D&D 5E 5E Books Through 2021 and the Road Ahead (2022 and Beyond)

Parmandur

Book-Friend
Question: do you think the adventures and compilations will continue as is--kind of general and/or set in the Realms--or do you think they'll be centered on, say, Planescape or Dark Sun?
Well, I think things might get a little weird: Winninger went out of his way to say that the upcoming Settings would innovate new formats, and I think I see what he means with Strixhaven being an Adventure Path mixed with Setting book. Planescape could be a Manual of the Planes AND Setting book, Dark Sun can be a Survival/Low Tech supplement AND a Setting.

As to the Kamigawa situation, signs are that they are doing a Kamigawa Card set in the Spring (Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty), and I think we need to look at what worlds are gtting cards more than just the Rabiah numbers as such: the Rabiah numbers indicate how likely a return is, there being a return then makes a book more likely.
 

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Mercurius

Legend
Well, I think things might get a little weird: Winninger went out of his way to say that the upcoming Settings would innovate new formats, and I think I see what he means with Strixhaven being an Adventure Path mixed with Setting book. Planescape could be a Manual of the Planes AND Setting book, Dark Sun can be a Survival/Low Tech supplement AND a Setting.

As to the Kamigawa situation, signs are that they are doing a Kamigawa Card set in the Spring (Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty), and I think we need to look at what worlds are gtting cards more than just the Rabiah numbers as such: the Rabiah numbers indicate how likely a return is, there being a return then makes a book more likely.
Yeah, I think you are right about the "innovative new formats," meaning they aren't all that innovative or new, just more syncretic. So while any such categorizations are artificial, every book will still have a "primary aspect," be it setting, adventure, splat, etc.

On the other hand, "innovative new format" implies something different. Did he say it wouldn't be a mega-box set, which would be somewhat new to 5E? We've had the Starter Set, Essentials, and the Strahd thing, but we haven't a 2E-style campaign setting box set. So maybe he means that we'll see a big box set for a new setting that includes a gazetteer (setting), adventure book, DM book (monsters, treasure, campaign), and Player's book (sub-classes, races, other rules).

I didn't know that about Kamigawa. It does seem likely, given the current climate, that WotC branches off from "Europe default." I was expecting WotC to go to a one-Magic-setting-per-year format, but then we heard about the new settings, and it is hard imagining them publishing three settings per year (classic, Magic, new), although that would be grand.
 

Parmandur

Book-Friend
Yeah, I think you are right about the "innovative new formats," meaning they aren't all that innovative or new, just more syncretic. So while any such categorizations are artificial, every book will still have a "primary aspect," be it setting, adventure, splat, etc.

On the other hand, "innovative new format" implies something different. Did he say it wouldn't be a mega-box set, which would be somewhat new to 5E? We've had the Starter Set, Essentials, and the Strahd thing, but we haven't a 2E-style campaign setting box set. So maybe he means that we'll see a big box set for a new setting that includes a gazetteer (setting), adventure book, DM book (monsters, treasure, campaign), and Player's book (sub-classes, races, other rules).

I didn't know that about Kamigawa. It does seem likely, given the current climate, that WotC branches off from "Europe default." I was expecting WotC to go to a one-Magic-setting-per-year format, but then we heard about the new settings, and it is hard imagining them publishing three settings per year (classic, Magic, new), although that would be grand.
I mean, with 5 books a year, 3 Settings per year isn't too unreasonable if they are selling well, given the supplement toolbox form they've developed.

All Wiininger did was state that they were print projects, and each exploring new formats from each other: box sets are plausible. A Forgotten Realms box set that can fit in the Target/Walmart board game aisle...?
 

Mercurius

Legend
I mean, with 5 books a year, 3 Settings per year isn't too unreasonable if they are selling well, given the supplement toolbox form they've developed.

All Wiininger did was state that they were print projects, and each exploring new formats from each other: box sets are plausible. A Forgotten Realms box set that can fit in the Target/Walmart board game aisle...?
Yeah, it makes sense, both that it would be box sets and that we'd see FR. I mean, I think it more likely that we see a full(er) treatment of the Realms than we do, say, a Dragonlance or Greyhawk setting book. In other words, I think we could rank the classic settings in the following tiers, in terms of likelihood that we'll see them in the next two years:

Planescape, Dark Sun
Forgotten Realms
Dragonlance, Greyhawk, Spelljammer
Birthright, Mystara, Council of Wyrms
Everything else
 

Parmandur

Book-Friend
Yeah, it makes sense, both that it would be box sets and that we'd see FR. I mean, I think it more likely that we see a full(er) treatment of the Realms than we do, say, a Dragonlance or Greyhawk setting book. In other words, I think we could rank the classic settings in the following tiers, in terms of likelihood that we'll see them in the next two years:

Planescape, Dark Sun
Forgotten Realms
Dragonlance, Greyhawk, Spelljammer
Birthright, Mystara, Council of Wyrms
Everything else
Well, Council of Worms is apparently getting screentime in Fizban's, so that's interesting.

Planescape and Dark Sun are the remaining top tier Settings, but it will be interesting to see where they go.
 


All of this has been discussed many times before, but given that we now know the full publication schedule for 2021--at least for major products (books)--I thought it was a good time to update my chart and start a thread.

The Chart: D&D Major Products/Books, 2014-21
Some of you might remember my chart that I've shared a few times over years, which I've updated to include 2021 books.

View attachment 141525


There still might be a surprise or two for 2021, but I think we're fairly certain that the book schedule is complete. Presumably we won't know anything about 2022's releases for at least several months - maybe not until early next year (depending upon when 2022's first book is released...March?).

