... or, an attempt to take a look at how I-A Football seems to be shaking out this year.
ACC
It's all about BC, Florida State, Miami, and Virginia Tech, with the Hokies leading and probably the only realistic national title contender now unless Texas stumbles or USC loses to someone other than an undefeated UCLA. Only one ACC team will be in the BCS unless something really strange happens; Miami, FSU, or BC could win the ACC, but not without knocking Virginia Tech down a few notches.
Big 12
If any other conference looked like the Big 12, Texas would be buying their tickets to Pasedena already. But this the Big 12, home of the most unpredictable conference title game in college football, where a regular season blowout victory doesn't prevent a title game loss. With the post-2003 BCS giving so much weight to the pollsters over the computers, Texas will tumble if they suffer a freak upset, but otherwise, they're heading to their second consecutive Rose Bowl (and since they're not a Big 10 or Pac 10 team, this is just wrong).
Big East
West Virginia was supposed to run away with the Big East last year, not this year. Apparently someone got confused. Probably Louisville when they played South Florida. Anyway, the Mountaineers are BCS-bound, and should put up a better showing than Pitt did last year. My Orange seem to have imported the entire offense from my old high school, not just one tailback; at least, they can't score and make lots of mistakes, which seems like F-M (though we could at least complete passes sometimes).
Big Ten
Northwestern is tied with Penn State, Wisconsin, and Ohio State at the top of the Big Ten right now. I love the Wildcats' offense (okay, I like any school with a great offense that has nothing to do with the quarterback running and at least makes a token effort at run/pass balance). It's hard to see any of them except maybe the Buckeyes winning out, but with four teams with one conference loss and another four with two, I've got to figure one of the teams with one Big Ten loss right now finishes out on top, and sheer stubborness leads me to say it'll be Ohio State. Two Big 10 teams in the BCS? There's a slim chance if Ohio State and Penn State win out.
Pac 10
LA thinks it's the center of the universe, and in college football, this is actually true, with USC and UCLA sitting undefeated. Oregon's only loss is to USC, and they don't play UCLA, so assuming they get a QB back after losing two last week, they should be tied with the USC-UCLA loser for second in the Pac 10. I'd bet on UCLA for the second BCS at-large spot, assuming they beat everyone else and don't lose too badly to USC; they have the best chance of finishing with one loss, a high ranking, and not winning their conference.
SEC
Alabama and Georgia are very good teams, but I've thought for weeks that the SEC champ will have two losses and injuries have only made that more likely. LSU and Auburn are still in the mix for the SEC West and for the SEC title, but there's a serious lack of offense in the SEC right now. If I'm wrong, though, and there are two SEC teams with one loss or less after the SEC title game, the non-champ will have a real shot at an at-large BCS spot.
Independents and non-BCS conferences
Notre Dame is guaranteed a BCS bid if they have 9 wins and are in the top 12. The computers don't like them right now, but if ND wins out (they'll be favored in every game, heavily against everyone but Tennessee), and a few teams above them lose something other than close game to each other (which seems a near certainty), they'll be there.
But as for BCS busters? I don't think so. No one will be undefeated, and that means they'd need to knock off a top-10 team to prove legitimacy to the pollsters. Fresno State has a slim chance, as they play USC and their only loss was to an Oregon team that should be rising in the polls. TCU (after Oklahoma's slide to irrelevance and overtime games against Baylor, and losing to SMU) and Toledo (lost to Fresno) won't get that shot. And that's it for one-loss teams in the non-BCS conferences.
So my expectation as things currently stand...
ACC Champ: Virginia Tech
Big 12 Champ: Texas
Big East Champ: West Virginia
Big Ten Champ: Ohio State
Pac 10 Champ: USC
SEC Champ: LSU
BCS title game: USC v. Texas
BCS at-large teams: Notre Dame, UCLA
ACC
It's all about BC, Florida State, Miami, and Virginia Tech, with the Hokies leading and probably the only realistic national title contender now unless Texas stumbles or USC loses to someone other than an undefeated UCLA. Only one ACC team will be in the BCS unless something really strange happens; Miami, FSU, or BC could win the ACC, but not without knocking Virginia Tech down a few notches.
Big 12
If any other conference looked like the Big 12, Texas would be buying their tickets to Pasedena already. But this the Big 12, home of the most unpredictable conference title game in college football, where a regular season blowout victory doesn't prevent a title game loss. With the post-2003 BCS giving so much weight to the pollsters over the computers, Texas will tumble if they suffer a freak upset, but otherwise, they're heading to their second consecutive Rose Bowl (and since they're not a Big 10 or Pac 10 team, this is just wrong).
Big East
West Virginia was supposed to run away with the Big East last year, not this year. Apparently someone got confused. Probably Louisville when they played South Florida. Anyway, the Mountaineers are BCS-bound, and should put up a better showing than Pitt did last year. My Orange seem to have imported the entire offense from my old high school, not just one tailback; at least, they can't score and make lots of mistakes, which seems like F-M (though we could at least complete passes sometimes).
Big Ten
Northwestern is tied with Penn State, Wisconsin, and Ohio State at the top of the Big Ten right now. I love the Wildcats' offense (okay, I like any school with a great offense that has nothing to do with the quarterback running and at least makes a token effort at run/pass balance). It's hard to see any of them except maybe the Buckeyes winning out, but with four teams with one conference loss and another four with two, I've got to figure one of the teams with one Big Ten loss right now finishes out on top, and sheer stubborness leads me to say it'll be Ohio State. Two Big 10 teams in the BCS? There's a slim chance if Ohio State and Penn State win out.
Pac 10
LA thinks it's the center of the universe, and in college football, this is actually true, with USC and UCLA sitting undefeated. Oregon's only loss is to USC, and they don't play UCLA, so assuming they get a QB back after losing two last week, they should be tied with the USC-UCLA loser for second in the Pac 10. I'd bet on UCLA for the second BCS at-large spot, assuming they beat everyone else and don't lose too badly to USC; they have the best chance of finishing with one loss, a high ranking, and not winning their conference.
SEC
Alabama and Georgia are very good teams, but I've thought for weeks that the SEC champ will have two losses and injuries have only made that more likely. LSU and Auburn are still in the mix for the SEC West and for the SEC title, but there's a serious lack of offense in the SEC right now. If I'm wrong, though, and there are two SEC teams with one loss or less after the SEC title game, the non-champ will have a real shot at an at-large BCS spot.
Independents and non-BCS conferences
Notre Dame is guaranteed a BCS bid if they have 9 wins and are in the top 12. The computers don't like them right now, but if ND wins out (they'll be favored in every game, heavily against everyone but Tennessee), and a few teams above them lose something other than close game to each other (which seems a near certainty), they'll be there.
But as for BCS busters? I don't think so. No one will be undefeated, and that means they'd need to knock off a top-10 team to prove legitimacy to the pollsters. Fresno State has a slim chance, as they play USC and their only loss was to an Oregon team that should be rising in the polls. TCU (after Oklahoma's slide to irrelevance and overtime games against Baylor, and losing to SMU) and Toledo (lost to Fresno) won't get that shot. And that's it for one-loss teams in the non-BCS conferences.
So my expectation as things currently stand...
ACC Champ: Virginia Tech
Big 12 Champ: Texas
Big East Champ: West Virginia
Big Ten Champ: Ohio State
Pac 10 Champ: USC
SEC Champ: LSU
BCS title game: USC v. Texas
BCS at-large teams: Notre Dame, UCLA
