Well that's pretty much what I said - that we'll see one Magic book in the next two years (the thread being about 2022-23, not just 2022). But I agree, '23 seems more likely than '22.
As for the bolded part, sounds like you have insider info, or are simply more confident than you should be

. I'm not saying you're wrong, but I'm not sure where your certainty comes from.
Yes, but I'm not talking about 6E, or 6E only. As I said, I think that is less likely than something between 5.2 and 5.5. What you describe sounds like 5.2, which is just the natural expansion of an edition over the years. Or to put it another way, what I mean by the varying degrees of edition change are:
5.1 Cosmetic (new art and/or layout), errata - same text, except for the occasional possible rules clarification, but no rules alterations.
5.2 - 5.4 Varying degrees of additions and revisions, some new bells and whistles (e.g. new ranger), but fully backwards compatible.
5.5 Significant revision. Previous books require either a "conversion primer" or a revision.
6E Significantly different to justify a "new edition."
In that regard, it could be said that 2E was actually closer to a "1.5" in that it was basically the same game, just with a few additions and a lot of re-organization and consolidation. But it was fundamentally the same game: AD&D. 3E, 4E, and 5E were all "true" new editions, and I would be very, very surprised if WotC came out with a true 6E on that level in 2024. But I also think it likely that we see something more than simply 5.1, if only because of Tasha's and the need for revisions of a few classes. I think somewhere in the 5.2 to 5.4 is most likely, but wouldn't be surprised if we see a 5.5.
Or, in order of likelihood (imo):
Most likely: 5.2 to 5.4
Possible: 5.5
Less likely: 5.1 or nothing
Very unlikely: 6E