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D&D 5E Brand Vs RPG

Zardnaar

Legend
This is a large assumption. I think it's safe to assume they know how inflation works. They should look at both numbers. In fact, I believe when Mearls said 5e had a stronger launch than 3e he directly referred to copies. Or, at the least, was vague regarding copies vs dollars.


And while 3.0 had a lot more than the PHB, it wasn't a lot more. The three core books were spaced out as well and there were a handful of small adventures, a few tiny sourcebooks (under 100 pages and also black-and-white) and the psionic book. It was far from the book-a-month of 3.5e and 4e.


20% revenue seems average. 20% of $20 is $4 and 20% of $50 is $10. But this doesn't matter if we're talking about copies sold not dollars.


But you still haven't given any conclusive evidence. It's pretty much your belief, because for some reason you want 5e to be struggling...

But it really doesn't matter.
Regarless to comparisons to 3.0, 5e sold incredibly well. It was on the NY Times bestseller list for a long time. It's continually been top the Amazon gaming list, and spent time near the top of the generic book list and not just the gaming list. It's almost certainly sold more copies than the Pathfinder Rulebook and the 2nd Edition PHB. And potentially close to the 3.5e PHB. It's in the top 4 editions sold regardless of how it compares to 1e, 3e, or BECMI (which is the real bar to beat). It's a success.

3.0e sold incredibly well. It was a phenomenon. It came out and revolutionized the RPG scene. While TSR was struggling at the time, D&D was still king. It had RPG competitors - such as Vampire- but it had a firm lock on the hearts and minds of its fanbase: they hadn't lost and alienated a third of their audience. Board games where not nearly as popular as they are now and video games were just becoming a thing. D&D had a lot less to fight against on all fronts. And game stores were flush with Magic the Gathering cash (and also more common and stronger businesses in general pre-Amazon.com) and willing to buy lots of copies of everything, especially RPG books from the same company, giving D&D a lot of presence. The economy in general was going strong. It was a very, very different time.
Just getting close is a triumph.


(This is a triumph.)

They also claimed 4E was doing very well and sold better than 3E on preorders (did not specify 3.0 or 3.5) turned into sold better than 3E on the forums.

Peopel also thought being number 1 on Amazon was hundreds of thousands sold and earlier in the year it was revealed that Amazon had sold about 40k copies (around April?). In hte same amount of time 3.0 also had the FRCS released.

I would not be surprised if 5E has made more money than 3E in a similar amount of time. I just do not think they have sold 300k PHB in the 1st month which was what 3.0 did. I do not know how many starter boxed sets got sold though but even then I suspect a lot of sales were to people who also bought the PHB as well. HotDQ probably sold a lot as well.

When I say I think 3.0 has sold better than 5E I mean PHB not overall sales of an edition or things like profit margins which no one really knows. I think only the 1E PHB over a decade or the BECMI basic red box set compares with or beats the 3.0 PHB in sales.

The 40k 5E PHB sold on Amazon was in April here on ENworld (they got that info via software used on Amazon) and apparently Amazon sells abot 30% of a books total release. That would have put the ales of a 5E PHB around 110k and that also compares alight with the ICV2 estimate of the RPG market which went from 15 million to 25 million the following year once again assuming the 5E launch was responsible for a 66% jump in the total RPG market (or the estimate was way way off).

Once again though throw in the HotDQ and Starter set and I would beleive claims that 5E is doing better than 30 in terms of revenue/profit in the 1st year. I just have my doubts about PHB vs PHB sold. I would argue that 3E had the bigger impact as well and 15 years on its still here via PF I doubt 5E will be here in 15 years time.

5E has been a big hit RPG sales wise maybe better than they expected. Its a launch year though and it doesn't seem to have done anything that 2E or 3E failed to do. Its also sold faster than OD&D and 1E in the same amount of time but even 4E can claim that due to modern D&D front loaded release format.
 

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darjr

I crit!
I don't think the 4e PHB was on the new york times bestseller list near as long. Anybody know for sure?

