D&D 5E Brand Vs RPG

[Zardnaar]

30% growth is not hard to achieve with a small company - and it's very easy to report for a small, privately held one.

Pathfinder premiered in 2009. The core books are always the biggest seller with an RPG, but it failed to challenge D&D for the top spot at that time, even though D&D was just publishing supplements. PF had two winning quarters vs D&D, when WotC was trying out the new Essentials rules and format, which apparently, didn't work out that well. When they went back to the hardcover format, D&D went back on top until they stopped printing it.

It's back on top now, with only a few books a year against everything Paizo can put out.

No amount of speculation, out of date 3rd-hand statistics, or made up numbers is going to change that.

Its when you look at the numbers though. In 2009 Pathfdiner only game out late in the year and sold 4.4 million doallrs worth. Thats about half or 1/3rd of 5E launch in its 1st 6 months. By 2010 when runmors surfaced Pathfinder was outselling 4E they were getting 8 million IIRC.

5E launch grew the RPG market from 15 million through to 25 million which is roughly in line with Danceys estimates about how much D&D is worth as an RPG brand (5E+Pathfinder roughly what 3E was before the split). 5E/Pathfinder is worth 80-90% of the RPG market maybe more.

So one can take some good guesses abut how well 5E has done. At least 10 million in its 1st year vs 4.4 million in 6 months for Pathfinder) with an upper limit of probably 15 million since Pathfinder players are not leaving in droves it seems (some 5E sales would have come at the expense of Pathfinder probably).

And 5E is apparently doing quite well. One could also take some good guesses on how many core books they have sold on that 10 million odd dollars of revenue. 5E has sold well relative to 4E but it has not sold as much as say 3E did in its 1st year and it seems more likely it is in 2E levels of sales which got around 280k PHB sold in 1989. Its roughly in the middle of the pack in terms of D&D sales with the big numbers being BECMI, 1E and 3.0.

Paizo also had 30% annual growth rate 2009-2012. Once the core book bubble bursts it will be interesting to see how well 5E is selling in year 2 and 3 which is where Mearls said they will know better. Paizo is bloated but someone is buying their stuff it seems.

 

[darjr]

I want a popular brand that has products like a good movie and other things because a well liked brand will help the game.

It'll help reduce the fear some folks have to playing it. It'll let folks who other wise would not really know discover it.

 

[Doc_Klueless]

And 5E is apparently doing quite well. One could also take some good guesses on how many core books they have sold on that 10 million odd dollars of revenue. 5E has sold well relative to 4E but it has not sold as much as say 3E did in its 1st year and it seems more likely it is in 2E levels of sales which got around 280k PHB sold in 1989. Its roughly in the middle of the pack in terms of D&D sales with the big numbers being BECMI, 1E and 3.0.

Not trying to be a hardass, just interested in this kind of stuff. Where did you get these sales numbers, etc. from? It's my understanding from some quote I thought I saw that 5e is actually doing better than 3e and 4e. But as you can tell from that sentence, I might be remembering wrong.

 

[Parmandur]

Not trying to be a hardass, just interested in this kind of stuff. Where did you get these sales numbers, etc. from? It's my understanding from some quote I thought I saw that 5e is actually doing better than 3e and 4e. But as you can tell from that sentence, I might be remembering wrong.

No, that is accurate. 5E is doing bigger numbers than 3E.

 

[billd91]

No, that is accurate. 5E is doing bigger numbers than 3E.

So who's actually got a source on this?

 

[ko6ux]

I can't wait for the inevitable Dungeons and Dragons: The Movie spinoff licensed Role-Playing Game.

 

[Zardnaar]

Not trying to be a hardass, just interested in this kind of stuff. Where did you get these sales numbers, etc. from? It's my understanding from some quote I thought I saw that 5e is actually doing better than 3e and 4e. But as you can tell from that sentence, I might be remembering wrong.

There was an ICV@ IIRC estimate of the size of the RPG market 2015.2014. The Paizo numbers were in a RPG interview, Dancey gave the 3E figures in an RPG interview.

Profit margins might be higher on 5E books but in terms of units sold I think 3.0 and the older editions have it beaten. The numbers from Amazon were also acquired from some sort of program that tracked it - 5E PHB books sold 40k circa mid year on Amazon.

 

[Jester David]

Its when you look at the numbers though. In 2009 Pathfdiner only game out late in the year and sold 4.4 million doallrs worth. Thats about half or 1/3rd of 5E launch in its 1st 6 months. By 2010 when runmors surfaced Pathfinder was outselling 4E they were getting 8 million IIRC.

5E launch grew the RPG market from 15 million through to 25 million which is roughly in line with Danceys estimates about how much D&D is worth as an RPG brand (5E+Pathfinder roughly what 3E was before the split). 5E/Pathfinder is worth 80-90% of the RPG market maybe more.

So one can take some good guesses abut how well 5E has done. At least 10 million in its 1st year vs 4.4 million in 6 months for Pathfinder) with an upper limit of probably 15 million since Pathfinder players are not leaving in droves it seems (some 5E sales would have come at the expense of Pathfinder probably).

