irdeggman said:
Something to think about though is a USC-Michigan championship game. Not likely, but real possible. IIRC this would be in the Rose Bowl not the BCS because they would be #1 & #2 (I could be wrong on this though).
The BCS #1 and BCS #2 always play in the BCS title game. When the BCS was just the Bowl Alliance, the Big 10 and Pac 10 weren't part of the system.
USC-Michigan for everything is extremely unlikely. They could lose to Ohio State and make this whole discussion academic, but if this weren't a "rivalry game", we wouldn't even be considering the possiblity.
First, Oklahoma and Auburn have to both lose. That puts them on an semi-equal footing with Cal, Texas, Michigan, and Utah (Utah effectively has a 1-loss penalty by virtue of playing in the MWC; Boise effectively has a 2-loss penalty for playing the WAC, so they're not in this discussion, sorry).
Cal probably moves up to #2 if Auburn and OK go down. But let's suppose the pollsters aren't interested in a Cal/USC rematch (alternatively, Cal loses the Big Game), so they let someone else leapfrog them. And let's suppose pollsters just aren't willing to put an MWC team in the title game (alternatively, they lose to BYU). But unless Texas loses, they're going to stay ahead of Michigan. Michigan certainly leapfrogs Oklahoma if the Sooners lose (they have to play Baylor and the Big 12 North champ; losing either game pretty much knocks the Sooners to the bottom of 1-loss major conference teams), but I'm not sure they leapfrog Auburn (they've got to play Alabama and the SEC East champ; losing one of those games would be far less damaging).
So you'd need
1) Oklahoma must lose once.
2) Auburn must lose once, and probably must lose twice.
3) Cal must lose or be robbed by the pollsters.
4) Utah must lose or be robbed by the pollsters.
5) Texas probably must lose (if Michigan blows out Ohio State, and Texas beats A&M by a field goal, Michigan might leapfrog Texas).
I think it's safe to say Michigan's out of the national championship picture.