delericho
Legend
True, true. I'm wondering, though, just how much 5E would splinter 4E. Maybe I'm wrong but I could see 4E becoming a bit of a "lost edition" like 2E; people either tried and moved back to earlier editions or they are willing to move on to the Next Thing. How many people play 2E today? My guess is less than any other major edition. If you want "old school" AD&D play you go for 1E and maybe supplement with 2E materials. If you want "new school" game design you go for 3.x or 4E. If you want a simple version of D&D you go for OD&D or BECMI.
I have a feeling 4E will be similar. The 3.x folks will stay with 3.x or Pathfinder, while the bulk of 4E players will go with the New & Shiny that 5E offers.
I have no comment on your "lost edition" notion - I just don't know.
I do think the majority of 4e players would move on to 5e... in 4-5 years. But I suspect that if it was done now, it would lose a lot of people. (Some would consider it too soon on principle, some would consider it a naked money-grab, some would decide they'd rather just wait a couple more years for 6e. Of course, you also lose some with any edition upgrade. And, of course, there would always be some who prefer 4e to whatever new edition came out.)
Maybe. My guess is that there are diehard Pathfinder folks that won't switch to 5E just about no matter what, and then there are a bunch of moderates who might give 5E a chance if it looked good no matter when it came out.
Again, the vast majority of PF customers have just gone through an edition upgrade. They're probably fairly happy where they are. I suspect many of them (including the moderates) would simply declare any edition update (D&D or PF) as "too soon", and ignore it.
(That said, they'd probably be more likely to look at a PF update than a D&D one if it were done right now, because Paizo currently have a better relationship with their fans. Of course, a large part of that better relationship is built on a (perceived) understanding that the company won't do that sort of thing!)
On the other hand, your post gave me an idea: What if WotC and Paizo time it right so that the 2E of Pathfinder and the 5E of D&D are...the same thing. This is the scenario where Hasbro is sick of D&D and sells it off to...Paizo, who brings the two games back together.
I simply cannot imagine Hasbro ever selling off the D&D IP. They might license out the rights to the RPG. But I also cannot imagine Paizo picking up the license - having gone through the pain of losing the license once before, I cannot see them going down that path again. Better to stand alone and have control, rather than be dependent on a license that could easily go away.
For better or worse, I think D&D and Pathfinder are now separate entities, and ever more shall be.
I completely agree that WotC should focus on what makes D&D unique, but tools like Character Builder and Monster Builder actually can accent traditional tabletop play in the same way that, say, a laptop makes a writer's life so much easier than a typewriter does...
The VTT and similar concepts are one step too far away from "what makes D&D unique."
I think we're in accord on both these points. However, I think the next step in emphasising the DDI is an increased focus on the VTT and the like.