D&D General Is DnD being mothballed?

[darjr]

In my experience of selling D&D for... 6 core revisions of 4 editions (with a 7th on the way!) I can say that this is the only edition where I still have a significant number of customers who buy every book that they publish. This has NEVER been the case before, as they've always ALWAYS burnt-out even the most hard-core buyer with the pace (and quality) of books. Now, not all 5e books have been the best, and I suspect that they're close to a breaking point with the new increase in price-point and the higher-end slipcases for the same (or less) content. I think the breaking point is close. BUT, it's never lasted 10 years before. I don't think that it's lasted more than three years before.

There's gotta be something to the release schedule - it's not just the advent of Critical Role and Stranger Things. Those things are responsible for the stellar "Long Tail" of people who pick up a book here, a book there, but the sustained sales across the board? That's on the release schedule.

I have heard the same from other retailers. Thanks for that insight!

 

[dave2008]

I know, that is probably what they internally are doing. Not sure why they would think that given the sales data we have showing that rulebooks sell better than adventures however…

In any case, this is only an either / or if WotC makes it one, they could also increase the staff / hire temps and do both books.

That to me was where Matt was going, why do you still only have 10 people working on this when it turned into this runaway success

They have increased the staff by quite a bit IIRC

 

[dave2008]

In my experience of selling D&D for... 6 core revisions of 4 editions (with a 7th on the way!) I can say that this is the only edition where I still have a significant number of customers who buy every book that they publish. This has NEVER been the case before, as they've always ALWAYS burnt-out even the most hard-core buyer with the pace (and quality) of books. Now, not all 5e books have been the best, and I suspect that they're close to a breaking point with the new increase in price-point and the higher-end slipcases for the same (or less) content. I think the breaking point is close. BUT, it's never lasted 10 years before. I don't think that it's lasted more than three years before.

There's gotta be something to the release schedule - it's not just the advent of Critical Role and Stranger Things. Those things are responsible for the stellar "Long Tail" of people who pick up a book here, a book there, but the sustained sales across the board? That's on the release schedule.

It is nice to get input from an actual retailer - thanks Fitz!

 

[Maxperson]

In my experience of selling D&D for... 6 core revisions of 4 editions (with a 7th on the way!) I can say that this is the only edition where I still have a significant number of customers who buy every book that they publish. This has NEVER been the case before, as they've always ALWAYS burnt-out even the most hard-core buyer with the pace (and quality) of books. Now, not all 5e books have been the best, and I suspect that they're close to a breaking point with the new increase in price-point and the higher-end slipcases for the same (or less) content. I think the breaking point is close. BUT, it's never lasted 10 years before. I don't think that it's lasted more than three years before.

There's gotta be something to the release schedule - it's not just the advent of Critical Role and Stranger Things. Those things are responsible for the stellar "Long Tail" of people who pick up a book here, a book there, but the sustained sales across the board? That's on the release schedule.

1) had those things all happened earlier or prior editions come out later, you might have enjoyed the same sales trends that you are seeing now with a prior edition.
2) Even if slowing has a positive effect, but it could be less positive to have it as slow as it is than a bit faster. I know my group is frustrated at the slowness of the release schedule and that's one of the reasons we seem to be heading back to 3e.

 

[darjr]

I suspect that might be a problem with the data set: we don't know the relative percentages on any of these products outside of Bookscan. Take Ravnica as an example: Nate Stewart went on record in 2029 thar Ravnica was the fastest selling D&D book ever released, buy thst isn't reflected in the Bookscan numbers. Simple explanation for that in my mind is that Ravnica fans are enfranchised Magic players...who buy stuff from their FLGS every Friday. So, including that non-Bookscan venue, I can believe that Ravnica had a huge initial surge of sales outside thst data set, and it would not surprise me if the same were true for CR.

Yes, and I agree that’s a special case. But the WotC CR books are not that. They were not magic fans for instance and folks got them from the same place everyone else did.

If anything I’d argue that the big box stores would be a greater share if the sales.

 

[Maxperson]

Yeah, the problem is that we don't know what would have happened otherwise, because CR and Stranger Things were unprecedented.

Exactly! That's my entire point. We don't know what would happened otherwise, so we can't say with the ultimate confidence of some of the posters here that it is the very slow release rate.

 

[see]

I know, that is probably what they internally are doing. Not sure why they would think that given the sales data we have showing that rulebooks sell better than adventures however…

Adventures are both DM-targeted and clearly optional. That hurts their sales as individual products, but also means that no matter how many are published, they don't hurt new player recruitment. And, as DM assistance, they may well help transition players into DMs, which also helps long-term line sales.

 

[Oofta]

Yeah, the problem is that we don't know what would have happened otherwise, because CR and Stranger Things were unprecedented.

True. But it's also just part of a bigger picture, that fantasy and the supernatural as entertainment is more acceptable now than it ever was.

 

[darjr]

Exactly! That's my entire point. We don't know what would happened otherwise, so we can't say with the ultimate confidence of some of the posters here that it is the very slow release rate.

But we do. From the gate it sold unlike any other edition the folks at WotC had experienced. It shocked them. They thought something was wrong. They had to change their release cycle and delay the DMG. Before CR.

 

[FitzTheRuke]

They also learned that players don't buy books, DMs do. Player option books were a bust. So they make money by providing game prep materials for DMs. And t-shirts for players. Because players will buy t-shirts.

The main books that players will buy is big books of crunch, ALA Tasha's and Xanathar's. However, they won't buy too many of them, and their existence always unbalances the game, so it makes great sense that WotC would roll them out carefully, like they have with those two books.

IMO, the game being a sideline for merchandising is probsvly good for the game: slow and steady product releases, consistent rules. I for one do not think the hobby should idolize product strategies that nearly destroyed everything.

It was always bad for the game to have the onus of brand-profitability being on the RPG. This is why they always went for a glut of books. Now, with the onus on the Brand as a License, the RPG is free to breathe. It's definitely good for the game.