And 5E is apparently doing quite well. One could also take some good guesses on how many core books they have sold on that 10 million odd dollars of revenue. 5E has sold well relative to 4E but it has not sold as much as say 3E did in its 1st year and it seems more likely it is in 2E levels of sales which got around 280k PHB sold in 1989. Its roughly in the middle of the pack in terms of D&D sales with the big numbers being BECMI, 1E and 3.0.

Paizo also had 30% annual growth rate 2009-2012. Once the core book bubble bursts it will be interesting to see how well 5E is selling in year 2 and 3 which is where Mearls said they will know better. Paizo is bloated but someone is buying their stuff it seems.

Maybe...

According to Erik Mona back in the day the 3.0 books sold around 500,000 copies at $20 a pop. With 2/3rd sold in the first year, that's a total revenue of <8.5 million. According to an inflation calculator, that's around 11 million.
So 5e is selling *just* less than 3e. And assuming the only money D&D made was the difference and it didn't take money from Pathfinder of other games.

But 5e has some bridges to mend and also stiffer competition than either 2e or 3e for is audience. But it also seems to still be going strong and selling well.

Time will tell if the "fewer books, big events" release schedule works long term.

 

[Zardnaar]

Maybe...

According to Erik Mona back in the day the 3.0 books sold around 500,000 copies at $20 a pop. With 2/3rd sold in the first year, that's a total revenue of <8.5 million. According to an inflation calculator, that's around 11 million.
So 5e is selling *just* less than 3e. And assuming the only money D&D made was the difference and it didn't take money from Pathfinder of other games.

But 5e has some bridges to mend and also stiffer competition than either 2e or 3e for is audience. But it also seems to still be going strong and selling well.

Time will tell if the "fewer books, big events" release schedule works long term.

Thats what Ithink when they claim 5E is doing better than 3.0. Not in overal numbers sold (smaller playerbase) but in revenue they may be close. Note You guesstimate is only on PHB, 3.0 had a lot more than the PHB year 1 and WotC did not see all of that $20 per book (more likely $5 or less per book). Dancey gave the 25-30 million a year figure circa 2008 IIRC and wikipedia has D&D at a billion dollars over 40 years.

So yeah I think 3.0 outsold 5E by a large margin in volume. Profit margins on 5E books I suspect would be higher. So 3E was more popular revenue wise not sure about it except 3E was a smash hit 3 times over by RPG standards.

 

[Jester David]

Thats what Ithink when they claim 5E is doing better than 3.0. Not in overal numbers sold (smaller playerbase) but in revenue they may be close.

This is a large assumption. I think it's safe to assume they know how inflation works. They should look at both numbers. In fact, I believe when Mearls said 5e had a stronger launch than 3e he directly referred to copies. Or, at the least, was vague regarding copies vs dollars.

Note You guesstimate is only on PHB, 3.0 had a lot more than the PHB year 1

And while 3.0 had a lot more than the PHB, it wasn't a lot more. The three core books were spaced out as well and there were a handful of small adventures, a few tiny sourcebooks (under 100 pages and also black-and-white) and the psionic book. It was far from the book-a-month of 3.5e and 4e.

and WotC did not see all of that $20 per book (more likely $5 or less per book). Dancey gave the 25-30 million a year figure circa 2008 IIRC and wikipedia has D&D at a billion dollars over 40 years.

20% revenue seems average. 20% of $20 is $4 and 20% of $50 is $10. But this doesn't matter if we're talking about copies sold not dollars.

So yeah I think 3.0 outsold 5E by a large margin in volume. Profit margins on 5E books I suspect would be higher. So 3E was more popular revenue wise not sure about it except 3E was a smash hit 3 times over by RPG standards.

But you still haven't given any conclusive evidence. It's pretty much your belief, because for some reason you want 5e to be struggling...

But it really doesn't matter.
Regarless to comparisons to 3.0, 5e sold incredibly well. It was on the NY Times bestseller list for a long time. It's continually been top the Amazon gaming list, and spent time near the top of the generic book list and not just the gaming list. It's almost certainly sold more copies than the Pathfinder Rulebook and the 2nd Edition PHB. And potentially close to the 3.5e PHB. It's in the top 4 editions sold regardless of how it compares to 1e, 3e, or BECMI (which is the real bar to beat). It's a success.

3.0e sold incredibly well. It was a phenomenon. It came out and revolutionized the RPG scene. While TSR was struggling at the time, D&D was still king. It had RPG competitors - such as Vampire- but it had a firm lock on the hearts and minds of its fanbase: they hadn't lost and alienated a third of their audience. Board games where not nearly as popular as they are now and video games were just becoming a thing. D&D had a lot less to fight against on all fronts. And game stores were flush with Magic the Gathering cash (and also more common and stronger businesses in general pre-Amazon.com) and willing to buy lots of copies of everything, especially RPG books from the same company, giving D&D a lot of presence. The economy in general was going strong. It was a very, very different time.
Just getting close is a triumph.


(This is a triumph.)