D&D 5E How would you ensure longevity and sustainability for 5th Edition?

I don't believe it can be done.

Each given RPG is a one-time expenditure per player. Once you've bought the PHB, MM, and DMG, then what? A few players will go into splat-bloat. But only a few. You will get a few new players - but not an amazing number after the launch of the new edition and the publicity splurge. Someone who plays every week isn't worth a damn as far as the publishers are concerned if they only ever borrow the PHB and don't buy any books.

So there are two basic approaches. The 4e/Pathfinder approach the 5e approach.

Both 4e and Paizo managed to do the same thing in different ways - a Subscription Approach. Turn players into subscribers. Paizo has people subscribing to far more adventure paths than they will ever actually play, and even non-players subscribing in the same way people subscribe to Ideal Homes magazine. 4e had subscribers to DDI - and was successful enough that in November 2013 there were enough subscribers to make $6million annual income a year and a half after the final 4e book came out. Subscriptions soon mount up.

The 5e approach is the other possibility. It's the Mothballs Approach and is only possible for a minor product in a major company. Three core books are a huge injection of cash - but after you've made those you draw the productivity almost down to nothing. You've a vast back catalogue to publish as PDFs and those have a very low overhead (they really wouldn't be worth it as physical books but the unit cost of PDFs is tiny as is the warehousing costs). You drop your expenditure through the floor; you outsource as much of your development as possible and especially the low margin adventures so you aren't taking any risks. This also lets you keep the team even smaller and have less expenditure still. And whether you make a profit or a loss is almost irrelevant; your total costs amount to a rounding error on the parent company's bottom line so if they have any sort of affection for what you do (WotC do) and they aren't themselves in trouble (WotC are making vast quantities of money with Magic) no one's going to care enough that you aren't terribly profitable to want to bother you.
 

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Patrick McGill

First Post
I don't believe it can be done.

Each given RPG is a one-time expenditure per player. Once you've bought the PHB, MM, and DMG, then what? A few players will go into splat-bloat. But only a few. You will get a few new players - but not an amazing number after the launch of the new edition and the publicity splurge. Someone who plays every week isn't worth a damn as far as the publishers are concerned if they only ever borrow the PHB and don't buy any books.

So there are two basic approaches. The 4e/Pathfinder approach the 5e approach.

Both 4e and Paizo managed to do the same thing in different ways - a Subscription Approach. Turn players into subscribers. Paizo has people subscribing to far more adventure paths than they will ever actually play, and even non-players subscribing in the same way people subscribe to Ideal Homes magazine. 4e had subscribers to DDI - and was successful enough that in November 2013 there were enough subscribers to make $6million annual income a year and a half after the final 4e book came out. Subscriptions soon mount up.

The 5e approach is the other possibility. It's the Mothballs Approach and is only possible for a minor product in a major company. Three core books are a huge injection of cash - but after you've made those you draw the productivity almost down to nothing. You've a vast back catalogue to publish as PDFs and those have a very low overhead (they really wouldn't be worth it as physical books but the unit cost of PDFs is tiny as is the warehousing costs). You drop your expenditure through the floor; you outsource as much of your development as possible and especially the low margin adventures so you aren't taking any risks. This also lets you keep the team even smaller and have less expenditure still. And whether you make a profit or a loss is almost irrelevant; your total costs amount to a rounding error on the parent company's bottom line so if they have any sort of affection for what you do (WotC do) and they aren't themselves in trouble (WotC are making vast quantities of money with Magic) no one's going to care enough that you aren't terribly profitable to want to bother you.

It's been almost exactly one year and we have the following products:

Starter Set
Player's Handbook
Monster Manual
Dungeon Master's Guide
Hoard of the Dragon Queen
Rise of Tiamat
Princes of the Apocalypse
Two sets of minis
Spellbook Cards and Character Tokens

While a lot of these were developed by outside companies under the supervision of WotC, I still wouldn't call this publishing schedule mothball. What did the other editions look like a year in? Other than the hyperactive releases of 4e, I'm unsure the others would be significantly faster.

Not that I'm trying to contradict your actual point. I'm not sure if it can be done either, especially using the release playbook of older editions.
 
