5+ years of ICV2 Rankings - A retrospective

[Gundark]

Agreed.

Looking at the current new releases, and upcoming releases I predict Spring 2014.

First, I think we'll see a weak Spring at retail for RPG. The Next launch is going to cast a shadow over RPG spending. Most spending will be done by habitual spenders - experimenters (and of course folks who don't give a rat's tail about fantasy RPG -- which is the minority).

1. Pathfinder ("D&D" sells, even under a different brand)
2. Star Wars - FFG: although I think their agressive release schedule is going to come back and bite them, probably off the Top 5 by Fall 2014.
3. Numerera - filling out the core books will get some significant buy in, especially since the market's on hold for D&D 5e
4. Dr. Who - Netflix is getting this IP in front of a lot of young and old eyeballs. Not a traditional RPG but it'll get some spill-over.
5. Shadowrun - only other game with a solid spring release schedule.

13th Age almost made the list, but I think it's very regional.
WotC simply doesn't have a single product to shelf until summer.

The Spring report won't come out until Summer and by then I probably won't care to keep track anymore.

Numerera may make the list, but #3? Dr. Who at #4? Seriously? I agree that 13th Age is more of a niche product. I would expect Iron Kingdoms to stay on the list.

 

[Morrus]

Comments from Monte on Numenera sales:

https://plus.google.com/app/basic/stream/z13nchurbxr5wvz2f23syp2h4sbvfduoq04

ICv2, of course, is the closest thing the game industry has to real journalism anymore, and I truly respect them. And it's awesome and meaningful that Fate is on their list, and it's well deserved. The Escapist's drawing of conclusions regarding Numenera not being on the list, however, is just silly. As silly as looking at the movies nominated for Best Picture Oscar and then saying that a movie not on that list must not be worth watching.

Anyway, while I'm sure you know all of this, for a bit of perspective for everyone else reading, it's important to note that few publishers in the game industry releases sales figures publicly, so ICv2's stats are actually simply based on a survey of a random handful of hobby store owners. That means that the stats are broad generalizations, to say the least (but they're all the industry has). We have no idea what the relationship between #1 and #2 on their list, for example, or what #6 through #10 look like. Just as importantly, they also only cover core hobby sales--not direct sales, book trade sales, online sales, and certainly not ebook sales. In other words, being on the list means you're doing well. Not being on the list doesn't mean the opposite. For example, I personally am dubious of the use of ICv2 data to measure Pathfinder vs. D&D that people have been doing for the last couple of years, since so much of both Pathfinder and D&D sales come from non-hobby sources nowadays.

In the interest of some transparency though (partially because you, Fred, are often really open and generous with info), I'll say this. We had just under 5,000 Numenera backers, some getting the corebook in pdf, and some also in print. We had hoped that, at this point--about the six month mark--we'd be at about 10,000 customers (I use "customers" rather than "sales" because I'm attempting to not count someone who got the print and pdf version twice, which is difficult but ultimately worthwhile). That would mean by this time, we'd have it in the hands of the KS backers, plus an equal number of non-backers. As of a few weeks ago, we were at an estimated 18,000 customers. As you know, that's pretty nice for a six month period of an rpg unrelated to D&D. We've had to go to reprint on the print corebook six months earlier than we planned, but frankly it's really ebook sales that have really exceeded expectations. And I won't lie, the tie to the Torment: Tides of Numenera game (and their own phenomenal KS) has been a nice part of that. We're very thankful to be partnered with inXile. With that game not even out yet, as good as Numenera's sales are, it's possible that we haven't even seen Numenera's actual surge. (It's humbling but undeniable that the reach of a CRPG is an order of magnitude greater than a tabletop's reach.

 

[Gundark]

So big with PDF sales, hence them being in the top spots with drivethrurpg, not as much with the physical books.

