D&D General As of 1998, 4,007,685 people played AD&D in the US, as estimated by Ben Riggs.

[Zardnaar]

This is where we get the Fermi Paradox from. Even given extremely conservative estimates it seems absurdly unlikely for the number of planets that host intelligent life in the universe to be 1. But also given similar estimations it seems absurdly unlikely that we wouldn’t be able to see any evidence of other intelligent life if it existed. So, clearly our estimates are flawed in some way or another, and we must ask ourselves wherein the flaw(s) lie. Is intelligent life far rarer than we would assume? That’s possible, but it would make use an extreme outlier, which is yet another sign that there may be a flaw in your methodology. Is intelligent life inherently unsustainable? That’s also possible, but a rather depressing thought. Similarly, it could be that interstellar travel is actually just impossible, but we’d like to hope that’s not the answer. Are all the aliens hiding from us for some reason? Maybe, but, like, why?

Another interesting piece of the puzzle is that statistical modeling can be used to demonstrate, pretty much inarguably, that we are more than 90% likely to be among the first 10% of intelligent species to arise in the universe. This, again, marks us as an exceptional case, which is always cause for skepticism about one’s assumptions. One interesting proposal that resolves this problem, while being much more hopeful than the possibility that all life goes extinct before achieving interstellar travel, is that life forms which do achieve interstellar travel are likely to take control of large portions of the universe and prevent other spacefaring life from developing within that territory. In other words, if we assume most aliens would be colonialist, then it becomes more likely that, as intelligent life forms, we would be among the first to have developed, since later in the universe’s life, all the territory in which new intelligent life might develop will have already been colonized. And we would likewise expect not to see aliens, since if they were close enough to see, they would probably already have colonized our system and prevented us from developing within it.

…What were we talking about again?

My theory is in 13 billion years it's unlikely that two intelligent lifeforms would evolve close enough and have the same tech levels in the same timeframe to communicate with each other.

A species evolving at the same rate as us could have evolved 9 billion years ago.

The math suggests it's almost guaranteed life exists elsewhere, intelligent life probably but how intelligent or how far down the tech tree so to speak and how close they are....

 

[Charlaquin]

My theory is in 13 billion years it's unlikely that two intelligent lifeforms would evolve close enough and have the same tech levels in the same timeframe to communicate with each other.

A species evolving at the same rate as us could have evolved 9 billion years ago.

The math suggests it's almost guaranteed life exists elsewhere, intelligent life probably but how intelligent or how far down the tech tree so to speak and how close they are....

But the fact that we’re so early is just coincidence?

 

[Zardnaar]

But the fact that we’re so early is just coincidence?

13 billion years is early?

 

[Charlaquin]

13 billion years is early?

Incredibly so. It will be trillions of years before the last stars burn out, and far, far longer than that before the last black holes finish evaporating to Hawking radiation. Again, it can be proven, pretty much irrefutably with simple statistical models that we are over 90% likely to be among the first 10% of intelligent life forms in the universe. No complex physics even required.

 

[QuentinGeorge]

As a high school student in the 80s, I didn't have ready access to a photocopier. Mind you, I did manage to get my Dad to photocopy an entire 1st edition book at work (Players, I think). The books were pretty expensive in Australia at the time.

I’m in Australia too and we photocopied. My elder brother actually made hand copies of the tables. That’s effort.

 

[Zardnaar]

Incredibly so. It will be trillions of years before the last stars burn out, and far, far longer than that before the last black holes finish evaporating to Hawking radiation. Again, it can be proven, pretty much irrefutably with simple statistical models that we are over 90% likely to be among the first 10% of intelligent life forms in the universe. No complex physics even required.

I'm saying anything evolving at the same rate could theoretically have evolved 9 billion years ago. And gone extinct in a few million years.

 

[EzekielRaiden]

He isn’t claiming to posit an exact number though. He’s pretty explicitly making a guess that is almost certainly not correct, but is also very unlikely to be off by that much. Were there actually 4,007,685 people playing AD&D in 1988? Almost certainly not. But on the other hand, it’s similarly unlikely that there were fewer than 40,0768 people or more than 40,076,850 people playing. In fact, I would even dare to say we can safely assume an even tighter range than that! Perhaps between 2,000,000 and 8,000,000?