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bedir than

Full Moon Storyteller
This hypothetical is inspired by Mike's comments about the expected playbook when it comes to rpgs. Specifically, he said that players have a script that turns out badly for publishers. (Via a twitter conversation here.)

So imagine you are given the monumental task of ensuring the longevity of D&D fifth edition. A Hari Seldon role, if you will, of ensuring the game and brand can weather the usual difficult timeline of an RPG.

What do you do? What products become priority? What gets released, and more importantly, what doesn't?

Keep in mind this isn't a personal wishlist. The very things many of us hardcore players want may be what starts the fall of the empire!

I'm gonna flip this around without reading the full thread, because there is something that we players and GMs can actually do. It doesn't take any more support from WotC.

Play the game. Introduce more people to the game. Repeat as necessary.
 

Dausuul

Legend
D&D has better content to work with than WoW. It's a matter of capitalizing the business until you took market share from WoW. It is also leveraging your intellectual content correctly. I have a pretty clear vision how I would do it. I believe if capitalized properly, I could unseat WoW or least take 50% of their subscriber base.
Lots of smart people with big ideas have said the same. To date, they have all failed.

It's fine for WotC to license some company to do an MMO based on Dungeons and Dragons. But they should not invest their own money in that partnership (beyond the inevitable costs of finding a partner and working out licensing). If the partner succeeds, WotC can reap the gains in the form of brand awareness and licensing fees; if the partner fails, so be it. The MMO space is far too competitive to gamble a big chunk of D&D's capital on.
 

It's been almost exactly one year and we have the following products:

...
While a lot of these were developed by outside companies under the supervision of WotC, I still wouldn't call this publishing schedule mothball. What did the other editions look like a year in? Other than the hyperactive releases of 4e, I'm unsure the others would be significantly faster.

The 4e release schedule was slow compared to either 2E, 3.0, or 3.5. I'm only going for the first partial year for 2E for reasons that will be obvious.

1E: Taking 1978 (i.e. before the DMG was released) we had:
B1: In Search of the unknown
D1: Descent into the Depths of the Earth
D2: Shrine of the Kuo-Toa
D3: Vault of the Drow
G1: Stedding of the Hill Giant Chief
G2: The Glacial Rift of the Frost Giant Jarl
G3: Hall of the Fire Giant King
S1: Tomb of Horrors
??: Quest for the Fazzlewood
Plus the original Red Box (not the famous one), the PHB and MM. Plus Dragon Magazine.

1E was faster - and that was before D&D really took off. (1979 was leaner until you look at the names - White Plume Mountain, Village of Hommlet, Keep on the Borderlands).

2E is the shovelware edition with the absurdly hyperactive release schedule. Taking just 1989 (i.e. the equivalent of 2014)
PHB
DMG
Monstrous Compendium Volumes 1-3 and the Dragonlance supplement
WG8-12 (Five World of Greyhawk modules)
NN: Terrible Trouble at Tragidore
B11: King's Festival
B12: Queen's Harvest
DLE1-3 (3 Dragonlance modules)
GAZ 11, 12 (2 Mystara modules)
OA 6,7 (2 Oriental Adventures Modules)
The Complete Fighter's Handbook
The Complete Priest's Handbook
Plus Dungeon and Dragon magazines

Now that's a hyperactive release schedule!

3.0 I'm going to take both 2000 and 2001.
PHB
DMG
MM
Hero Builder's Guidebook
Enemies and Allies
Defenders of the Faith
Manual of the Planes
Oriental Adventures
Psionics Handbook
Song and Silence
Sword and Fist
Tome and Blood
The Sunless Citadel
The Forge of Fury
The Fright at Tristor
Return to the Temple of Elemental Evil
The Speaker in Dreams
The Standing Stone
Heart of Nightfang Spire
Deep Horizon
Plus Dungeon and Dragon's monthly output and a further eighteen(!) free downloadable adventures

3.5 was little slower. 2003 and 2004 this time:
PHB
DMG
MM
Draconomicon
Fiend Folio
Ghostwalk
Minatures Handbook
Savage Species (OK, so produced before 3.5 but deliberately 3.5 compatable)
Arms and Equipment Guide
Book of Exalted Deeds.
Complete Warrior

