My house system has Tumble providing an AC bonus against attacks of opportunity made while moving -- tumblers are always subject to attacks of opportunity, but they're potentially (much) harder to hit. (This also keeps the Mobility feat useful.)
Basically, prior to taking a move action, you declare that you're tumbling during it and specify the path you're going to take. You then make a Tumble check at a base DC of 12, which increases by +10 if you're going more than half your speed and by another +10 if you plan to go through an occupied square. (It's also subject to the usual environmental modifiers for bad terrain.) If you fail the check, you don't go anywhere and lose the move action. If you succeed, you gain a +1 dodge bonus to your AC against any attacks of opportunity you provoke during your movement, with an additional +1 for every 2 points by which you beat the DC. (Thus, if my Tumble check is a 28 and I'm tumbling at half speed through clear terrain, I get a +9 dodge bonus against attacks of opportunity during my movie.)
If you're trying to tumble through an occupied square, you provoke a separate attack of opportunity from the occupant of that square just before you enter the square. If the attack hits and deals damage, your move ends immediately, in the square you were in just before you tried to move into the occupied one. Characters with reach weapons, who don't threaten adjacent squares, can still make the attack of opportunity with an unarmed strike if they choose. (Tiny characters, who just threaten the square they occupy, can make attacks of opportunity as normal.)
Basically, this approach seems to me like a happy medium between the PH system, which I think is too easy on tumblers, and the Monte Cook one, which seems excessively harsh. It also makes your actual AC continue to matter for your ability to avoid being damaged by attacks of opportunity, which seems plausible. Now, skilled tumblers who are already well-defended can greatly decrease the risk they face from attacks of opportunity, especially if they also have Mobility, but they can't eliminate it, especially from effective attackers.