Scrivener of Doom
Adventurer
At this point, here is my (unscientific but informed) takeaway from this (unscientific) poll and the earlier polls.
4e sold to about 65% of the ENworld population. If I remember correctly, that coorelated, at first, into about 50% playing it. Enthusiasm for the edition waned over the period of about a year and a half until there were nearly equal amounts playing 4e and Pathfinder until finally Pathfinder cornered the market and gained ascendancy.
Enthusiasm for 5e seems far more muted than it did for 4e (about a 15% reduction) but the numbers are looking like about 60-65% plan on at least buying it, only marginally less than with 4e. However, the lack of enthusiasm means its going to have an even higher hurdle than 4e to cross if it seeks to be the reigning, long-term industry leader. I would not be surprised if it didn't lead in sales for a quarter or two, but unless it can garner more enthusiasm it will wane even quicker than 4e (that's my prediction, so take it for what its worth). I think WotC should look very hard at what it needs to do to make people want to play their game above and beyond shiny new rules. Adventure support, consistency in vision for that support and for what they want from their own game, and support for the broader gaming community (cough - OGL - cough) would all be steps in the right direction.
Those are some interesting observations.
[MENTION=1]Morrus[/MENTION]: Have you thought about putting together a well-designed poll you could repeat every three or so months after Next's release and track this sort of information? I know you're expanding your data gathering but this could provide an interesting angle along the lines of [MENTION=221]Wicht[/MENTION]'s analysis.