Can computers predict which movies will flop?

[Hand of Evil]

LONDON - Hollywood producers fretting over this year's box office downturn should take heart.

A scientist in the United States says he has come up with a computer program that helps predict whether a film will be a hit or a miss at the box office long before it is even made.

"Our goal is to try to find oil, in a way," Professor Ramesh Sharda of the Oklahoma State University said Wednesday.

"We are trying to forecast the success of a movie based on things that are decided before a movie has been made," he told Reuters by telephone.

Sharda, an expert in information systems, has been working on the model for seven years and analyzed more than 800 films before publishing a paper that appears in the February 2006 issue of the journal Expert Systems With Applications.

Story at: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/10470445/

They are just taking all the fun out of the movies. :\

I can see it now:
Porn = $
Action = $
Tom = $$$
Sunglasses = $
Black (tight) Outfits = $
---------------------------
This movie should be made, it is called Dung Pile

 

[Desdichado]

No, but I can do a pretty good job predicting, based on my wide experience as a movie audience member. Seriously, I can--much better than the some of the overly genre-oriented guys here on the board that swing towards anything genre-ish. I'm also not very "Hollywood" which is where studios fail a lot, I think. They don't really know what mainstream America's tastes are anymore because they're so insulated in their West Coast values and tastes.

Studios should hire me as a consultant; I'll only charge them a few thousand bucks an hour for my time. And I'll save them millions of dollars; guaranteed.

 

[WayneLigon]

... Seriously, I can--much better than the some of the overly genre-oriented guys here on the board that swing towards anything genre-ish. I'm also not very "Hollywood" which is where studios fail a lot, I think. They don't really know what mainstream America's tastes are anymore because they're so insulated in their West Coast values and tastes.

So what's your track record been like with predicting hits or flops? And what is the 'Hollywood' mindset? I keep hearing this, but I don't see it. Other than a predeliction to beleive more in market research than artistic vision, leading them to prefer a 'happy' ending over one that might be stronger but not happy at all, I don't really see much difference.

 

[Desdichado]

So what's your track record been like with predicting hits or flops? And what is the 'Hollywood' mindset? I keep hearing this, but I don't see it. Other than a predeliction to beleive more in market research than artistic vision, leading them to prefer a 'happy' ending over one that might be stronger but not happy at all, I don't really see much difference.

Pretty good for 2005--I think The Island was the only one I was wrong on for movies that I saw and/or paid any attention to, anyway. I'm surprised that that didn't do better than it did, especially since buzz from folks who did see it was pretty positive.

My most recent prediction vis-a-vis Hollywood mindset vs. mainstream America: Brokeback Mountain is not a movie that mainstream America wants to see. Because of the critical buzz and controversial subject matter, it'll do a brisk business the first few weeks from either the sympathetic portion of the audience, or just people who want to see what all the hullaballoo is about, but after that, ticket sales will remain low but steady. Given that it's a relatively low budget "romance" movie, and not a blockbuster, it'll be modestly successful enough, though. But that's a great example of a "Hollywood" movie that reflects tastes and values of Hollywood itself, but not of mainstream America, in my opinion. It won't be a huge hit.

C'mon; you can't pay enough for wisdom like that...

 

[drothgery]

So what's your track record been like with predicting hits or flops? And what is the 'Hollywood' mindset? I keep hearing this, but I don't see it. Other than a predeliction to beleive more in market research than artistic vision, leading them to prefer a 'happy' ending over one that might be stronger but not happy at all, I don't really see much difference.

That's actually the reverse of the problem. If they paid attention to their market research, they'd know quite well that they're making lots of movies that won't sell tickets.

 

[WayneLigon]

That's actually the reverse of the problem. If they paid attention to their market research, they'd know quite well that they're making lots of movies that won't sell tickets.

I think the recent movie boxoffice slump has more to do with high ticket prices in many areas (which makes it difficult for families to get out to the movies) and easy DVD rental than anything else. And a lot of remakes and sequels.

What little I've read on the subject pretty much boils down to people saying 'we have no real idea why' but most of the people saying that are studio people What have you read that points to the market research?

 

[buzzard]

I'm gonna have to say the guy working on this is deluding himself. People are rather on the unpredictable side. If they weren't computer models for the stock market would be a far more valuable investment of his time.

buzzard

 

[Desdichado]

I think the recent movie boxoffice slump has more to do with high ticket prices in many areas (which makes it difficult for families to get out to the movies) and easy DVD rental than anything else. And a lot of remakes and sequels.

That's an overall industry problem, though--it has nothing to do with the success or failure of any given movie. Or very little, anyway.

What little I've read on the subject pretty much boils down to people saying 'we have no real idea why' but most of the people saying that are studio people What have you read that points to the market research?

That's exactly my point; studio execs seem to have no idea why movies are floppin' when to me it's obvious that the movie in question would flop. If they just hired me as a consultant, I'd keep them from making the more aggregious failures and save them tons of money, and plus I'd get paid tons of money as a consultant too. It's a win-win scenario!

 

[WayneLigon]

I'm gonna have to say the guy working on this is deluding himself. People are rather on the unpredictable side. If they weren't computer models for the stock market would be a far more valuable investment of his time.

I'd have to agree. You can predict some things will be a success, but every year we see surprises. Nobody expected My Big Fat Greek Wedding would be the success that it was. Someone obviously expected Stealth to be a major action blockbuster. I just don't think there is a 'winning solution' to any motion picture's success.

It would be interesting to see what the program's track record is over time.

 

[Dark Jezter]

I'm also not very "Hollywood" which is where studios fail a lot, I think. They don't really know what mainstream America's tastes are anymore because they're so insulated in their West Coast values and tastes.

I think that's an understatement. Some of the opinions and behavior I've witnessed from Hollywood types over the last few years makes me wonder if they're from the Bizzaro world from the old Superman comics.