Anyway, the boom from 5e's launch was bigger in my book. Despite what I originally thought about the starter set it really hit a cord. So many people came out of the wood work to ask me if I'd run games for them because of that box. Even my Boss at work arranged a lunch game in one of the many conference rooms, a very nice one.
 

They also claimed 4E was doing very well and sold better than 3E on preorders (did not specify 3.0 or 3.5) turned into sold better than 3E on the forums.
Which isn't a surprise. 3e sold well and there was a lot of fans who bought the first 4e book not knowing what to expect.

Peopel also thought being number 1 on Amazon was hundreds of thousands sold and earlier in the year it was revealed that Amazon had sold about 40k copies (around April?). In hte same amount of time 3.0 also had the FRCS released.
Eight months. Amazon has been estimated to account for 30% of sales. So even 40k (which was the low estimate IIRC) would put sales at 120k. Close to a third of the total lifetime sales of 3.5e. And it continued to sell the following four months.
And that 40k was the minimum. It's very likely higher.

I would not be surprised if 5E has made more money than 3E in a similar amount of time. I just do not think they have sold 300k PHB in the 1st month which was what 3.0 did. I do not know how many starter boxed sets got sold though but even then I suspect a lot of sales were to people who also bought the PHB as well. HotDQ probably sold a lot as well.
The 300k number sounds in error. I can imagine that in the first year, but not first month. Unless sales were very different. That's not just a huge number for D&D, that's a huge number for any book.
Neilsen Book Data put sales of the PHB at 20k+ the first week, and I doubt WotC would have been happy at 1/10th the sales of 3.0.

The 40k 5E PHB sold on Amazon was in April here on ENworld (they got that info via software used on Amazon) and apparently Amazon sells abot 30% of a books total release. That would have put the ales of a 5E PHB around 110k and that also compares alight with the ICV2 estimate of the RPG market which went from 15 million to 25 million the following year once again assuming the 5E launch was responsible for a 66% jump in the total RPG market (or the estimate was way way off).
I remember that. The software was good but not 100% accurate and it even had a disclaimer on the site, since it started low and worked up. (Can you find that thread? It'd be worth double checking what that site says now.)

IIRC it worked by taking a known sale at the bottom. A book that has a sale. a=1. And then it looks for b which has to have more sales. b > a. So it makes b = 2. c > b so c = 3. And z > y so Z = 26. But at any point in that chain it could skip a number. At the upper end it could be off by thousands of units. It wasn't designed to work for bestsellers and had a huge margin of error.

Once again though throw in the HotDQ and Starter set and I would beleive claims that 5E is doing better than 30 in terms of revenue/profit in the 1st year. I just have my doubts about PHB vs PHB sold. I would argue that 3E had the bigger impact as well and 15 years on its still here via PF I doubt 5E will be here in 15 years time.
This depends on if there's a revision or a 6e. If there's a popular 6e then no, if there's a poor 6e than 5e will still be strong. I see 5e going the distance.

5E has been a big hit RPG sales wise maybe better than they expected. Its a launch year though and it doesn't seem to have done anything that 2E or 3E failed to do. Its also sold faster than OD&D and 1E in the same amount of time but even 4E can claim that due to modern D&D front loaded release format.
It's not the launch year any more. Even the DMG came out over a year ago. Meanwhile, Paizo is putting out brand new content. And that year old PHB is still crushing PF.
 

Mistwell

Crusty Old Meatwad (he/him)
This is the issue though 90% of the worlds population are just drones to the corporate overlords and buy it anyway lets look at some prime examples shall we. " DLC sucks its way over priced, but im still going to buy that CoD map pack or the next destiny expansion even though its only worth half of what they are charging ill still buy it" Same way people complain that the bins don't get emptied properly or that street lights don't work yet still pay council tax.

Buying something you don't like is not the same as being a slave to corporate overlords. Your elitism shouldn't be confused with wisdom.
 

