D&D 5E Are D&D sales declining? Teos Abadia takes a look.

[Alphastream]

Define declining. Looking at the final charts in the story, yes there are year over year decline for 2021 vs 2022. But if you look at the trend since 2015 (i.e. ignoring the pandemic) their is still an upward trend, so no decline. i.e. 2022 data is better than 2018.

So, did sales peak during the pandemic and D&D will never recover? Or did D&D peak during the pandemic and is now returning to the previous slow growth?

Decline here is for new products. For much of 5E's life, each new product did better than the previous one. That is essentially unheard of in our hobby. Crawford and other staff have cited this, as they should, because it is tremendous.

What the data shows is that this is changing. Releases are starting to do fewer sales than the previous ones. Overall, 5E is still in an incredible place because those are still great numbers. But the decline is a solid indicator that achieving $1B for D&D won't come from book sales. While most rational folks knew that already, this really makes it clear. And it may be why Hasbro is now discussing the VTT and DDB and Baldur's Gate 3 as the future.

Interestingly, the growth and decline in BookScan doesn't match up in obvious ways with the pandemic. This supports folks saying that other factors (Stranger Things, reaching new audiences, etc.) are more important.

 

[Parmandur]

I did not know they had a big school program but some quick reading suggests it is pretty extensive. That's pretty awesome. I did not dig deep enough to know whether they are making a special effort to reach less advantages schools (rural areas, inner cities, reservations) but I hope so.

Yeah, I'm notnpersonally familiar, but from what I've heard from educators around here it is pretty awesome what they are offering (@Clint_L could say more).

 

[Parmandur]

Decline here is for new products. For much of 5E's life, each new product did better than the previous one. That is essentially unheard of in our hobby. Crawford and other staff have cited this, as they should, because it is tremendous.

What the data shows is that this is changing. Releases are starting to do fewer sales than the previous ones. Overall, 5E is still in an incredible place because those are still great numbers. But the decline is a solid indicator that achieving $1B for D&D won't come from book sales. While most rational folks knew that already, this really makes it clear. And it may be why Hasbro is now discussing the VTT and DDB and Baldur's Gate 3 as the future.

Interestingly, the growth and decline in BookScan doesn't match up in obvious ways with the pandemic. This supports folks saying that other factors (Stranger Things, reaching new audiences, etc.) are more important.

Another correlarynis that even if sales are cooling somewhat, they are still good enough that I believe WotC when they say they plan to stay in the print book business even if the Brand needs other bigger revenue streams.

 

[Parmandur]

I didn’t realize that about the add buy. I wonder if it was worth it?

A superb owl bear

Even though the movie was a bit of a damp squib in the box office department (real shame, they should have released it after BG3 in retrospect), it sure seems to have been an excellent ad for the existence of the game.

 

[FitzTheRuke]

From my perspective: Everyone here is correct. It's a little bit of all of it.

Sales are down a little (but not a lot, it's still going very strong) because (in no particular order):

• The pandemic had a "boredom bump" that is over.
• More and more people are moving to digital (DDB) just like WotC wants.
• There's a new "edition" on the way, which makes people wary of current books.

All of these things are true, and noticeable to those of us "in the trenches".

But the game is still going strong, far stronger than any edition before it, in particular when you take all other factors into account!

 

[darjr]

Even though the movie was a bit of a damp squib in the box office department (real shame, they should have released it after BG3 in retrospect), it sure seems to have been an excellent ad for the existence of the game.

I think it primed things for BG3 too. At least anecdotally I know folks who saw the movie in one way or another and don’t play table top but are now invested. Strangely I’ve had BG3 players ask me about the movie so it might go the other way round too.

 

[darjr]

From my perspective: Everyone here is correct. It's a little bit of all of it.

Sales are down a little (but not a lot, it's still going very strong) because (in no particular order):

• The pandemic had a "boredom bump" that is over.
• More and more people are moving to digital (DDB) just like WotC wants.
• There's a new "edition" on the way, which makes people wary of current books.

All of these things are true, and noticeable to those of us "in the trenches".

But the game is still going strong, far stronger than any edition before it, in particular when you take all other factors into account!

For me this is a big takeaway too. If these recent numbers alone were attributed to any other edition it’d be considered a historical success.

 

[Reynard]

I think it primed things for BG3 too. At least anecdotally I know folks who saw the movie in one way or another and don’t play table top but are now invested. Strangely I’ve had BG3 players ask me about the movie so it might go the other way round too.

Did you point them toward Legend of Vox Machina instead, since it is definitely more in the same flavor?

 

[darjr]

Still. I think WotC needs to pay attention. I think they have and are.

 

[darjr]

Did you point them toward Legend of Vox Machina instead, since it is definitely more in the same flavor?

I didn’t! But now I will!