I'm responding to the bold, because that was not my argument. I said that once you are comparing passive perception vs. stealth for surprise, you are in combat already.
That is simply a lie, here is what you said,
in this post: "By the time the sentries/lookouts are using their passive perception to notice the threat, that threat is close enough for initiative to be rolled."
You can notice a threat farther away, but it's not going to be with passive perception vs. stealth.
Again, not only do you have no proof of this in the rules, but they actively contradict you. The travel rules are very clear, and so are the rules about stealth, but I'll quote the former since you seem to be fond of them: "Noticing Threats - Use the passive Wisdom (Perception) scores of the characters to determine whether anyone in the group notices a hidden threat."
It will be because either the other group isn't being stealthy and you see them far away, or because you actively looked farther to the forest line and saw them hiding there with an active perception roll.
Nope, this is not the way either the travel rules or the stealth rules work. Proof is given above for the travel rules, as for the stealth rules: "Passive Perception. When you hide, there’s a chance someone will notice you
even if they aren’t searching. To determine whether such a creature notices you, the DM compares your Dexterity (Stealth) check with that creature’s
passive Wisdom (Perception) score, which equals 10 + the creature’s Wisdom modifier, as well as any other bonuses or penalties."
So if the orcs have seen the party approaching on the road and are trying to hide, they will need to match their stealth roll against the party's PASSIVE perception, as indicated.
Note that this is where the travel rules kick in, so if the DM decides that only the characters in front have a chance to see the orcs, or if some characters are mapping, or foraging or whatever and therefore "don’t contribute their passive Wisdom (
Perception) scores to the group’s chance of noticing hidden threats", some characters will not be taken into account for the check above, and that's fair.