Zardnaar
Legend
This is a large assumption. I think it's safe to assume they know how inflation works. They should look at both numbers. In fact, I believe when Mearls said 5e had a stronger launch than 3e he directly referred to copies. Or, at the least, was vague regarding copies vs dollars.
And while 3.0 had a lot more than the PHB, it wasn't a lot more. The three core books were spaced out as well and there were a handful of small adventures, a few tiny sourcebooks (under 100 pages and also black-and-white) and the psionic book. It was far from the book-a-month of 3.5e and 4e.
20% revenue seems average. 20% of $20 is $4 and 20% of $50 is $10. But this doesn't matter if we're talking about copies sold not dollars.
But you still haven't given any conclusive evidence. It's pretty much your belief, because for some reason you want 5e to be struggling...
But it really doesn't matter.
Regarless to comparisons to 3.0, 5e sold incredibly well. It was on the NY Times bestseller list for a long time. It's continually been top the Amazon gaming list, and spent time near the top of the generic book list and not just the gaming list. It's almost certainly sold more copies than the Pathfinder Rulebook and the 2nd Edition PHB. And potentially close to the 3.5e PHB. It's in the top 4 editions sold regardless of how it compares to 1e, 3e, or BECMI (which is the real bar to beat). It's a success.
3.0e sold incredibly well. It was a phenomenon. It came out and revolutionized the RPG scene. While TSR was struggling at the time, D&D was still king. It had RPG competitors - such as Vampire- but it had a firm lock on the hearts and minds of its fanbase: they hadn't lost and alienated a third of their audience. Board games where not nearly as popular as they are now and video games were just becoming a thing. D&D had a lot less to fight against on all fronts. And game stores were flush with Magic the Gathering cash (and also more common and stronger businesses in general pre-Amazon.com) and willing to buy lots of copies of everything, especially RPG books from the same company, giving D&D a lot of presence. The economy in general was going strong. It was a very, very different time.
Just getting close is a triumph.
(This is a triumph.)
They also claimed 4E was doing very well and sold better than 3E on preorders (did not specify 3.0 or 3.5) turned into sold better than 3E on the forums.
Peopel also thought being number 1 on Amazon was hundreds of thousands sold and earlier in the year it was revealed that Amazon had sold about 40k copies (around April?). In hte same amount of time 3.0 also had the FRCS released.
I would not be surprised if 5E has made more money than 3E in a similar amount of time. I just do not think they have sold 300k PHB in the 1st month which was what 3.0 did. I do not know how many starter boxed sets got sold though but even then I suspect a lot of sales were to people who also bought the PHB as well. HotDQ probably sold a lot as well.
When I say I think 3.0 has sold better than 5E I mean PHB not overall sales of an edition or things like profit margins which no one really knows. I think only the 1E PHB over a decade or the BECMI basic red box set compares with or beats the 3.0 PHB in sales.
The 40k 5E PHB sold on Amazon was in April here on ENworld (they got that info via software used on Amazon) and apparently Amazon sells abot 30% of a books total release. That would have put the ales of a 5E PHB around 110k and that also compares alight with the ICV2 estimate of the RPG market which went from 15 million to 25 million the following year once again assuming the 5E launch was responsible for a 66% jump in the total RPG market (or the estimate was way way off).
Once again though throw in the HotDQ and Starter set and I would beleive claims that 5E is doing better than 30 in terms of revenue/profit in the 1st year. I just have my doubts about PHB vs PHB sold. I would argue that 3E had the bigger impact as well and 15 years on its still here via PF I doubt 5E will be here in 15 years time.
5E has been a big hit RPG sales wise maybe better than they expected. Its a launch year though and it doesn't seem to have done anything that 2E or 3E failed to do. Its also sold faster than OD&D and 1E in the same amount of time but even 4E can claim that due to modern D&D front loaded release format.