Now into 2004
Complete Arcane
Complete Divine
XPH
Frostburn
Libris Mortis
Races of Destiny
Races of Stone
Unearthed Arcana

That said the 3.5 adventure release schedule was only two published hardbacks (and a dozen free web adventures) across 2003-4

4e was only about that speed.
Before the end of 2009 they published
PHB1
DMG1
MM1
Martial Power 1
Arcane Power
Divine Power
DMG2
MM2
PHB2
Adventurers' Vault
Player's Strategy Guide
Forgotten Realms (2 volumes)
Eberron (2 Volumes)
H1-H3 (ack!)
P1-P3
E1-E3
Plus the D&D Insider articles.

5E is far, far, far the slowest release schedule since 1E. In the heyday of 2e they were producing an average of six books per month.
 

Patrick McGill

First Post
The 4e release schedule was slow compared to either 2E, 3.0, or 3.5. I'm only going for the first partial year for 2E for reasons that will be obvious.

1E: Taking 1978 (i.e. before the DMG was released) we had:
B1: In Search of the unknown
D1: Descent into the Depths of the Earth
D2: Shrine of the Kuo-Toa
D3: Vault of the Drow
G1: Stedding of the Hill Giant Chief
G2: The Glacial Rift of the Frost Giant Jarl
G3: Hall of the Fire Giant King
S1: Tomb of Horrors
??: Quest for the Fazzlewood
Plus the original Red Box (not the famous one), the PHB and MM. Plus Dragon Magazine.

1E was faster - and that was before D&D really took off. (1979 was leaner until you look at the names - White Plume Mountain, Village of Hommlet, Keep on the Borderlands).

2E is the shovelware edition with the absurdly hyperactive release schedule. Taking just 1989 (i.e. the equivalent of 2014)
PHB
DMG
Monstrous Compendium Volumes 1-3 and the Dragonlance supplement
WG8-12 (Five World of Greyhawk modules)
NN: Terrible Trouble at Tragidore
B11: King's Festival
B12: Queen's Harvest
DLE1-3 (3 Dragonlance modules)
GAZ 11, 12 (2 Mystara modules)
OA 6,7 (2 Oriental Adventures Modules)
The Complete Fighter's Handbook
The Complete Priest's Handbook
Plus Dungeon and Dragon magazines

Now that's a hyperactive release schedule!

3.0 I'm going to take both 2000 and 2001.
PHB
DMG
MM
Hero Builder's Guidebook
Enemies and Allies
Defenders of the Faith
Manual of the Planes
Oriental Adventures
Psionics Handbook
Song and Silence
Sword and Fist
Tome and Blood
The Sunless Citadel
The Forge of Fury
The Fright at Tristor
Return to the Temple of Elemental Evil
The Speaker in Dreams
The Standing Stone
Heart of Nightfang Spire
Deep Horizon
Plus Dungeon and Dragon's monthly output and a further eighteen(!) free downloadable adventures

3.5 was little slower. 2003 and 2004 this time:
PHB
DMG
MM
Draconomicon
Fiend Folio
Ghostwalk
Minatures Handbook
Savage Species (OK, so produced before 3.5 but deliberately 3.5 compatable)
Arms and Equipment Guide
Book of Exalted Deeds.
Complete Warrior

Now into 2004
Complete Arcane
Complete Divine
XPH
Frostburn
Libris Mortis
Races of Destiny
Races of Stone
Unearthed Arcana

That said the 3.5 adventure release schedule was only two published hardbacks (and a dozen free web adventures) across 2003-4

4e was only about that speed.
Before the end of 2009 they published
PHB1
DMG1
MM1
Martial Power 1
Arcane Power
Divine Power
DMG2
MM2
PHB2
Adventurers' Vault
Player's Strategy Guide
Forgotten Realms (2 volumes)
Eberron (2 Volumes)
H1-H3 (ack!)
P1-P3
E1-E3
Plus the D&D Insider articles.

5E is far, far, far the slowest release schedule since 1E. In the heyday of 2e they were producing an average of six books per month.

Wow! I concede my point then, I was very much mistaken.
 