Also Monte really casts doubt into reading too much into the info from ICV2

 

[Jester David]

What I find most interesting in those charts is all the other RPGs that came and went, like Dresden Files. I had forgotten it had done that well. And the appearance of Marvel Heroic which showed up, vanished, and was then cancelled. And the Song of Ice and Fire RPG doing so well years before Game of Thrones hit the air.

That tells me no other RPG sells better than D&D, they just sell more when D&D put next to nothing for sales in FLGS. Even then it managed to remain in top #5, quite surprising. Check out late 2014-2015 ICv2 when 5E release and sales start to fly, how quickly it will take back #1 position.

Something to keep in mind that in Q3 2010 (when Pathfinder and D&D tie) coves GenCon when Paizo released the Advanced Player's Guide and WotC released the Monster Manual 3 and Dark Sun plus the Red Box. Not exactly light stuff.
During Q4 Paizo slips back into #2 and releases the Bestiary 2 while WotC releases most of Essentials. And in Q1, D&D continues with Essentials while Paizo releases not much. But in Q2 Paizo releases Ultimate Magic while D&D cancels and delays a few books. That's when D&D really loses the crown.

It's hard to tell if D&D lost the #1 slot because of fewer books or if Pathfinder was really doing that well every time it released a player-centric book, or if Pathfinder hit #1 because its sales rose or if WotC's sales just dropped that much. We'll never know.
Regardless, WotC was still going full steam for Q3 2010 and wasn't doing so well against the best Paizo had to offer.

Still, I remember back in 2010 and 2011 when those charts were released and everyone on the WotC boards was tripping over themselves calling them inaccurate and not representational of their stores. Claiming Pathfinder was doing better and that 4e wasn't an unbridled success was heresy.
Time makes fools of us all.

 

[Jester David]

1. Pathfinder ("D&D" sells, even under a different brand)
2. Star Wars - FFG: although I think their agressive release schedule is going to come back and bite them, probably off the Top 5 by Fall 2014.
3. Numerera - filling out the core books will get some significant buy in, especially since the market's on hold for D&D 5e
4. Dr. Who - Netflix is getting this IP in front of a lot of young and old eyeballs. Not a traditional RPG but it'll get some spill-over.
5. Shadowrun - only other game with a solid spring release schedule.

A third of Numenera's players got their book from the Kickstarter, which will not be reflected in ICv2, so while it's undeniably a hit it's absent from the chart. ICv2 is the "Top 40 radio" of charts while Numenera (and 13th Age) are the college radio hits.

Doctor Who doesn't stand a chance.
They had their big 50th Anniversary book released in November, when everyone was abuzz about the show between that and the Christmas special. But the new Doctor won't be out until the fall so the show is off the radar, and it will be months after that before the RPG can reflect Capaldi's Doctor.
It's simply a niche game.

 

[adamc]

I tend to buy all of my materials via the web, which makes me doubtful that FLGS stats are really reliable in this day and age.

 

[jodyjohnson]

Numerera may make the list, but #3? Dr. Who at #4? Seriously? I agree that 13th Age is more of a niche product. I would expect Iron Kingdoms to stay on the list.

So what's your guess?

I think Spring is going to be so weak that almost anyone could make the top 5. With Paizo pushing back their releases they may slip to #2 (possible but not likely).

 

[jodyjohnson]

A third of Numenera's players got their book from the Kickstarter, which will not be reflected in ICv2, so while it's undeniably a hit it's absent from the chart. ICv2 is the "Top 40 radio" of charts while Numenera (and 13th Age) are the college radio hits.

Make your prediction.

 

[jodyjohnson]

What I find most interesting in those charts is all the other RPGs that came and went, like Dresden Files. I had forgotten it had done that well. And the appearance of Marvel Heroic which showed up, vanished, and was then cancelled. And the Song of Ice and Fire RPG doing so well years before Game of Thrones hit the air.

When the rankings are all lined up it is much more obvious when the games have their run and then fall off the Top 5.

 

[Jester David]

Make your prediction.

