4 years of 5E on Amazon: same old same old

[abirdcall]

Marvel is as big now as D&D was during it's fad years (though the Marvel fad has gone on longer than the D&D fad did).

uhhhh....I don't even have the words.

 

[Jester David]

uhhhh....I don't even have the words.

No kidding.

The least successful MCU movie was The Incredible Hulk, which made $134,806,913 domestically and $263,427,551 worldwide. Released a decade ago, inflation is also a factor.
Even if Amazon doubles sales of D&D compared to retail stores, it made more money in just the US in three months than D&D made made in a year.
And then you consider something like the Infinity War, which 2 billion dollars, or 20x what D&D made! And that's just the theatrical release and not considering the myriad merchandise (action figures, video games, DVDs, posters, T-shirts, Lego, etc)

Marvel is comparable to Star Wars now.

 

[darjr]

Greylord its time to put up or shut up. Who are you? Post citations. If you were some joe random reader would you believe you without that?

 

[Parmandur]

It's select Walmarts. I can go into just about any Walmart these days and find the shelf with select MtG (at least 3/4 of the stores). D&D is VERY RARE if it at all (it was at one time, but currently, I haven't seen on in stores for a long time, extending from California in the West to South Carolina and Washington DC in the East. It MAY be in stores, but it is definitely not a chain wide thing. Individual managers have some freedom to stock so a manager may have used this personal preference, but it's not carried as something distributed by national typically).

In regards to numbers given...

We have numbers for the first two years of 3e (first one they released, second one came out due to some rather crazy scandals that hit WotC and numbers came out with the news related to that).

We have approximations for 2e PHBs, and some financials on that.

For Hasbro, it tried but never became a core brand, so it wasn't really reported. If D&D is doing that much better now, that means sales should also be doing that much better (of course, if the entire RPG hobby is only 55 million, it STILL probably wouldn't be a mainstay Hasbro brand, but if the guesses that 3e had 5 million players and it made somewhere between 30 to 40 million a year [at least for one year] than it stands to reason that with 9 to 10 million players WotC would be doing a LOT better than that currently).

I even get financials on MtG (and I think many of the quarterlies and annuals are made public) and other major Hasbro brands and divisions if I read reports. If D&D is getting that big...why not?




NO, I do not think they are lying. I think (just like people did for other press releases made during 3e and 4e) that people are reading into it FAR more than what is actually being said.

I don't have a problem thinking that 9 to 10 million people are playing D&D. I actually think that's very possible. It could even be 12 million or more world wide. I have no idea how they came on those numbers, but I don't have a problem with it. It's like I don't have a problem when they claimed there were 25 million AD&D/D&D gamers in the past.

It's when people extrapolate from that to say that it is MORE popular now than ever before. Statements have been made by WotC that I deem accurate that indicate that 5e has now outsold 3e - 4e PHBs combined. I could believe that. However, when people start making claims (and most likely because they never actually saw just how crazy a fad 1e was in the early 80s...which is okay since if one was old enough to experience it, let's say 15, so they were aware of how crazy the US was about it at that time, they'd be in their late 40s and early 50s for the YOUNG people who barely could comprehend it...for those who really experienced it they would be in their 60s and 70s. Many of those ARE DEAD. Those who are alive, while a majority stopped playing the game and have never touched it since, and the most others are not active in the scene at all. The one that has perhaps the MOST knowledge was chased off and out of the RPG scene (which was unfortunate because he is one of the best and most loyal guys I know of) by the new people in it.

From what I've actually seen WotC say and state, I really don't have a problem with it.

The only difficulties I have are the things that people extrapolate and then say WotC stated, when I didn't see WotC say anything of the sort. OR, when they say things that are not really what WotC meant, but think that's what WotC meant or should have said instead of what actually was stated.

5e is popular and people are excited about it. That I get. I think it's great. 5e is a great game. It's a great edition. It is probably the best selling version in the past 20 years. I don't have a problem with people accepting that triumph and being happy about it.

I do take issue with those trying to state things that I have yet to see. There was NO WHERE in the US that I really could go which didn't have D&D on the shelf in their department stores during the fad. Even in the late 80s it was carried in many toy stores and elsewhere.

Pokémon of the late 90s and early 2000s probably was as big (if people can remember that) as D&D was in it's fad years. Marvel is as big now as D&D was during it's fad years (though the Marvel fad has gone on longer than the D&D fad did). I just don't see that type of market penetration or craziness about 5e as was with any of the major fads that hit the US. 5e I think is the biggest D&D has been in decades, but it's not national FAD big as of yet.

So when people start claiming it's bigger than these types of fads...yeah...I'm NOT impressed.

Reason I say I want to see the numbers is NOT to disprove WotC, but to use them to back up what I've heard them say and shut those who try to claim MORE than what WotC states down. If I'm wrong though, and the numbers support what people state (despite what WotC does NOT) than, hey, I'd also be willing to see that. Hard numbers would need to be something like number of copies sold, or the dollar amounts in Wotc sold (as compared, let's say to what MtG is doing, or other WotC Divisions).

