MMOs using various popular licenses including Lord of the Rings, Conan, Warhammer, and Star Wars have all gone up against WoW and have all failed to take over it's place in the market with Warhammer Online actually being defunct now. Experienced MMO developers producing sequels to popular MMOs such as Guild Wars and Everquest have failed to take the spot from WoW. They've managed to take tiny portions of WoW's subscriber base which hurts WoW in the long run, but I think general wisdom is that right now the only thing that kill WoW is WoW.
When WoW was released, MMOs were still primarily for hardcore players and a niche genre. WoW was a very casual friendly game(yes even in Vanilla WoW) that attempted to appeal to a mass audience by removing massive penalties for death*, being able to be played solo**, running on older computers, made leveling faster***, and just came off of a very successful Warcraft 3 game and expansion. WoW was still unfinished and buggy when it came out and still had a lot of problems but there wasn't any serious competitors at the time to punish them. Any MMOs nowadays has to try to come into a market where there is an already reigning champion and they generally have to have a large amount of publicity and an incredibly solid game with plenty of content and many of the bells and whistles that MMO players are used to to even have a chance at unseating WoW. Chances are no knew MMO will take over until WoW is in it's final days and even then I have this feeling that a post-WoW MMO world will probably be a lot more decentralized with one MMO maybe having a plurality of active players at best due to the change of most MMOs from a subscription model to a F2P model.
*It might cost you a small amount of gold/silver/copper to repair damaged gear while other games might make you lose your equipment entirely or take away chunks of xp gained
**Many other MMOs before WoW often required you to have a group of people to even try and gaining levels or progressing through the game. WoW generally only requires you to group when you want to find a group for a dungeon or at max level when you want to join a PvE raid. You could level from 1-60 without ever entering a group if you wanted to.
***I never played original Everquest but I had friends who did and from what I understand it would take even hard core players several months to reach max level from character creation and that was with being able to get into groups to gain levels. I think my first character in WoW to get from level 1-60 took 12 days played(as in 12 actual 24 hour periods) and that was me being a noob at it.
I believe I could do it. I will have no chance to try. This is a thread of "what if." I figure I'd go big.
Lord of the Rings was never built to be an MMORPG. I love the books, didn't touch the game. It isn't built for it. You don't play
Lord of the Rings to advance in levels and gain more powerful magic. There is a fundamental misunderstanding of why a person would be attracted to a Middle Earth game. It isn't what attracts people to MMORPGs.
Star Wars had exactly the same problem. You don't play Star Wars to kill and accumulate. Nothing in the Star Wars universe has anything to do with this behavior. MMORPG's thrive on the kill and accumulate mentality. The vicarious thrill of gaining power. Star War's universe was never built with this model in mind.
Conan I played. Conan failed because after the 1-20 story, the game content sucked horribly. It wasn't intuitive or interesting. The artists did an extremely poor job of world creation. They reskinned their base humanoid figure into uninteresting creatures. Conan failed for other reasons.
Warhammer was too much like WoW and poorly constructed comparatively.
Everquest 2 was a lazily designed game. They removed aspects of the game that players liked. It was an example of a successful game that didn't realize why it was successful. It launched thinking former customers would flock to the new game.
Everquest the original is a better game than WoW in nearly every way. You know why I picked WoW over
Everquest 2? They didn't bother to design racial cities for EQ 2 for starting characters. The charm of EQ 1 was the feeling of starting out in a city where your race lived and leveling up in a unique area. WoW remembered how important that aspect of a game is.
WoW is winning not because it appeals to casual gamers, but because it's gameplay is amazing. It's raids and new areas are interesting. It kept adding interesting questing options and providing people with countless hours of interesting areas to explore and challenging encounters with a loot system that kept that carrot hanging in front of players. WoW's gameplay is second to none. Gameplay is what makes a game great. Most new MMORPGs only do a good job with the first 10 to 15 levels of gameplay releasing the game thinking they have time to build the rest. That isn't the case. You have to have the game ready to go all the way to max level with end game content. You try to get lazy about it, the game is going to fail. It's game play at all levels that allows attracts and retains players of all types from the super hardcore to the super casual. They're looking for an experience. You have to provide it whether they're in the level 1 newbie area or max level raids. All those other games failed miserably at the gameplay part.
I would not fail if I had control of D&D content. You would see unique cities built for all the racial areas. Citadel Adbar, Waterdeep, The Dalelands, Menzoberranzan. I would not launch the game without raciai cities and well-developed newbie areas. I'd start off with Myth Drannor for a raid zone in the Cormanthor Forest. I'd make sure it was built before I launched the game. I'd have a carefully constructed leveling arc from zero to max level with no weak gameplay areas. People would feel like they were adventuring in a fantasy world that provided a completely unique experience.
I'm looking to take WoW's cake. I know you can't do that by half-assing it. If I didn't get funding for the full plan, I wouldn't even bother. You can't take WoW's cake by releasing a game that provides an uninteresting play experience at any point in time. You don't have time to build out raid zones and hope you've done well enough to challenge the WoW raid experience. You can't even provide an uninteresting newbie experience. You've got to have an extremely strong game from top to bottom with a team ready to make sure expansions are hitting within a time frame that retains your customer base.
The big advantage D&D would have is the world content is in place. Very little time needs to be spent on story. The entire game is the original model for MMORPG's kill and accumulate paradigm. D&D is THE GAME that models what MMORPGs have been doing for years. They have all the cool magic items built up over the years to prove it. I would dangle that giant glittering gold carrot out for their MMORPG addicts to salivate over. You want Blackrazor? Look at that beautiful black sword with all the glittering stars? You want a shiny Holy Avenger? Come and get it. You want to wield the Sword of Kas or obtain the Hand of Vecna? Come and get it. You'll have to fight Vecna himself. You want to raid Undermountain and fight Halaster in his deep, dark dungeon? Here you go. The Mad Wizard himself. What's next? Planescape is next. Head to Sigil. Raid the Hells. Assail the fortress of Asmodeus and the Nine Rulers of Hell.
You do D&D online right. Spend the money. WoW and every other MMORPG game that has existed will be like a pale memory. D&D is the Grand Daddy all these other games seek to emulate. It has not ascended to that position because no one has had the vision and deep pockets to make it happen. Oh, the beautiful raids, zones, and instances I could build from D&D content had the I ability. It would be amazing blending all the D&D worlds into one beautiful virtual world of endless content. Could you imagine designing a layer of the Abyss as a raid zone? Or flying by means of a
fly spell? Or wielding an
Orb of Dragonkind? Or fighting mind flayers?