D&D 4E 4E WotC way of saying your fired?

[Gwathlas]

Eric Mona Posted at Pazio that WotC in 1999 wanted to fire all their current customers. But decided not to at that time. Could 4E be an attempt by WotC TO FIRE ALL THE OLD SCHOOL GAMERS!!!FOR NEW SCHOOL MUNKINS!!!http://forums.gleemax.com/showpost.php?p=13938423&postcount=4066 Follow the link to page 9, around the middle of the page!

Alas, it's to late to fire me! I'm taking my money and looking at Mongoose Publishing and staying wiht 3.x. And no more dnd novels. They can muck up the Realm all they want but I won't help them by buying wotc or hasbro products.

 

[coyote6]

Alas, it's to late to fire me! I'm taking my money and looking at Mongoose Publishing

Good god, man! Don't do it! It's not worth it! 4e can't be that badly edited!

At least you aren't desperate enough to go looking for Avalanche Press or Fast Forward Entertainment's d20 books!



But (slightly more) seriously...

I'm taking my money and looking at Mongoose Publishing and staying wiht 3.x.

I'm pretty sure Mongoose hasn't put out a 3.5e product in quite some time; they've been cooking their own flavors of d20, and doing OGL versions of entirely different systems (RuneQuest, the upcoming Traveller).

Of course, they (and dozens of other companies) have massive catalogs of 3.x stuff; it ought to available cheaper soon, too.

 

[Vigilance]

Taken a a group, these nay-sayers are highly relevant to the 4e launch and may be equally relevant to how well 4e sells or doesn't. It's not a "false sense of entitlement."

I saw thread after thread, for DAYS, about how horrible it was that the Great Wheel was going away.

Once the poll was actually up, those who were outraged at the change amounted to less than 25% of the folks on this forum.

It's a very, very, very loud minority in most cases.

 

[SPECTRE666]

And that's what Wotc is banking on - the perception of invincibility. If no one dares to try them, Wotc wins without ever lifting a finger. 4e is, however, not 3x, which was greated with almost universal cheers. And unlike every other transition between editions (3.0 to 3.5 was so close as to not really count), the OGL gives 3rd parties the opportunity to "call out" Wotc. Undoubtedly, it is easier and safer to go with the 4e flow for a company like Paizo. But that's nothing compared to going heads up with Wotc where even a tie is a huge win. Heck. Even loosing to Wotc but making it a squeeker would be a huge win for Paizo. The keys are how fast can Paizo get a 3.75 out the door, will Necromancer go along and can they convince Goodman Games to also join the Paizo Revolution. Its no sure thing but if the stars aligned, I think Paizo would reveal Wotc to be not quite so invincible as everyone thinks and could "win" even if they didn't KO Wotc. To "win" all Paizo and company need do is tie or make it close. Paizo increases its business by 30% - win. Everything else would be gravy.

Since I like beer, I think I'll mosey on over to the Paizo boards.

Maybe WotC is using an intimidate check, or is it a bluff check?

 

[Reynard]

I saw thread after thread, for DAYS, about how horrible it was that the Great Wheel was going away.

Once the poll was actually up, those who were outraged at the change amounted to less than 25% of the folks on this forum.

It's a very, very, very loud minority in most cases.

So you don't think a 25% drop in WotC's business would hurt them? Or that a 25% increase of WotC's business wouldn't benefit a strong competitor like Paizo? Dismissing out of hand a number like 25%, if it ran true across many of the changes 4E was making, would be a significant shift in power away from WotC in ragrds to being the untouchable RPG king. Even if Paizo or whoever din't bring them down, a powerful second tier company like White Wolf might move in for the kill.

The real question is this: could WotC make up that 25% from its new target demographic (presumably the WoW/Guild Wars playing teenagers)?

 

[The Little Raven]

4e is, however, not 3x, which was greated with almost universal cheers.

Uh, no.

3E was met with the same amount of dismay as 4E, because of the same thing: "OMG, we have all these books that are useless now! OMG IT'S WIZARD$ OF THE CA$H! Real D&D uses Thac0!" and crap like that.

And unlike every other transition between editions (3.0 to 3.5 was so close as to not really count), the OGL gives 3rd parties the opportunity to "call out" Wotc.

You are seriously naive if you think that an OGL-using 3rd party of small size can compete with Wizards.

But that's nothing compared to going heads up with Wotc where even a tie is a huge win.

I am more likely to be struck by lightning twice while a mile beneath the Earth's crust than Paizo has of even coming near Wizards going head-to-head. White Wolf can't even go head-to-head with them, and they are way bigger than Paizo... they openly admitted that they had a number of traditional fantasy RPG proposals, but they knew that trying to compete with 4E would be a folly.

Paizo increases its business by 30% - win.

Paizo could increase it's business by 30% and pose absolutely no threat to Wizards, because increasing their business does not necessarily increase their market share in a way that is competitive with the RPG giant.

 

[GreatLemur]

I wouldn't ask for the dawn of 4e to include a conversion guide on how to convert a half-illithid kalashtar totemist/soulknife with a Vow of Poverty into 4e, but I would consider it a good thing to at least get an acknowledgment that 3e characters that are generally core could be turned faithfully and accurately into 4e characters (except gnomes, and druids, and anything else from 3e core that's being omitted).

"Accurately" is probably too much to ask for, since obviously the basic class mechanics are going to be changing a bit, but I'd assume that if your character is, say, a halfling rogue without any particularly exotic feats, it's pretty much assured that you'll be able to produce about as faithful a conversion as between 2e and 3e. But, the thing is, there are enough half-illithid kalashtar totemist/soulknife characters running around out there that it's safest to just advise people to reinterpret or reboot.

