Mercurius
Legend
All of this has been discussed many times before, but given that we now know the full publication schedule for 2021--at least for major products (books)--I thought it was a good time to update my chart and start a thread.
The Chart: D&D Major Products/Books, 2014-21
Some of you might remember my chart that I've shared a few times over years, which I've updated to include 2021 books.
There still might be a surprise or two for 2021, but I think we're fairly certain that the book schedule is complete. Presumably we won't know anything about 2022's releases for at least several months - maybe not until early next year (depending upon when 2022's first book is released...March?).
5E's Patterns of Publication
In the chart above, we can see some clear patterns:
Approaching 2024: Completing a Cycle?
Much has been spoken about 2024 as the 50th anniversary of D&D and, to a lesser extent, the 10th anniversary of 5E. While nothing is guaranteed, most seem to agree that we'll see at least revised core rulebooks, if not a new edition. Only time will tell. But ten years is a long time without some degree of revamping, especially if we consider history. From the completion of the 1E core line in 1979, we have seen new editions or revisions like so (new editions in bold, revisions in plain):
Meaning, the previous longest gap was ten years between 1E and 2E, which is the same length of time between the publication of 5E and 2024.
So while WotC has sometimes spoken of 5E maintaining some degree of "evergreen" status, it does seem highly likely that we will--at the least--see some kind of revamping of the core rules; whether mostly cosmetic and minor tweaks ("5.2"), a significant revision ("5.5") or a new ruleset ("6E") remains to be seen (my guess would be somewhere in the 5.2 to 5.5 range).
Regardless, we could look at the next two years--2022-23--as the "completion" of 5E or, at least, Phase One of 5E. If we entertain this view, we can also look at what is missing in the first eight years, both in terms of popular classic themes and rules (e.g. planes, a full treatment of psionics, epic play, etc) and settings (most notably Planescape and Dark Sun, but also Dragonlance, Greyhawk, a full treatment of the Forgotten Realms, etc).
What do we know? Not much, except that at least two more classic settings and three new settings are in the works, although WotC has been clear to say that not all of these may come to publication.
Probable 2022-23 Books
So if we take those two years, we have at least 10 books, maybe as many as 12-13 if they decide to expand the quantity (meaning, 10 if the pattern of 5 per year holds, but up to 13 if they move to 6 in 2022 and 7 in 2023, which I think is unlikely but possible). If we also take the basic formula of 1 splat, 1-2 adventure books, and 1-2 settings per year, that gives us:
2022-23 Book Slots by Type (assuming 5-6 books per year, or 10-12 total)
Splats: 2
Settings: 3-4+ (likely 1-2 Magic, 2 classic, 1-3 new)
Adventures: 2-4 (likely 2-3 story arc, 1-2 compilation)
Additional/Unknown: 0-2 (most likely settings, but could be something else)
The Questions for You
So I have two questions for you:
The Chart: D&D Major Products/Books, 2014-21
Some of you might remember my chart that I've shared a few times over years, which I've updated to include 2021 books.
There still might be a surprise or two for 2021, but I think we're fairly certain that the book schedule is complete. Presumably we won't know anything about 2022's releases for at least several months - maybe not until early next year (depending upon when 2022's first book is released...March?).
5E's Patterns of Publication
In the chart above, we can see some clear patterns:
- Three books per year from 2015-17, four books per year from 2018-20, and five books in 2021. That would imply that we'll see five books in both 2022-23, if the pattern holds (which it may not, but almost certainly won't go down).
- There's been one "splat" per year from 2014-21, if we consider Acquisitions in that category. Even if not, that's six of seven years, so at the least we can say that AI filled the "splat slot" for that year.
- There's been 1-2 settings and 1-2 adventures from 2018-21, and 2 settings in each of the last two years (implying that's the pattern going forward).
- Three of the last four years have seen a Magic book published.
- Since 2017 there has been one compilation adventure book published in odd-number years (2017, '19, '21).
Approaching 2024: Completing a Cycle?
Much has been spoken about 2024 as the 50th anniversary of D&D and, to a lesser extent, the 10th anniversary of 5E. While nothing is guaranteed, most seem to agree that we'll see at least revised core rulebooks, if not a new edition. Only time will tell. But ten years is a long time without some degree of revamping, especially if we consider history. From the completion of the 1E core line in 1979, we have seen new editions or revisions like so (new editions in bold, revisions in plain):
OD&D 1974 | B/X/BECMI 1977, 1981, 1983, 1991 | AD&D 1979, 1989, 1995 | D&D 2000, 2003, 2008, 2014
Meaning, the previous longest gap was ten years between 1E and 2E, which is the same length of time between the publication of 5E and 2024.
So while WotC has sometimes spoken of 5E maintaining some degree of "evergreen" status, it does seem highly likely that we will--at the least--see some kind of revamping of the core rules; whether mostly cosmetic and minor tweaks ("5.2"), a significant revision ("5.5") or a new ruleset ("6E") remains to be seen (my guess would be somewhere in the 5.2 to 5.5 range).
Regardless, we could look at the next two years--2022-23--as the "completion" of 5E or, at least, Phase One of 5E. If we entertain this view, we can also look at what is missing in the first eight years, both in terms of popular classic themes and rules (e.g. planes, a full treatment of psionics, epic play, etc) and settings (most notably Planescape and Dark Sun, but also Dragonlance, Greyhawk, a full treatment of the Forgotten Realms, etc).
What do we know? Not much, except that at least two more classic settings and three new settings are in the works, although WotC has been clear to say that not all of these may come to publication.
Probable 2022-23 Books
So if we take those two years, we have at least 10 books, maybe as many as 12-13 if they decide to expand the quantity (meaning, 10 if the pattern of 5 per year holds, but up to 13 if they move to 6 in 2022 and 7 in 2023, which I think is unlikely but possible). If we also take the basic formula of 1 splat, 1-2 adventure books, and 1-2 settings per year, that gives us:
2022-23 Book Slots by Type (assuming 5-6 books per year, or 10-12 total)
Splats: 2
Settings: 3-4+ (likely 1-2 Magic, 2 classic, 1-3 new)
Adventures: 2-4 (likely 2-3 story arc, 1-2 compilation)
Additional/Unknown: 0-2 (most likely settings, but could be something else)
The Questions for You
So I have two questions for you:
- How would you fill out that 2022-23 release schedule, given the above parameters?
- How do you think WotC will actually fill it out?
Last edited:
