Changeover poll

[Banshee16]

Yeah, I'm sure a poll on an internet forum featuring less than 70 votes is a real nail-biter for them.

Well, whether or not online polls have validity is debatable.....I've heard arguments both ways. At least this one has a more significant number of responses at this point....and the numbers are remaining fairly stable.....and they seem rather consistent with polls at other websites.....even reviews at Amazon, which seem mixed regarding the new edition.

My completely unscientific, anecdotal observation is that the owner of my FLGS has mentioned his client base has been split in half, with respect to who's buying into the new edition, and who isn't. That owner has several locations. I know the owner of another location, and both he, and customers he was talking to, seemed very down on the new edition.

Maybe other stores are different....again, it's anecdotal. It's interesting, though, that so many different sources seem to refer to the split. Maybe the numbers aren't quite correct, and maybe it won't be a longterm trend, but it might be relatively true, at least now.

Or maybe there's a minority of passionate fans who talk about the game online, and post on Amazon, or on Chapters or whatever, and they are split, and a much larger group of consumers who are buying the books, and might not reflect the same percentages. But then, I'd think that what I'd be hearing from my local shops would be all positive, and it's not.

I've made my feelings known in other forums here, so I'll admit that I'm likely biased. But the point of this post is simply to say that just because criticism or praise is on an online poll does not mean it's invalid, or even inaccurate.....by the same token, it can very easily be flawed.

I think we'll all have a more accurate sign in a year. If Pathfinder and True20 don't become true competitors or alternate options, then many people who didn't want to switch may eventually give in. That would likely be true as the supply of 3.0/3.5 products dries up. Or maybe future products will make the game more palatable to those who have held off so far. Or maybe Pathfinder will eventually become a valid Option#2. Or True20. Or some as yet unnamed 3rd party product. Or consumers might move onto alternate non D20, non-4E products by other companies. It's too early to tell. The game's been out, what, two months?

Banshee

 

[Merlin the Tuna]

Or maybe there's a minority of passionate fans who talk about the game online, and post on Amazon, or on Chapters or whatever, and they are split, and a much larger group of consumers who are buying the books, and might not reflect the same percentages. But then, I'd think that what I'd be hearing from my local shops would be all positive, and it's not.

My own theory (and by theory, I mean wild guess) is that there's an extremely large overlap between people who shop at gaming stores and people who vote in polls on sites like ENWorld. I imagine that Joe Sixpack goes to Borders, Barnes & Noble, etc. buys the books, and is on his merry way. He probably doesn't even know that his LGS exists.

In that respect I'd expect Amazon to be a bit more representative, but at the same time, there's the question of use versus contribution. I mean, consider how many people use Wikipedia versus how many actually write and edit articles. Same deal, I figure.

 

[Olaf the Stout]

I voted no change. I haven't played 4E yet but I probably will some time in the next 6-12 months.

I'm currently running my group through the Shackled City AP. We're 12 sessions in and at our current rate it will take over 60 sessions before we're finished. That means that our group will still be playing 3.5E for the next year or two.

I don't have the time to run one campaign and play in another so I imagine I will be playing 3.5E almost exclusively until the end of next year. We'll probably switch over to 4E at that point but that's a long way away so I'll wait and see what happens in the meantime.

Olaf the Stout

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

Or put another way, by the figures in the poll, 75.13% of people who try 4th edition continue to play it to some extent.

That isn't a bad retention rate, but it has some serious caveats.

 

[BryonD]

My own theory (and by theory, I mean wild guess) is that there's an extremely large overlap between people who shop at gaming stores and people who vote in polls on sites like ENWorld. I imagine that Joe Sixpack goes to Borders, Barnes & Noble, etc. buys the books, and is on his merry way. He probably doesn't even know that his LGS exists.

In that respect I'd expect Amazon to be a bit more representative, but at the same time, there's the question of use versus contribution. I mean, consider how many people use Wikipedia versus how many actually write and edit articles. Same deal, I figure.

I think there is some degree of accuracy there.

Of course, I also think that to the extent it is right, the people represented by ENWorld and the LGS are the ones that buy bookshelves full of supplements, unlike most Joe Sixpacks.

 

[Banshee16]

I think there is some degree of accuracy there.

Of course, I also think that to the extent it is right, the people represented by ENWorld and the LGS are the ones that buy bookshelves full of supplements, unlike most Joe Sixpacks.

Who is Joe Sixpack?

Banshee

 

[Edena_of_Neith]

Good heavens. Another 50 votes, in a single day. And really unexpected, actually.

The results shift slightly again:

Time: Late July, 2008
Votes: 550

Changeover: 40%
Partial Changeover: 14%
No Changover: 46%

 

[Merlin the Tuna]

Who is Joe Sixpack?

"Joe ___" is an American way of referring to an average person - an Average Joe, as it were. Joe Sixpack usually refers to a blue-collar worker I think, but I've gotten into the habit of using it as a catch-all. Joe Gamer, Joe Wizard, etc. probably would've been the better choice.

@Bryon: I think you're absolutely right in that it's the ENWorlders that are the guys that were grumpy about the 4e announcement because they had every hardcover produced for 3.X, but anecdotal experience for me has shown that most people who have (and possibly want) nothing to do with the online community pick up at least a couple of supplements. While they haven't spent the thousands on D&D that some of the folks around here have, a few hundred here and there certainly adds up.

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

@Bryon: I think you're absolutely right in that it's the ENWorlders that are the guys that were grumpy about the 4e announcement because they had every hardcover produced for 3.X, but anecdotal experience for me has shown that most people who have (and possibly want) nothing to do with the online community pick up at least a couple of supplements. While they haven't spent the thousands on D&D that some of the folks around here have, a few hundred here and there certainly adds up.

I know my name isn't BryonD...

but I'd have to disagree somewhat. Because of my disposable income, I'm usually kind of "the Librarian" for my game groups.

I had almost every 2Ed supplement out there, and greeted 3Ed with open arms. I'm quite satisfied with the game, too.

I had no problem with 4Ed's announcement- what I dislike is 4Ed itself.

In each case, my satisfaction had zero to do with what I had spent. It was all about the game itself and what I expected to spend on the game in the future.

And as for the second part of the equation, for the most part, the others in my last 3 groups bought almost nothing beyond the PHB or perhaps the Core, if anything at all.

 

[Edena_of_Neith]

(look of surprise)

So, this poll is hanging around. 562 votes. The results are holding steady at:

Changeover: 40%
Partial Changeover: 14%
No Changeover: 46%

I'm not really expecting that to change, at this point, unless several hundred people come crashing the poll. And that's not likely.