D&D 4E 4E in 2008? Fact or Fiction?

[DaveMage]

I just have this gut feeling that it's going to be announced at GenCon. I'm hoping I'm wrong. Especially since I really expect 4e to be the end of the D20 license -- I can't see WotC keeping that around for a new edition.

Really? Unless something else takes its place, I can't see them getting rid of the d20 license. That would be something that really might harm a significant number of the RPG community. Not to mention the fact that many d20 fans, such as myself, would be very unhappy. WotC brought many people back to D&D with 3E, I doubt they want to do anything that might drive some of that fan base away again.

Why do you think they may get rid of the d20 license?

 

[Gez]

If they get rid of the d20 license, they risk to have their new D&D competing against it.

There are a large number of D&D-like OGL games around. both Everquests, Arcana Evolved, Blue Rose... I can't list them all. People could support those new games, who would still be, overall, compatible with most other d20 sourcebooks, including official D&D3e sourcebooks.

 

[philreed]

If they get rid of the d20 license, they risk to have their new D&D competing against it.

There are a large number of D&D-like OGL games around. both Everquests, Arcana Evolved, Blue Rose... I can't list them all. People could support those new games, who would still be, overall, compatible with most other d20 sourcebooks, including official D&D3e sourcebooks.

I don't think they'd have any serious problems with competition.

Again, I don't know anything. Period. All I can say is what I feel in my gut.

 

[Ranger REG]

10 years from what? 3E was relased in the Fall of 2000.

And you wonder why United States is behind the rest of the world when it comes to math.

Kids.

 

[Ranger REG]

3e came out in 2000.

That's 5 years ago. I think that's a pretty long time. 8 years between actual edition changes isn't terribly bad.

Not to me. This is one advantage a pen-n-paper game have over one version of a videogame, you get longer playability.

Stop convincing Hasbro and WotC that they should follow the videogame model (roll out a new version every 18-24 months).

 

[philreed]

Why do you think they may get rid of the d20 license?

Because I don't think it had any significant positive effect for the company.

 

[Ranger REG]

2008 seems like a reasonable (if disliked) deadline.

2008 is a reasonable time to begin the alpha stage of core rulebook development. After two years, it would be a reasonable time to begin beta development and start leaking information to the public. Also a time to begin playtesting.

2011 is the time to release the final products.

 

[Ranger REG]

Because I don't think it had any significant positive effect for the company.

It had in the beginning.

But now publishers have moved away and started getting into SRD-based standalone products without the d20 label. That and the fact that majority of D&D fans only care about one label: Dungeons & Dragons.

 

[Rasyr]

hehe... here we go again....

When will 4e come out?? Through doing the math two different ways based upon information given, I have come up with 2 possible dates, 2006 or 2008.

3e came out in 2000, and 3.5 was originally supposed to be out in 2005 (5 years after 3e). By this logic, 4e should most likely come out in 2010.

However, WotC, at the bequest of Hasbro, reduced the interval by 2 years, and 3.5 came out in 2003. Now, if the interval was also reduced between 3.5 and 4e, we can expect 4e in 2006. If the interval (of 5 years) wasn't reduced, then it is likely that you will see 4e in 2008. That is the logic behind how I came up with those possible dates.

Personally, I think we will see 4e in 2006. I also doubt that it will be announced until GTS (GAMA Trade Show) in early 2006. By making the announcement at GTS, they are able to notify many retailers and distributors all at once and still have several months to ramp up to their release date (I expect GTS to be the time of announcement no matter what year it actually gets released).

Like Phil, I also think that 4e will not be released via the OGL. I am also of the opinion that it is quite likely to be even more mini-oriented than the current version. Hasbro is seeing the success of MageKnight and of Games Workshop's Warhammer minis-oriented games and they see the continuing success of CCGs. All product lines with periodical releases that heavily rely on collectible and "toy-like" aspects which Hasbro likes...

 

[philreed]

I am also of the opinion that it is quite likely to be even more mini-oriented than the current version.

Absolutely. I can't imagine a 4e that isn't even closer to a minis game than it currently is.