I expect if we saw the numbers it would show that MtG is still the giant and D&D is nowhere close to it, BUT it might also show that since D&D is such a small department, that it is more profitable per man hour (not necessarily though). I also expect that if the entire RPG market is actually only 55 million, it still has not hit as big as AD&D was in it's hey day yet.

PS: (if 5e is sold for another 5 years I DO expect that it will sell more than AD&D did overall with corebooks simply due to the volume being sold over that length of time vs. how much AD&D fluctuated from 1978 to 83 and then 83 to 88. At least as long as it continues on it's current trajectory that it's been going on for the past few years). (that is a personal conjecture of course).

A lot of odd claims here, but I'll tackle a couple. Nobody is saying D&D is remotely Marvel levels: Black Panther sold ~75 million individual tickets in North America, Infinity War sold ~73 million and the modest Ant-Man and the Wasp sold ~ 23 million (assuming the average $9.27 price for an American movie ticket in 2018).

D&D is minor next to that, certainly. It would need to grow several times over to reach Marvel levels of cultural penetration. Maybe, in time, if there are cool movies, shows and so on.

But right now, about 15 million North Americans are playing (not sure where you get the 9-10 million number). As opposed to the sourced quote from Gygax estimating about five million in the book years.

Also understand, D&D can be absolutely bigger now, but have been relatively bigger in the 80's, as the population has grown, but I doubt it.

 

[abirdcall]

Also understand, D&D can be absolutely bigger now, but have been relatively bigger in the 80's, as the population has grown, but I doubt it.

D&D was news in the 80s.

It isn't news now.

That's the main difference.

 

[Mistwell]

This debate has gotten silly. If people are set on believing D&D isn't doing better than it did in the 80s, there is no data that can ever change their mind which any public company like Hasbro would ever release.

 

[Parmandur]

This debate has gotten silly. If people are set on believing D&D isn't doing better than it did in the 80s, there is no data that can ever change their mind which any public company like Hasbro would ever release.

Listen, if it isn't being sold in Toys R Us right now, this second, it cannot be real.

Oh, wait...

 

[cmad1977]

All I know, having lived in the 2 nd largest city in North America for my entire life(40 odd years) is that I have NEVER seen D&D in more stores or played by so many as I do now.

The 80s didn’t have anywheres near the number of players that there are now.

 

[GreyLord]

This debate has gotten silly. If people are set on believing D&D isn't doing better than it did in the 80s, there is no data that can ever change their mind which any public company like Hasbro would ever release.

There would be. If those of us who actually were older than 20 and saw the same thing going on now that we saw then...no data would even be necessary!

When I say it was like Marvel movies are now for a year or two of D&D...it was absolutely like that, at least for market penetration and what you saw in popular culture. (that's WHY D&D has remained in public consciousness ever since, with a fad as big as it was, it's kind of kept the niche all to it's own. Even when it was dying if someone was playing some game with odd dice people would assume it was D&D and call every RPG playing as D&D. The fad is when D&D became slang for everything under the sun relating to weird dice and RPGs as...well...D&D. It's continued with that slang over the years. Everyone and their joe was either playing it or hating it for a few months in some parts of the US).

It WAS big. You couldn't avoid it if you wanted to.

And yes, it was on the news.

If I saw it like that now, I could absolutely believe it was bigger.

Barring that, I'd love to see evidence for some of the wildest claims people are making about 5e.

The reason I say 9-10 million is that is what I've HEARD. I haven't seen the source people are quoting for 15 million from Mearls. Post a link.

I've heard a LOT of people exaggerating and saying things I haven't heard WotC say.

If WotC said it, and you post a link, I can actually see what was said and see if it was in the context people are claiming of if they actually meant something entirely different, or said it with just the right twist that it says one thing, but people are saying another thing. I haven't seen ANYTHING that says what some are claiming WotC states...but I would be interest and I'm certain some of the higher ups at Hasbro may be as well. 15 million in N/A puts it at or above MtG levels. If it's at that point and things are missing in the PR and marketing departments like the seem to be on this...well...if execs find out...could turn interesting real quick. This is NOT something Marketing and PR miss normally, nor do the higher ups miss, nor do the stock owners if nothing official from Hasbro has noted this.

The ENTIRE market supposedly is 55 million? In older reports. That's less than in the 2e days for JUST 2e D&D (granted that DOES include novel sales, but novel sales took a nosedive greater than anyone anticipated finally).

If the profits for D&D was simply 27 million for 1e (and not the higher guesses) than, rated for inflation, 5e is STILL not that big.

So, yes, if people are going to start making these claims about 5e that even certain individuals in relation to Hasbro have not seen, YES, post the links so I can judge for myself what exactly was said and what is being said.

I think much of this is misinterpretation from a very enthusiastic fanbase. If not though, it's going to make me start wondering what's going on between Hasbro and WotC if this is the case.

But POST THE LINKS so I can see these statements. (Edit: Before more people post the single link to the source, I found the source on my own [and then someone posted a link below it] so, yes, I have the source to the information people have been raving about now]

I'll see where I go from there.

 

[darjr]

Mistwell under 20?! Ha, hear that Mistwell! Get off my lawn!