behoove them to give the new markets weight when considering what the new books should be printing.

 

[bedir than]

I think you be underselling just how much BG3 is going to make.

It will make a lot, and more than the movie and tabletop combined. But it won't make Wizards that money. Right now it is at about 3 million players. And that's just not a lot. It's less than have watched the movie, for example.
It's much less than who have bought a book this year.

You have to remember, even if there are more people playing tabletop, most of the time they do so on the DM's dime, with 5+ people sharing the same set of books/subscription.

For 5e that number, according to the surveys linked here is about 1 book for every other person playing the game.
It's not as lopsided as it was in the TSR era.

 

[Parmandur]

With the huge success of BG3 maybe WotC has decide to hold patch 7 back so they can poach some of the best and most popular ideas from BG3. Thing like weapon actions, surfaces, spells that create surfaces, magic items, a Planar Ally that is practical and not a nightmare to use and longest shot Tadpole powers.

No, I doubt it: they already tried out some of the BG3 rules, and they were rejected in earlier packets or are still in.

 

[Charlaquin]

It will make a lot, and more than the movie and tabletop combined. But it won't make Wizards that money. Right now it is at about 3 million players. And that's just not a lot. It's less than have watched the movie, for example.
It's much less than who have bought a book this year.

For 5e that number, according to the surveys linked here is about 1 book for every other person playing the game.
It's not as lopsided as it was in the TSR era.

There’s likely to be a big upsurge in players when it comes out on console Wednesday. It’ll still be a modest number compared to players of the tabletop of course, but the game is undoubtedly a huge hit.

 

[mamba]

Also, it's just a single purchase at basically the price of one book, so not even as much revenue as a D&D player who buys two books a year.

chances are it has sold more copies this year than D&D has sold books...

 

[mamba]

It will make a lot, and more than the movie and tabletop combined. But it won't make Wizards that money. Right now it is at about 3 million players.

Rumor: Baldur’s Gate 3 tops 5 million units sold, according to Belgian Embassy in China | Game World Observer

Baldur’s Gate 3 has been a massive success for Larian Studios, topping Steam charts and receiving widespread acclaim from the press. Although the company hasn’t officially disclosed sales, there is a report hinting at possible figures.

gameworldobserver.com

and that is Steam only

Baldur's Gate 3 Is Now Number One In PS5 Pre-Order Sales - Gameranx

Following its successful launch on PC, Baldur's Gate 3 is now the best selling pre-order item on PlayStation 5.

gameranx.com

 

[Henadic Theologian]

Rumor: Baldur’s Gate 3 tops 5 million units sold, according to Belgian Embassy in China | Game World Observer

Baldur’s Gate 3 has been a massive success for Larian Studios, topping Steam charts and receiving widespread acclaim from the press. Although the company hasn’t officially disclosed sales, there is a report hinting at possible figures.

gameworldobserver.com

and that is Steam only

Baldur's Gate 3 Is Now Number One In PS5 Pre-Order Sales - Gameranx

Following its successful launch on PC, Baldur's Gate 3 is now the best selling pre-order item on PlayStation 5.

gameranx.com

The Belgian Embassy got its info most likely from a site called Video Insights, which has since increased its estimates, I think Steamspy is closer to the true estimating 20 to 50 million owners of BG3.

Why you ask? Because WotC cut of BG3 made them more money then a decade of Hasbro movies, which included 4 Transformer movies and bunch of other movie including DADHAT.

For that to be the case 5 or even 10 million copies are too low, because I've heard WotC cut was likely no larger then 5% of BG3 sales.

 

[Retreater]

For all of BG3's popularity, it's a mere fraction of the people who are playing pen & paper D&D right now. A big fraction, but nothing close to a majority.
Also, it's just a single purchase at basically the price of one book, so not even as much revenue as a D&D player who buys two books a year.

It's ... uh ... already outsold the entirety of 5e. Like, the entire product line combined.
Had more concurrent players on Steam playing it than the top 10 adventure books sold by WotC.
5e is pretty small compared to the success of BG3.
https://www.enworld.org/threads/5e-lifetime-sales-in-north-american-big-box-stores-revealed.698946/

 

[MockingBird]

One thing to keep in mind here. People who love to play video games doesn't mean they will love to play TTRPGs. I have several friends who love CRPGs and video games but flat out refuse to try a TTRPG. I know that's anecdotal but I wouldn't count it out entirely.