5E's Patterns of Publication
In the chart above, we can see some clear patterns:
  • Three books per year from 2015-17, four books per year from 2018-20, and five books in 2021. That would imply that we'll see five books in both 2022-23, if the pattern holds (which it may not, but almost certainly won't go down).
  • There's been one "splat" per year from 2014-21, if we consider Acquisitions in that category. Even if not, that's six of seven years, so at the least we can say that AI filled the "splat slot" for that year.
  • There's been 1-2 settings and 1-2 adventures from 2018-21, and 2 settings in each of the last two years (implying that's the pattern going forward).
  • Three of the last four years have seen a Magic book published.
  • Since 2017 there has been one compilation adventure book published in odd-number years (2017, '19, '21).

Approaching 2024: Completing a Cycle?
Much has been spoken about 2024 as the 50th anniversary of D&D and, to a lesser extent, the 10th anniversary of 5E. While nothing is guaranteed, most seem to agree that we'll see at least revised core rulebooks, if not a new edition. Only time will tell. But ten years is a long time without some degree of revamping, especially if we consider history. From the completion of the 1E core line in 1979, we have seen new editions or revisions like so (new editions in bold, revisions in plain):

OD&D 1974 | B/X/BECMI 1977, 1981, 1983, 1991 | AD&D 1979, 1989, 1995 | D&D 2000, 2003, 2008, 2014

Meaning, the previous longest gap was ten years between 1E and 2E, which is the same length of time between the publication of 5E and 2024.

So while WotC has sometimes spoken of 5E maintaining some degree of "evergreen" status, it does seem highly likely that we will--at the least--see some kind of revamping of the core rules; whether mostly cosmetic and minor tweaks ("5.2"), a significant revision ("5.5") or a new ruleset ("6E") remains to be seen (my guess would be somewhere in the 5.2 to 5.5 range).

Regardless, we could look at the next two years--2022-23--as the "completion" of 5E or, at least, Phase One of 5E. If we entertain this view, we can also look at what is missing in the first eight years, both in terms of popular classic themes and rules (e.g. planes, a full treatment of psionics, epic play, etc) and settings (most notably Planescape and Dark Sun, but also Dragonlance, Greyhawk, a full treatment of the Forgotten Realms, etc).

What do we know? Not much, except that at least two more classic settings and three new settings are in the works, although WotC has been clear to say that not all of these may come to publication.

Probable 2022-23 Books
So if we take those two years, we have at least 10 books, maybe as many as 12-13 if they decide to expand the quantity (meaning, 10 if the pattern of 5 per year holds, but up to 13 if they move to 6 in 2022 and 7 in 2023, which I think is unlikely but possible). If we also take the basic formula of 1 splat, 1-2 adventure books, and 1-2 settings per year, that gives us:

2022-23 Book Slots by Type (assuming 5-6 books per year, or 10-12 total)
Splats: 2
Settings: 3-4+ (likely 1-2 Magic, 2 classic, 1-3 new)
Adventures: 2-4 (likely 2-3 story arc, 1-2 compilation)
Additional/Unknown: 0-2 (most likely settings, but could be something else)

The Questions for You
So I have two questions for you:
  1. How would you fill out that 2022-23 release schedule, given the above parameters?
  2. How do you think WotC will actually fill it out?

Phase 1 was over when Tasha's came out. Phase 2 might end some time in 2024.

Here is what we actually know about what is coming in 2022 & 2023.

2 classic settings are certain, we know we are getting 2 classic in 2022, likely early on. They are also working on 3 other setting books, 1 a revisit (FR), and 2 new settings, but these 3 could still be cancelled if things go poorly, but so gar things are going great.

Its also safe to assume that there will be at least 1 "Summer" adventure per year.

That doesn't leave alot of room for other types of books until later in 2023 if things continue to go great for those setting books.

My prediction beyond the obvious classic settings is no "splat" books, beyond the splat elements of settings. Next year will be very Setting heavy. I predict 3-5 setting books & 1 big adventure in 2022 and 2-4 setting books & 1 big adeventure in 2023.
 


I mean, with 5 books a year, 3 Settings per year isn't too unreasonable if they are selling well, given the supplement toolbox form they've developed.

All Wiininger did was state that they were print projects, and each exploring new formats from each other: box sets are plausible. A Forgotten Realms box set that can fit in the Target/Walmart board game aisle...?
One thing that boxed sets can do better than normal books is to include multiple poster maps and handouts. And both the FR and Planescape would benefit mightily from both. I would be delighted with either (and especially both lol)....

On the subject of splat books, there's still plenty of room for monster-type books, so I imagine we'll have more coming up, just not immediately since Fizban's is out soon. As for general rules splat books, those might be harder and harder to come up with useful rules ideas and subclasses. The big thing is if they finally get psionics finally fleshed out - and with a potential Dark Sun release looming, that would need to be done - they would need to print the rules in the Dark Sun book and then in a subsequent splat book like the artificer was with Eberron and Tasha's.
 
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I know FR is the current safe bet for the setting they'll revisit, but I've being thinking about Eberron. Keith Baker is quite active at DM's Guild, and perhaps they're revisit the setting to ramp up the sales. I mean, FR sells well through the annual adventure paths already.

It is a wild thought, because this whole "pre-5E is not canon" looks too much as a set-up for a new FR book (besides the implications already discussed about lore scattered around many books over the decades getting in the way of new designers/ideas).
 

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