D&D General Is DnD being mothballed?

[Parmandur]

Oh, ok. So the “average magic player” he’s referring to is someone who has a pile cards in a drawer somewhere that they got for Christmas six years ago or something, not what I think of when I hear “magic player.” Yeah, that makes sense.

Well, no, what he means is that most Magic card sales are people who juat buy an occasional pack at Walgreens or Target, and that seriousnplayera are not the biggest source of Magic revenue, and that those people do play. So products are frequently oriented at "kitchen top" Magic because it is the most common way people play and spend money on the game.

 

[Echohawk]

I agree with your overall point -- it is obvious -- but am curious why you put 2018 as "peak 5E." First of all, I'm not sure what these "7 other products" are (dice sets?) or why they figure into your calculation. If anything, the make 5E's output seem larger than it actually is (i.e. removing the "other products" from each edition is more impactful to 5E...where 2E is reduced to 71, 5E is reduced to 4).

Agreed. That's why I provided the breakdown of what types of products I was counting.

2018 and 2019 are actually tied for the highest number of 5e products (so far).

Spoiler: 2018/2019 releases

2018 hardcovers (4): Mordenkainen's Tome of Foes, Waterdeep: Dragon Heist, Waterdeep: Dungeon of the Mad Mage, Guildmaster's Guide to Ravnica
2018 other products (7): Dungeon Tiles: Reincarnated - City, Dungeon Tiles: Reincarnated - Dungeon, Dungeon Tiles: Reincarnated - Wilderness, Guildmaster's Guide to Ravnica: Dice, Guildmaster's Guide to Ravnica: Maps and Miscellany, Waterdeep: Dragon Heist - Dice, Waterdeep: Dungeon of the Mad Mage - Maps and Miscellany

2019 hardcovers (5): Ghosts of Saltmarsh, Baldur's Gate: Descent into Avernus, Tyranny of Dragons, Acquisitions Incorporated, Eberron: Rising from the Last War
2019 boxed sets (3): Stranger Things Starter Set, Essentials Kit, D&D vs. Rick and Morty
2019 other products (3): Tactical Maps: Reincarnated, Baldur's Gate: Descent into Avernus - Dice and Miscellany, Sapphire Anniversary Dice Set

However, WotC also released six Endless Quest books in those two years (4 in 2018, 2 in 2019). Even though I didn't include those in the count, they were enough to persuade me to consider 2018 as the peak to date, at least in terms of the number of products.

I figured I'd explain this if someone asked

Secondly, 2019 and beyond all had at least five big products - hardcovers and box sets. 2019 might be peak, because you have four hardcovers, Essentials, Tyranny, plus two starter sets. Or it could be 2022, with five hardcoves plus a box set, plus the DL battle game. This year is just a bit less. 2018, on the other hand, just had four hardcovers plus the "other products" which were rather forgettable. Production ramped up a bit in 2019; 2020 saw a slight dip due to covid, but then it bounced back to "Five Plus" from 2021 on. So I'd say "peak 5E" really started in 2019.

Also agreed. Counting the total number of products isn't the ideal way to measure output, it is just one (fairly easy) way. In terms of page count (ignoring board games and accessories and those Endless Quest books), the totals look like this:

2018: 1056
2019: 1624
2020: 1324
2021: 1180
2022: 1242
2023: 1280

But even this isn't a perfect comparison. The count for 2019 includes 224 pages of recycled material in Tyranny of Dragons and 344 pages of partly reprinted content in the Stranger Things, Rick & Morty and Essentials boxed sets. 2020 includes 252 pages of reprinted content in Curse of Strahd Revamped. 2022 includes Monsters of the Multiverse and the revised Starter Set which both have recycled content. 2023 includes The Practically Complete Guide to Dragons which is also reprinted content.

 

[Charlaquin]

Well, no, what he means is that most Magic card sales are people who juat buy an occasional pack at Walgreens or Target, and that seriousnplayera are not the biggest source of Magic revenue, and that those people do play. So products are frequently oriented at "kitchen top" Magic because it is the most common way people play and spend money on the game.

Yeah, as I said in a subsequent post, I was being hyperbolic in that description. What I was trying to get across was that I, who used to regularly top 8 FNMs at a game store that was frequented by actual pro tour grinders, had the wrong demographic in mind when I read the phrase “average magic player.” But yeah, realistically it’s less “has a pile of cards in a drawer somewhere” and more “has some decks assembled from boosters they occasionally buy that they use to play on lunch breaks or board game nights.”

 

[Hussar]

That's not right.

