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D&D and the rising pandemic

Istbor

Dances with Gnolls
Yeah I was going to say. Not all weddings are the same. Some are pragmatic. Just not as common as today's more romanticized version.

Back on topic. Oof...
We had 1100+ new cases yesterday in Wisconsin. It is really hard to slow it down when only a few counties are actually mandating masks and trying to slow this spread, while the rest of the state is still celebrating ending the 'illegal' lockdown.
 

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Retreater

Legend
Yeah I was going to say. Not all weddings are the same. Some are pragmatic. Just not as common as today's more romanticized version.

Back on topic. Oof...
We had 1100+ new cases yesterday in Wisconsin. It is really hard to slow it down when only a few counties are actually mandating masks and trying to slow this spread, while the rest of the state is still celebrating ending the 'illegal' lockdown.
Yeah. There's very little unity in America. It's sad that we can't come together during a time of crisis.
 


NotAYakk

Legend
Numbers are starting to climb in Ottawa, Canada. Diagnosed 30-40 per day in a metro area of 1.3 million or so, significantly up from the single-digits it was down to.

Many of the new infections are from people breaking "stage 2" rules and having indoor parties. We have since moved to "stage 3", which permits bars to reopen.

Not a good trajectory right before school starts.

It feels weird to complain about 30 cases/day. But on a log scale that is -4.6 per capita, up from -5.2.

Florida on the log scale is -3.3 per capita. Texas etc is similar.

(An exponential growth curve moves up a log scale at a relatively constant rate, so when dealing with pandemics it can illuminate differences better.)
 

Zardnaar

Legend
Numbers are starting to climb in Ottawa, Canada. Diagnosed 30-40 per day in a metro area of 1.5 million or so, significantly up from the single-digits it was down to.

Many of the new infections are from people breaking "stage 2" rules and having indoor parties. We have since moved to "stage 3", which permits bars to reopen.

Not a good trajectory right before school starts.

Seems obvious management vs elimination doesn't work.

4 weeks ago Australia was similar to NZ now they're getting 400+ cases a day and there's fear it's spread outside Victoria.
 

NotAYakk

Legend
Seems obvious management vs elimination doesn't work.

4 weeks ago Australia was similar to NZ now they're getting 400+ cases a day and there's fear it's spread outside Victoria.
We where on a path to elimination; down to 5ish cases/day in most regions of the province (the size of most countries).

Rf was about 0.5. If there are 10 undiagnosed cases for every diagnosed, that means we where at ~50 infections/day and we where spotting ~5 of them (the rest would be asymptomatic or barely symtomatic; a factor of 10 is a safety factor).

At a cycle time of 4ish days, that is like 23 days away from 0 real infections/day. Elimination.

As Rf goes up, so does the number of cycles (pretty fast) to eliminate.

Maybe the government figured a vaccine was coming shortly, so manual elimination wasn't worth it... or maybe they just decided it wasn't worth rich people's tax dollars to finish the job.
 
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Zardnaar

Legend
We where on a path to elimination; down to 5ish cases/day in most regions of the province (the size of most countries).

Rf was about 0.5. If there are 10 undiagnosed cases for every diagnosed, that means we where at ~50 infections/day and we where spotting ~5 of them (the rest would be asymptomatic or barely symtomatic; a factor of 10 is a safety factor).

At a cycle time of 4ish days, that is like 23 days away from 0 real infections/day. Elimination.

As Rf goes up, so does the number of cycles (pretty fast) to eliminate.

Maybe the government figured a vaccine was coming shortly, so manual elimination wasn't worth it... or maybe they just decided it wasn't worth rich people's tax dollars to finish the job.

A month or so of full lockdown would wipe it out at 5/day.

Or bring down so low you can contain it.

Complacency perhaps.


No one's wearing masks,I think we have 7 somewhere.
 
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Umbran

Mod Squad
Staff member
As of August 1st, we have travel restrictions for folks coming into Massachusetts.

If you don't come from a list of low-risk states (at the moment, New England, NY, NJ, and Hawaii) or don't fit a short list of exclusions you need to:

1) File a travel form
2) Either quarantine for 14 days, or submit the results of a negative Covid-19 test.

Fail to do so and you are subject to a fine of $500/day you are not compliant.

No word on the enforcement strategy they intend to use.
 


Eltab

Hero
As of August 1st, we have travel restrictions for folks coming into Massachusetts.

If you don't come from a list of low-risk states (at the moment, New England, NY, NJ, and Hawaii) or don't fit a short list of exclusions you need to:

1) File a travel form
2) Either quarantine for 14 days, or submit the results of a negative Covid-19 test.

Fail to do so and you are subject to a fine of $500/day you are not compliant.

No word on the enforcement strategy they intend to use.
I can see where truck drivers and trucking companies are going to be hardest hit.
Followed by whoever is waiting on the cargo carried on those trucks.
 



Zardnaar

Legend
I can see where truck drivers and trucking companies are going to be hardest hit.
Followed by whoever is waiting on the cargo carried on those trucks.

Should be able to do freight contact free or close to it.

When we shut everything down truckies still kept going. Some rules just got suspended.
 

As of August 1st, we have travel restrictions for folks coming into Massachusetts., or submit the results of a negative Covid-19 test.
...
No word on the enforcement strategy they intend to use.

This sounds like it probably wouldn't hold up in court. Anything that puts controls on interstate trade is only supposed to happen at the federal level.
 


Umbran

Mod Squad
Staff member
I can see where truck drivers and trucking companies are going to be hardest hit.

Most of them are likely covered by "workers providing critical infrastructure services" exception (if, for example, they are hauling groceries or other needed stuff), or the "transitory travel exemption" (if they are passing through the state to get somewhere else).
 


Dannyalcatraz

Schmoderator
Staff member
Or, to clarify Umbran’s response, there’s SCOTUS precedent upholding the broad powers of Governors to act in pandemics and even lesser health crises dating back over 100 years. Border closures and other travel restrictions, quarantines, masking orders, etc. are all within state government powers, assuming those states did not restrict themselves with their own constitutions or other legislation.

See Compagnie Francaise de Navigation a Vapeur v. Board of Health of State of Louisiana, Jacobson v. Massachusetts, Zemel v. Rusk and others, discussed here:

 

Theo R Cwithin

I cast "Baconstorm!"
It still perplexes me (though, tbh, it doesn't surprise me) that, this many months into the pandemic, the US still doesn't have a top-level clearinghouse of travel information on states' restrictions, dates, form requirements, etc. It would be helpful if some federal agency was tracking and collating all this stuff as it is released, retracted, extended, expired-- perhaps something like the State Dept's travel advisory pages.
Bonus XP if this data is offered in an easy-to-use interactive or map format.

And if someone is aware of such a database, could you please point me to it?
 

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