D&D and the rising pandemic

[robus]

With all due respect to the good doctor manning the front lines, a “bad flu” wiped out 50 million people before we had the vector of high-speed jet travel affordable for a vast cross-section of humanity.

I’m sure she’ll appreciate the mansplaining when she gets a break from her shift!

Edit: my bad, the doctor in question is a man.

 

[Beleriphon]

I’m sure she’ll appreciate the mansplaining when she gets a break from her shift!

I think Danny was more pointing out that even a "bad flu" is nothing to scoff at. And by all accounts COVID-19 is immensely more virulent. I'm not personally really concerned about it killing anybody I know. I lived near enough to Toronto during SARS for it to be something of a concern, but the Canadian health authorities have generally been pretty good about containment.

 

[NotAYakk]

So, here is an actual reasoned and backed discussion of what is going on.

Tomas Pueyo

Italy and Israel and SK and Japan and China are not overreacting.

France, UK, USA are in trouble.

Unless someone is saturation testing, you should assume 1 death means 800 infected. Washington has 24 deaths, so probably close to 20,000 people are infected today; on the other hand, 20 of them are in one building, so maybe only 3200. Error bars are large.

There are 190 confirmed cases, but that is just because they aren't saturation testing. But 190 is not a realistic number with zero controls, no saturation testing, and 4 distinct clusters of deaths.

It takes ~20 days for someone to die of this. In ~20 days, each sick person infects ~8 people uncontrolled. The death rate is ~1%. So for each person who dies, there where about 100 people infected who didn't die 20 days later, and those 100 people infected 800 more people.

There are large error bars on this. But this matches what happened in Italy and elsewhere when they started saturation testing; the number of cases sky rocketed "out of nowhere". Without saturation testing, you get only the people who are really sick ~3 weeks into their illness, by which time each represents ~40 people in the community who have the virus and are either still developing symptoms, or didn't get really sick.

Again, there are large error bars; 40 could really be 15-400. 800 could really be 200-2000. But it gives you an order of magnitude.

Deaths are easier to count, as people get really sick before they die, and they seek medical help, and there are enough tests to test the people who are really sick with what is probably Covid.

NJ/NY has 1 death, so probably ~800 cases (wide error bars). Bay area has ~600 using different math (no deaths yet). Paris area has 20,000-100,000 (many deaths). UK has 5,000 based off deaths.

If they introduced mitigating measures today, their peak number of detected cases and deaths per day would happen in 3 weeks. If they wait a week, the peak doubles. If the peak passes their health care capabilities (as it has in Italy), death rate will climb.

Areas that mitigated early enough to stay under health care capacity have a death rate of 0.9%. Areas that don't have a death rate of 4%+. Currently nobody in the USA is mitigating enough.

 

[robus]

I think Danny was more pointing out that even a "bad flu" is nothing to scoff at. And by all accounts COVID-19 is immensely more virulent. I'm not personally really concerned about it killing anybody I know. I lived near enough to Toronto during SARS for it to be something of a concern, but the Canadian health authorities have generally been pretty good about containment.

I understand, I just think she was talking symptoms rather than virulence. Trying to compare it to people’s experience rather than historical record which would be meaningless to most.

 

[Nikosandros]

I understand, I just think she was talking symptoms rather than virulence. Trying to compare it to people’s experience rather than historical record which would be meaningless to most.

I agree with your post, but that doctor is a man. If you follow the link to the Italian page you can see a photo and Daniele is a male name in Italian.

 

[Sacrosanct]

For the record, if it seems like this has my attention, it’s because I live in Ground Zero for the virus in the United States. The first case of an American was the woman on the cruise who lives a few miles away. The first community case in the US period was a janitor who lives about two miles away. The 22 hospital workers quarantined are from my hospital down the road. The middle school kid who just tested positive is from my school district.

We haven’t been hit as hard as Seattle because that was in a retirement home, but we were the first to get positive results, and more every week. Hillsboro, Oregon. Lucky me lol. So yeah, I’m paying attention.

 

[robus]

I agree with your post, but that doctor is a man. If you follow the link to the Italian page you can see a photo and Daniele is a male name in Italian.

Ah my bad, I was thinking of this tweet thread and by the end forgot that she was translating. Apologies @Dannyalcatraz.

 

[Doug McCrae]

So, here is an actual reasoned and backed discussion of what is going on.

Tomas Pueyo

A very interesting (and terrifying for someone who lives in the UK) article. Thanks for posting. I think this excerpt is the most important part:

• Countries that are prepared will see a fatality rate of ~0.5% (South Korea) to 0.9% (rest of China).
• Countries that are overwhelmed will have a fatality rate between ~3%-5%

Put in another way: Countries that act fast can reduce the number of deaths by ten. And that’s just counting the fatality rate. Acting fast also drastically reduces the cases, making this even more of a no-brainer.​

 

[Sadras]

Maybe persuading you (and others) to be a little more proactive than just "hoping" a global pandemic will somehow miss your little corner of the globe.

This reminds me of when governments send thoughts and prayers after terrorist attacks.

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

I think Danny was more pointing out that even a "bad flu" is nothing to scoff at.

Bingo!