Jeff Carlsen

Adventurer
The most important thing to do is to get people playing and keep them playing. Every once in a while, you can sell a major product to a large number of players, but I suspect it will be more sustainable to sell small things to active players. Miniatures, comics, dice, novels, etc. Thos doesn't preclude the option to sell the occasional large product, but there are diminishing returns on those.

That's why I think cycling through settings could work. The goal is to keep the game fresh.
 

DEFCON 1

Legend
Supporter
In order for the game to keep going for as long as possible... the game has to produce two resources. One is revenue, the second is relevancy. The game has to provide a certain level of revenue for the publisher for as long as possible, and the game has to keep itself relevant to the public’s eye for as long as possible as well (before people lose focus on it and move on to other things.) As soon as either of these two resources gets "used up"... the lifespan of the game shortens quickly and then dies.

The first is revenue. The publisher of the game determines how much money has to be brought in on a quarterly / yearly basis in order for the game to be "solvent" in their eyes and worth continuing to support. Once they’ve determined that... they have to make sure they release just enough product to hit that revenue line on a quarterly / yearly basis. Produce too much product too quickly and you make a killing in a particular quarter / year... but you are withdrawing potential money out of the subsequent years. If that means holding back potential products that first year so that their revenue's eventual arrival is a quarter or year down the line (because the products thus far released have already reached the quota the company had set for revenue), then you do so. You don't pick the pockets of Years 2, 3 and 4 to line the purse of Year 1. That doesn't do the company any good. You produce just enough in Year 1 so that you have more potential "quality" product for Year 2... then Year 3, then Year 4 (and so on). After all... each subsequent product is going to see a financial diminishing of returns, so you do not want to blow all your big stuff early. Sure, it makes Year 1 fantastic... but Year 4 is then doing to be a dead zone, and then whelp! Time to start work on another game I guess!

Then the second resource-- relevancy. Keeping the product in the public eye. Making sure the game *means* something-- both to those who are already playing it, and also to those who currently do not.

For those that already are playing it... it means supporting the game enough so that the players continue to do so. Make them want to continue playing it. So their campaigns stay active. So their desire to play the game keeps the game active-- relevant-- in their everyday life. So they continue talking about the game, stump for the game, hype the game to others. The longer the publisher keeps the game relevant by making players want to keep playing it... the players continue to be the best "advertising" the game could possibly have.

And that player "advertising" goes along with the second half of relevancy-- getting more eyeballs on the game overall so that those who do not yet play it can still find it, see it, and hopefully potentially start playing it. And this resource is also a difficult balancing act-- not enough advertising and relevancy and no one knows the game still exists, too much advertising and people start tuning it out.

And when I say "advertising", I mean more than just actual "ads", I also mean what is currently known as "brand awareness". Keeping the name of the game within focus for as many people as possible. Seeing the game in bookstores; hearing the name of the game online; seeing videos of people playing it; seeing the name on tee-shirts, video games, board games, tv, film; and most especially hearing stories from other people who ARE playing it. All of these things keep the name ‘D&D’ in the periphery of most people’s focus, and all it takes is maintaining that periphery so that occasionally someone will turn to it, focus on it, and then make the decision to try it out. You're never going to get huge influxes of new players (and at this point in history it's kind of silly to expect to), but so long as the game is relevant, you will in fact get the occasional one. And that is one more than you had before.

Should you manage to do both… hit your revenue targets each and every year consistently, and maintain the game’s focus so that it always remains pleasurably within sight of as many eyeballs as possible… the game has a better chance of sustaining itself further along the timeline.
 
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Tony Vargas

Legend
I'm gonna flip this around without reading the full thread, because there is something that we players and GMs can actually do. It doesn't take any more support from WotC.

Play the game. Introduce more people to the game. Repeat as necessary.
Yeah, been doing that for a long while now...

I don't think that would go over well. Many MMOs with massive budgets and popular licenses have failed to take over the market away from the current leader. Part of the problem, I think, is sort of a population inertia. A lot of people don't come keep going back to WoW because it is absolutely the best MMO ever made, but because they know more people playing WoW than any other MMO. You can make the best absolutely more awesome-est MMO that someone has ever seen, but if you can't get their friends over as well then you haven't really even won them over.
Ironically, that sort of 'inertia' is prettymuch how D&D has kept it's top spot.
 

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