Divisional Round Picks
My picks last week may not have been dead-on in respect to the winners (I was 2-2) but there was much that happened as expected. Overall, I am losing more and more respect for the NFC as we move forward. It would be nice to see one of the NFC teams look good this weekend just so we have a competitive Super Bowl. With that, this week's prognostications.
Colts @ Ravens
Despite completing 30 of 38 passes, Manning had a terrible game against KC. 3 picks and they looked bad, especially when he is out of sync with Harrison. But, Herm's Chiefs found a way to play worse than Peyton. No play action, no passes to single covered receivers and no quick hook for Green, who has been terrible for the last 5 weeks. The bottom line is that Peyton and company played well enough to win a home game but another effort like that will end their season.
I will admit to not watching the Ravens much this year. What I do know is that they have a very talented group of linebackers and a loaded secondary. They have an experienced playoff coach and an aging Steve McNair who never fails to look terrible for 50 minutes and then turn it on in the last 10, even if one arm is hanging limp on his side. The Ravens are the obvious favorite to smashmouth Indy into little bits.
But I'm going with Manning. There is one left in the playoffs and everyone is already expecting him to stink it up this week. I see a big effort from him in this game and I Harrison bouncing back as well. Dallas Clark as the 3rd option is back which makes the passing game that much better. What I have seen of the Raven's offense doesn't impress me. They have gotten some wacky/lucky plays to go their way and don't have any bigtime playmakers to put points on the board. The bottom line is Peyton vs the Raven's D. If he has a big day, they will win. If not, they are going home. I'm going with the Colts on the road in a shocker.
Eagles @ Saints
I think this game is the easiest to pick of the lot. After seeing the Eagles try and give the game to the Giants in the first half, I think their tank is almost empty. They have a short week after playing Sunday and playing Saturday, Garcia coming back to earth (which he did) and a crazy Superdome which will end the Eagles' great playoff run.
I was at the game and the Eagles did enough to win. The Giants took no advantage of excellent field position in the first quarter. Manning played two games: one where he was very good for 5 minutes at the start and 15 at the end. I don't know what happened in the other 40 minutes but I did see that Eli Manning missed wide open receivers - and by missed I mean didn't even look their way. I was not impressed at all by the Eagles performance. But good teams find a way to win and they did.
This will be a game where the first 20-30 minutes should be competitive. If the Eagles play defense the way they did against the G-men, Brees will destroy them. He won't miss open guys like Manning did. I see this one being over before the 4th quarter even though the Eagles won't look bad, just tired. Kudos to them, for what was a great season considering they lost their star QB.
That said, I reserve the right to eat these words next week. The NFC sucks.
Seahawks @ Bears
The Seahawks played a decent home game last week. The problem was that they played well enough to lose, it's just that they didn't. The Romo Game will go down as one of the all-time chokes by a QB. I'll stand by my statement that the 'Hawks are soft. They are a shell of a team compared to last year and just like the Giants, made the playoffs because the NFC and especially their division, is terrible.
The Bears are an odd team. It looks like they have been coasting for the last month. What I do know is that they have a great defense that can score and is the reason for their record. They are banged up (who isn't?) but now rested. Sure, some guys won't be there but that is should be fine. Smith won't wait to yank Grossman if he is playing like he has in some of the games (0.0 QB Rating?!). The Bears shouldn't need their QB to play a great game to win this one. Pound the Seahawks on the ground, stop Alexander and wait for the Saints/Eagles winner to come to town.
Patriots @ Chargers
The game of the weekend! As interesting as all the games are, this one is the best. It has the best coach storyline and the biggest questions. Can Rivers get it done when the Pats take away LDT? Will Marty tighten up again and choke away home field? Is LDT good enough to break the Pats excellent front 7? Can the Brady/Belichick combo take out a loaded team? Great stuff.
I'm going against my gut here. My guts say the Pats find a way. But this year too wacky to follow conventions, not to mention the sports world. Cowher finally won a Super Bow last year after a history of failure, the Saints won their division, the Jets got 10 wins, Parcells can't control his team, the Detroit Tigers made the World Series, the White Sox and Red Sox won the World Series and these aren't the only examples. I went with Manning above and I'm going with Marty here. He give the play calling to his coordinators, sits back and sends the Pats home.
The only way I see the Pats winning this one is if they play a perfect game (which is possible). That means no turnovers, a big special teams play or two and probably a defensive score. I wouldn't be surprised if the Pats pull this off, especially with a first year starting QB. And Rivers/Martyball is the only reason why I'd give the Pats a shot in this one. Maybe this will even be the game where we see the Pats pay for letting Vinatieri go?
Let's see the Bolts host the Colts next week. Then we can talk about who ends their playoff futility streak in the head to head - Manning or Marty? Just feels like that kinda year/decade...