ICv2’s “Spring” likely covers January to April, and Summer May-Aug. Unless they just don’t report Quarter 4.
Predicting the Spring is easy. Honestly, the order might change but the games are likely going to stay the same. The Summer is harded.

Pathfinder is still going strong and has no real competition, so it’ll retain the #1 spot in the Spring despite having few books until the end of the period. In the Summer, Paizo has four full months to sell product including three hardcovers (Inner Sea Gods, Strategy Guide, and Advanced Class Guide). The first comes out in late April so sales will likely be split between Spring and Summer, and the last comes out in late August so it will be split between Summer and Fall.
However, Pathfinder is likely reaching saturation: its sales might slip as people decide they have enough content for the game. Even ignoring 3e, PF is the oldest game on the chart.

The Spring is going to hurt D&D. There are no more reprints, the adventures are going digital, and distributors are running low on books from older editions so those books are becoming scarcer on store shelves. While D&D will likely spike back up the chart in Summer, it may not hit the #1 spot. D&D will only have weeks to sell D&D5 (excluding the more niche Starter Set). So it might not quite match Pathfinder’s longer sales.
A lot of people will no longer buy D&D sight unseen, waiting until initial reviews are out and they can look through a copy in stores. Stores might also be wary and order fewer copies than 3e or 4e: if the game is a hit, it might sell out locally, making reviewing store copies harder. Furthermore, the high price point will push people to buy online rather in stores, which will hurt the ICv2 ranking. This might delay D&D really regaining the #1 spot until Fall.

Star Wars is still going strong. They’ve moved from “Edge of the Empire” to “Age of Rebellion”. That Beta will keep the game going strong in 2014 and the release of the hardcover in Q2 (April-June) will help them score some traffic. Given they’ll have months to sell their book before GenCon, it’s possible the game might even manage to retain the #2 spot against D&D.
Although, Paizo is changing up their Spring releases, with a campaign-specific god book and a book aimed at new players, while FFG is releasing a Rebel Alliance specific Star Wars product that doubles as a starting book for the RPG. It’s not impossible that Star Wars might edge out Pathfinder for the #1 slot in the Spring.

Fate Core is still going strong, and building some buzz. There are more and more games using the system. It’s the rules lite alternative to the OGL, which makes it appealing. It’s very likely to retain a spot on the chart, but it might drop to #4 or #5 depending on if it continues to sell at the same rate or reaches saturation.

Iron Kingdoms has some good staying power, tied to Warmachine and Hordes. It’s been present on the charts for some time. It’s not a game that’s really on my radar so I’m not sure if it will hold steady, surge, or drop. I have no idea of it has releases planned. But the Warmachine is the #3 on ICv2’s non-collectible mini game chart while Hordes is #5. So sales of both likely overlap, pushing up the related RPG.

The one game I see hitting the chart is 13th Age. It’s high on the ENWorld Hot Games chart, ahead of Numenera and many other name games. It might be able to push out Fate Core if that game spikes and then drops. But that depends on if Pelgrane Press can keep the books in stores; they’re a smaller publisher, so printing the books is slow and expensive.
Not that Numenera might not surprise people. As word of mouth spreads and the game keeps selling it might surprise everyone with its popularity.

I see the Spring 2014 being:
#1 Pathfinder
#2 Star Wars
#3 Iron Kingdoms
#4 Fate Core
#5 Dungeons & Dragons

If Age of Rebellion drops in April, Star Wars might sneak into #1.
Fate might also drop, being replaced by 13th Age, likely in the #5 slot with D&D moving to #4.

I’m guessing Summer 2014 will be:
#1 Pathfinder
#2 Dungeons & Dragons
#3 Star Wars
#4 Iron Kingdoms
#5 (Wild Card)

But it won’t shock me if D&D or Star Wars sneak into the #1 slot. Fate or 13th Age might be able to snag a #5 slot. Or something else.