MoutonRustique

Explorer
While I understand the reasons for the push on the D&D brand, I've found it's consequences to be on the "bad" side from me, personally.

Here's where I'm coming from:

For me, D&D was always the role-playing system. And since I came in during 2e (early 90's), with the emphasis on settings, I always saw D&D as a sort of general, pretty vague and overall transparent "wrapper". D&D wasn't something to me, PlaneScape was, FR was, Dragonlance was, etc. D&D was just the "name of the company producing my games" in a sense.

When 3e came around, I found the system to be so cool! : incredible options, monsters with reasonable hps (I actually called up a friend just to tell him gold dragons had over 300 hp... wow, that does not paint me in any kind of positive light...) The rules were pretty much all over the place and there was a thriving market/community of people doing all kinds of things to change it, fix it, etc, etc (the Arcana Unearthed/Evolved version of 3e is by far my favorite, btb) But, still, D&D wasn't really its own thing - kind of like "play outside". You go and play outside, but it's not a specific enough activity by itself. You play soccer, hockey, kick the rock, hide and seek, bum rush, international, run around, etc.

When 4e came around, I was ecstatic : the rules were presented in a clear manner, there was no "voluntary obfuscation" - I found that SO AWESOME. In a sense, for me, D&D had become "the perfect D&D" :
- the rules finally encouraged the kind of play the texts, novels and sidebars had suggested you do (and all the previous fixes/versions/hacking had attempted to do)
- my DM prep time was reduced to... well, actually, my DM prep time didn't really change all that much - at the time, I had such high system mastery (and was sane enough to drop the whole "proper build" thing) that everything I created could usually be fit on 2 or 3 lines written in crayon on a small napkin : +hit, AC/Flatfooted AC, hp, important spells known, saves. Everything else I made up on the fly. BUT it was very cool to see that I could run this new edition with about 30 seconds notice (while my system mastery was barely level 1).
- DM tools (mostly creatures, traps, skill check and the like) were sane and coherent : no more "bonus feat" galore required for a cat to climb a stupid tree... If the cat should be able to climb the tree, it just bloody could climb the tree - and the mechanics didn't have to be "lied to".
- and other very excellent things - those who know, know, those who don't : there are better places to learn about this.

... but the main thing was that D&D still wasn't its own thing yet to my mind - sure there were similarities (mostly of the "annoying to me" kind) between the editions, but each was just a different set of rules to play the same kind of games.

When 5e came around, I was... not thrilled : there was so much system that was still un-explored with 4e. I compared that to 3e which had been turned on its head so many times, it could literally (ok, not really, literally, but it's an abuse of language I'm willing to make here for effect) look at the back of it's own head! 2e was always a mish-mash of a bunch of subsystems, so I never thought about system exploration - if you wanted something "new" you just made up your own subsystem and, when problems arose, you just used a 15 pound hammer to round the edges "a bit".

To be honest, I still don't like 5e. I don't very much like the rules - the core resolution principles are generally to my tastes (depending upon which principles you include in the core) but much of the classes, spell system and monsters... not so much. So far, my play experiences as a player have been, on the rules' side, very poor and I feel I've lost to much in terms of my DM tools to appreciate being a DM - but I have yet to give a real go of it...

But the thing that makes me dislike 5e (and is quite possibly tainting my perceptions of the rules) is the way that D&D has become its own thing. In essence, there's too much D&D in 5e for my tastes - a bit higher I complained a bit about the similarities between editions that annoyed me, yeah, well they're still here. But it's not that they're still here, it's that they are presented in a manner that seems to elevate them to "what D&D is really about".

So yeah, this is why the recent D&D brand push has been a poor thing in my experience : it's brought to the fore all the little D&Disms that I dislike and waved them in my face up and down.

By trying to define itself as something more concrete, it's sort of lost what I liked about it, and sort of up-played what I dislike about it.

All this being said, I do wish for the hobby to thrive and if it takes 5e to make it so, then count me on the supporting team - I'll just be on the water squad rather than the offensive line startup.
 