Well.... that's not entirely true. There is a claim being made here that depends on the value being pretty close to the listed value, and not merely within an order of magnitude of the actual value.

That claim is implied in the graph shown which compares the expected number of players in different eras. Because, as it stands, it is communicating the idea "there are ten times as many D&D players now as there were in 1998." That claim is...dubious. Given some of the assumptions that are questionable (such as only 4 players per DM and not 6 or more, and assuming a very high re-buy rate, among other things), it seems this is specifically aiming to he a low-ball estimate of yesteryear's player count and a rather inflated estimate of current player counts, leading to that dramatic comparison when the actual comparison is likely to be much closer together.

Given further things, we expect high retention and low attrition. That is, US population growth (e.g. we've gained about 60 million new bodies since the late 90s and about another 60 million between 1974 and 1998) means there are literally millions of young people who could join up. Further we expect a comparatively slow rate of losing old players by death: someone who was in their 20s in 1998 is in their 40s-50s in 2022, attrition by death is going to be fairly low. Further, major growth is likely with three new product lines (or four, it you count 3.5, or five, if you count PF1e, both of which I do). That means whatever numbers we claim for 1998 should mostly stick around and be part of the current numbers today. If the actual values are closer to 8 million and 20 million, that would be more than double, but far far less than over 10x as much.

That graph is really where the claim is being made that we should take this estimate as actually representative and not simply a plausible guess.

Incredibly so. It will be trillions of years before the last stars burn out, and far, far longer than that before the last black holes finish evaporating to Hawking radiation. Again, it can be proven, pretty much irrefutably with simple statistical models that we are over 90% likely to be among the first 10% of intelligent life forms in the universe. No complex physics even required.

I have seen these "irrefutable" claims. They suffer from the same faults that tell us that the "Doomsday Argument" does, which asserts that, by the Copernican Principle (that is, "you are probably not a special observer") and a few other things, humanity is essentially guaranteed to go extinct within the next ten thousand years, purely based on average human lifespans and the estimated number of humans that have ever existed. The "irrefutable" nature of these claims is not nearly as ironclad as you imply. Merely choosing the wrong kind of prior (one of the main objections to DA-type arguments) is enough to trash the entire approach.

There are also issues like addressing the "grabby alien" hypothesis which can explain the divergence between the Drake equation estimated value and the actual amount of intelligent life observed, among other concerns.

 

[Ulorian - Agent of Chaos]

I think he's trying to justify a wild guess...and not doing great.

Fermi Estimate | Brilliant Math & Science Wiki

A Fermi estimate is one done using back-of-the-envelope calculations and rough generalizations to estimate values which would require extensive analysis or experimentation to determine exactly. Physics is celebrated for its ability to make extremely accurate predictions about tough problems such...

brilliant.org

 

[Ulorian - Agent of Chaos]

It’s called a Fermi Estimation and it’s a surprisingly reliable way to get within an order of magnitude of the actual number.

That'll teach me to post before reading the whole thread...

 

[John Lloyd1]

Well.... that's not entirely true. There is a claim being made here that depends on the value being pretty close to the listed value, and not merely within an order of magnitude of the actual value.

I wasn't 100% clear on what your concerns were. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think you were concerned that the proportion of 1st and 2nd ed. players is underestimated compared the 50 million figure. Is that correct?

Comparing the 4 million with the 50 million figure is going to be problematic:

• the 4 million has a big margin for error because of the Fermi estimation
• we may have introduced unconscious bias that systematically skew the estimates (possibly based on our own play experiences)
• we don't know the methodology used to produce the 50 million. For all we know, there could have used Fermi estimation as well

I see your point about 4 million would still part of the 50 million and could be better represented in the graph.

BTW, I the original slide (I think) and it was in 2020:

more than 50 million players to date

I assume that is "TTRPG" players, but I can't be sure. Does it include CRPG players?