My players have got an archery-focused fighter, an illusion-focused sorcerer, a cloistered cleric, a druid, and a warblade, all human. With the exception of the druid's shapeshifting ability, I'm pretty confident I could faithfully remake those PCs for 4e. The sorcerer will probably find himself as a wizard with a brand new usable-at-will attack spell, etc., but I expect everyone would be pretty happy.

But, personally, I'd rather start a whole new campaign, if only because I'm a sucker for worldbuilding.

 

[Maggan]

The keys are how fast can Paizo get a 3.75 out the door, will Necromancer go along and can they convince Goodman Games to also join the Paizo Revolution. Its no sure thing but if the stars aligned, I think Paizo would reveal Wotc to be not quite so invincible as everyone thinks and could "win" even if they didn't KO Wotc. To "win" all Paizo and company need do is tie or make it close. Paizo increases its business by 30% - win. Everything else would be gravy.

Getting a hypothetical 3.75 out of the door, and Goodman Games on the train, is but the first very minor step that would need to be taken. After that, there are at least three major obstacles to dethroning WotC;

1. D&D brand - A Paizo 3.75 would not have support from the strongest brand in tabletop roleplaying. That obstacle in itself would cost millions of millions of dollars to conquer, if Pazio were aiming at a even just a tie.

2. Distribution - WotC has excellent distribution on a large scale. Paizo ... I'm sure they get their stuff out to a lot of places, but I don't think they hold a candle to the WotC/Hasbro distribution machine.

3. Advertising - WotC probably has more money to spend on advertising than Paizo could drum up for the entire hypothetical 3.75 project.

And if they would get a 3.75 out of the door, and it would make a dent in WotC:s armour, they would start facing the same dilemma that WotC does; they can't please everyone. As long as a Paizo 3.75 game is hypothetical, it'll do anything everyone wants it to do. So everyone is pleased. And the more people that buy the game, the voices of discontent grow in strength, just like it does for WotC.

When it would become reality, many gamers would find that there are a lot of things it won't do to address their personal preferences, and thus would become displeased. No one can please everyone, not even Paizo.

And even if e.g. 25% of EN World is enraged about the Great Wheel changes, that doesn't necessarily mean that 25% would abandon D&D for something else. My theory there is that a significant part of that 25% will tag along in the end, eternally voicing their discontent while still playing the game.

Are the rest worth marketing a game to? With the OGL, anyone is free to try. Mongoose is hammering at it with their Conan game, so presumably there is a market for a good d20 game based on 3rd edition. But the size of that market is nowhere near large enough to even trample WotC on its toes, let alone tie D&D as the most popular game out there.

To close this post; I would so totally want Paizo to do 3.75 with Necromancer. That would rock and be a good and cool game, that I would play. I just don't think they will do it. I'd love to be wrong.

/M

 

[Simia Saturnalia]

So you don't think a 25% drop in WotC's business would hurt them? Or that a 25% increase of WotC's business wouldn't benefit a strong competitor like Paizo? Dismissing out of hand a number like 25%, if it ran true across many of the changes 4E was making, would be a significant shift in power away from WotC in ragrds to being the untouchable RPG king. Even if Paizo or whoever din't bring them down, a powerful second tier company like White Wolf might move in for the kill.

The real question is this: could WotC make up that 25% from its new target demographic (presumably the WoW/Guild Wars playing teenagers)?

I think a drop of 25% in customer base would hurt Wizards, certainly.

I think presuming that this ratio of excited 4e fans to angry grognards carries over into the real world is naive at best, particularly in regards to the Great Wheel. My (admittedly anecdotal) experience suggests that most gamers who don't frequent internet gaming forums regularly don't even think about the Great Wheel unless the DM specifically brings up its planes. They think about the Abyss and the Hells, sometimes Gehenna, because that's where fiends come from, and fiends are vulnerable to smites and holy words and they're made out of XP and gold pieces.

 

[Reynard]

I think a drop of 25% in customer base would hurt Wizards, certainly.

I think presuming that this ratio of excited 4e fans to angry grognards carries over into the real world is naive at best, particularly in regards to the Great Wheel. My (admittedly anecdotal) experience suggests that most gamers who don't frequent internet gaming forums regularly don't even think about the Great Wheel unless the DM specifically brings up its planes. They think about the Abyss and the Hells, sometimes Gehenna, because that's where fiends come from, and fiends are vulnerable to smites and holy words and they're made out of XP and gold pieces.

The question is really who are they expecting to sell books to -- the people that play regualrly, or the people that buy books regularly. Because if they change the mechanics and flavor so much it doesn't much resemble D&D anymore, those people that upgraded to 3E and/or got back in the game, but never bought much else aside from the occassional Dragon magazine or adventure, are going to do a spit take when they upgrade to 4E. if the target are those people who have or will potentially jump on the supplement treadmill, the success rate will be much higher because those people are already aclimated to at least a lot of the seeds of 4E.

And that's the thing. 3E was, when it appeared, "very D&D" and has become less so through 3.5's life. 4E takes all that stuff -- warlocks and reserve feats and powers and MMO influence -- up to 11 (apparently, by the limited but consistent evidence we have). Everyone is always talking about the 2 million or whatever games out there, and how the internet community isn't representative of the average gamer. But those average gamers don't buy supplements, either, and they play the D&D, tone and flavor wise, that's been around for 30 years.

Thus, I think WotC is actively seeking a different market demographic. And it ain't me. So I feel I am perfectly justified in looking at what they are offering and saying, "That ain't D&D."