Shasarak

Banned
Banned
I would probably be more interested to see if WotC can ever do an edition that lasts longer then four years then how much each edition has sold.
 


Corpsetaker

First Post
I think we are also getting a lot of spin in order to push 5th edition.

I also want to say that trying to compare sales from 3rd vs. 5th is useless and should have never been done. Buying online was still very new back then and most sales of 3rd edition books came from actual brick and mortar shops, not to mention that you weren't buying those books at 20 to 30% off like you can from Amazon.

If you had both systems being sold using the same means then you would have a better understanding but that's information we can never know.
 

MoonSong

Rules-lawyering drama queen but not a munchkin
I'm with Mistwell. I want a water bottle with the D&D ampersand on it. I want a giant beholder pillow. I want blankets and sheets with D&D stuff on 'em. I want D&D-branded accessories for my game. I want D&D ALL OF THE THINGS.

:D
I want a beholder plush...
 

Zardnaar

Legend
Which isn't a surprise. 3e sold well and there was a lot of fans who bought the first 4e book not knowing what to expect.


Eight months. Amazon has been estimated to account for 30% of sales. So even 40k (which was the low estimate IIRC) would put sales at 120k. Close to a third of the total lifetime sales of 3.5e. And it continued to sell the following four months.
And that 40k was the minimum. It's very likely higher.


The 300k number sounds in error. I can imagine that in the first year, but not first month. Unless sales were very different. That's not just a huge number for D&D, that's a huge number for any book.
Neilsen Book Data put sales of the PHB at 20k+ the first week, and I doubt WotC would have been happy at 1/10th the sales of 3.0.


I remember that. The software was good but not 100% accurate and it even had a disclaimer on the site, since it started low and worked up. (Can you find that thread? It'd be worth double checking what that site says now.)

IIRC it worked by taking a known sale at the bottom. A book that has a sale. a=1. And then it looks for b which has to have more sales. b > a. So it makes b = 2. c > b so c = 3. And z > y so Z = 26. But at any point in that chain it could skip a number. At the upper end it could be off by thousands of units. It wasn't designed to work for bestsellers and had a huge margin of error.


This depends on if there's a revision or a 6e. If there's a popular 6e then no, if there's a poor 6e than 5e will still be strong. I see 5e going the distance.


It's not the launch year any more. Even the DMG came out over a year ago. Meanwhile, Paizo is putting out brand new content. And that year old PHB is still crushing PF.

It was Ryan Dancey who supplied the 300k in its 1st month and 500k in the 3.0 lifetime figure. Eric Mona in March last year IIRC supplied the following figures.

3.0 500k
3.5 250k-350k
Pathfinder 250k

10 Million dollars is the minimum I would say 5E has got based on the ICV2 figures and it actually checks out quite well with the estimates based on the Amazon sales figures. (100-200k PHB sales would account for 5-10 million of that figure). In the D&D context though that is selling faster than every other D&D book (in its 1st year) apart from 3.0, the Red Basic boxed set and maybe 2Es PHB 1st year (depending on 5E PHB final sales). When they say smash hit that is no exaggeration. Margins on the 3.0 PHB apparently were very thin since they sold in in 2000 at 1989's prices so yeah it is believable that claims of 5E doing better than 3.0 are true. IDK if they have claimed 5E has sold more than 3.0 or at least the PHB.

d20 was everywhere the size of the WoTC forums were a magnitude larger than the last few years (and probably ENworld as well), they had FR authors on the FR boards and you could type a response up and by the time you finished it could be on the following page.

3E is not my favourite D&D and it only beats OD&D and 4E in my list of preferred D&D. I am under no illusions as to how successful it was and it is called the silver age for a reason;). I still think of TSR era D&D was the zenith, genesis (as a popular brand) apogee, apex etc etc etc of the D&D line. I play 5E/Pathfinder/SWSE because that is what others like playing and I can get the players easier. 5E is the best D&D wotc has managed to produce IMHO although its not perfect of course (neither is AD&D/BECMI).
 
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