D&D (2024) 6E When?

[FrogReaver]

You reach an equilibrium state by having the number of new players equalling the number of quitting players. (c.f. Games Workshop business model basically for boys age ~13 to ~16). The final steady state might not be what it is now but could be substantial.

That's a possibility.

Average lifespan of an edition is 9.75 years. If you discount 4e as a bad run (only 6 years, many issues from day 1, though it was popular with many), then the average lifespan is 10.333 years.
(I'm counting AD&D, AD&D 2nd, 3.0, 4E, 5E)

Therefore, I'm putting my money on the 2024 50th anniversary for the next real New Edition.

You don’t think 5e is an above average edition?

 

[Parmandur]

You don’t think 5e is an above average edition?

Heh, beyond that question, I don't think a 45 year old industry has enough data to make valid inferences about that sort of thing.

 

[darjr]

Wait, how many years is 5e’s run now? Does it start with the PHB?

 

[darjr]

This.

Edition is both irrelevant and the lingua fraca (sp? Yea I’m low brow) And is yet another reason I think 5e, now known as just D&D, will be around for a while.

 

[Parmandur]

Wait, how many years is 5e’s run now? Does it start with the PHB?

With the Starter Set: played 5E for the first time in 4th of July, 2014.

 

[Zardnaar]

It's 5 years old.

Just remember 1983 adjusted for inflation D&D was bigger than the the entire RPG market of 2018 and went out of print 7 years later.

People get bored, move on, bubble pops, recession, new CEO etc.

 

[NineLizards]

Amusingly, there's already a 5e product called "Essentials."

No worries. Just like 5e fighters actually cast spells to no controversey whatsoever.

Heck, 5e, like 3.5 did, could probably get away with a PH2.

Yep, the (re)use of the word 'Essentials' did surprise me...

And yeah, just turned my 5e Dwarf fighter into a F3C1 High Dex Low Strength Trickster Cleric Eldritch Knight Ninja dagger thrower. That casts wizardly and clerical spells... Duh...

 

[Tallifer]

WotC has yet to publish, for example, a Players' Handbook with psionic rules and classes, so there is a lot of room left for 5E to grow.

 

[Hussar]

It's 5 years old.

Just remember 1983 adjusted for inflation D&D was bigger than the the entire RPG market of 2018 and went out of print 7 years later.

People get bored, move on, bubble pops, recession, new CEO etc.

I'm not sure we can definitively state that to be honest. The voodoo accounting of TSR in the early 80's makes any statement of market size guesswork at best. And, frankly, the boom/bust cycle of a fad is probably the worst business model we could work with.

However, that all being said, why are we assuming that 5e has plateaued this year? It's still in the top 100 of all Amazon books, every release is doing fantastically well and there is zero evidence that the market isn't growing.

My prediction is that we won't even begin to see development on 6e until the PHB hits 1000 on Amazon.

 

[Zardnaar]

I'm not sure we can definitively state that to be honest. The voodoo accounting of TSR in the early 80's makes any statement of market size guesswork at best. And, frankly, the boom/bust cycle of a fad is probably the worst business model we could work with.

However, that all being said, why are we assuming that 5e has plateaued this year? It's still in the top 100 of all Amazon books, every release is doing fantastically well and there is zero evidence that the market isn't growing.

My prediction is that we won't even begin to see development on 6e until the PHB hits 1000 on Amazon.

I don't think its plateaued.

WoTC has used the 27 million figure themselves in the Golden Age they had two D&D's going gangbusters, red box and 1E.