Peak 2e: 1995: 3 hardcovers, 53 softcovers, 15 boxed sets, 7 other products. Total 78 = 6.5/month
Peak 3e: 2006: 19 hardcovers, 5 softcovers, 2 boxed sets, 6 other products. Total 32 = 2.7/month
Peak 4e: 2010: 12 hardcovers, 10 softcovers, 5 boxed sets, 7 other products. Total 34 = 2.8/month
Peak 5e: 2018: 4 hardcovers, 7 other products. Total 11 = 0.9/month.

Fair enough. I was only thinking of hardcovers to be honest. But, honestly, I don't think my point is too far off. Yes, there might be room to produce more, particularly if they go with cheaper soft covers. But, the basic point still remains - why would they?

I mean, I'm not trying to be snarky here or anything. But, what's in it for WotC to change the formula? They are still having record growth. The industry is the healthiest it has ever been in the history of the industry. I just can't see what the upside is for changing what they're doing.

Good grief, and this isn't directed at anyone specific, but, if you add in the DM's Guild stuff, you couldn't possibly play more than a tiny slice of what's already available. Unhappy about Spelljammer? DM's Guild has a very well done 20 level Spelljammer Adventure path. Great stuff. Heck, and it's already done for Fantasy Grounds as well. What more could I actually want?

 

[QuentinGeorge]

That's not right.

Peak 2e: 1995: 3 hardcovers, 53 softcovers, 15 boxed sets, 7 other products. Total 78 = 6.5/month
Peak 3e: 2006: 19 hardcovers, 5 softcovers, 2 boxed sets, 6 other products. Total 32 = 2.7/month
Peak 4e: 2010: 12 hardcovers, 10 softcovers, 5 boxed sets, 7 other products. Total 34 = 2.8/month
Peak 5e: 2018: 4 hardcovers, 7 other products. Total 11 = 0.9/month.

The amount of 2e product was insane.

 

[Maxperson]

PHew. That took a while to wade through.

Just a question.

How is 3-5 pretty meaty books - as in 2-300 pages each, hard cover, full art, plus all the extras like web articles and whatnot count as a "slow" release? I mean, sure, it's slower than other editions but, we all pretty much agree that those were too fast.

If you're talking the annual releases, it's because adventures and settings don't count as crunch books. We're looking for Tasha's and Xanathar's style releases, and we've gotten 2 in 10 years. If you count monster books that rises to 5 in 10 years. 1 every 2 years on average is slooooooooooooooooooooooooooooow.

 

[Maxperson]

Here's the 5e release rate of crunch books beyond the core 3.

2015: Nothing
2016: Volo's Guide to Monsters
2017: Xanathar's Guide to Everything
2018: Mordenkainen's Tome of Foes
2019: Nothing
2020: Tasha's Cauldron of Everything
2021: Fizban's Treasury of Dragons(I forgot about this one)
2022: A book of mostly reprinted stuff with slight changes: Mordenkainen Presents: Monsters of the Multiverse
2023: Bigby Presents: Glory of the Giants.

So less than 1 per year, but not 1 per 2 years. Still glacially slooow.

Edit: And there are still only two really solid crunch books. Xanathar's and Tasha's where it's not a bunch of monsters and lore mixed in with a little crunch.

 

[Echohawk]

Here's the 5e release rate of crunch books beyond the core 3.

2015: Nothing
2019: Nothing

I fully agree that they aren't primarily "crunch books" but 2015's Sword Coast Adventurer's Guide and 2019's Acquisitions Incorporated are roughly 1/3 crunch each. There is obviously some sort of "how much crunch do we need to include to have at least some chance players will buy this" calculation going on inside WotC. Apparently the answer is "not as much as you might expect"!

 

[Maxperson]

I fully agree that they aren't primarily "crunch books" but 2015's Sword Coast Adventurer's Guide and 2019's Acquisitions Incorporated are roughly 1/3 crunch each. There is obviously some sort of "how much crunch do we need to include to have at least some chance players will buy this" calculation going on inside WotC. Apparently the answer is "not as much as you might expect"!

They aren't books of crunch. I don't want to have to buy 2/3 of something I don't want to get 1/3 that I want. Calling those crunch books is like calling adventures setting books since they have some setting material inside of them.

 

[UngainlyTitan]

Remember, this is straight out of Maro's mouth.

70 (75?) percent of Magic the gathering players, via their own polling/focus groups, DO NOT KNOW what a Planeswalker is.

I will go to my grave dismayed over such a statistic, but I have no reason to believe he is lying.

Bloody Hell, I do not play Magic but I have some notion of what a Planeswalker is.