D&D and the rising pandemic

[Dannyalcatraz]

I absolutely care about people's lives. And since this obviously isn't working, we should be looking for a different solution than wearing the damned mask.

It would be working better if more than 50% of Americans were actually wear them, socially distanced, and washed their hands.

See Japan. As mentioned more than once in this thread, they have an older population, a higher population density, their lockdowns were not as broad and were largely voluntary. By those facts, you’d expect them to be worse off than we are.

Instead, our death rate was @30x higher than theirs.

Why? Because their masking rate is over 90% and their population takes hand-washing seriously.

No joke- before the astounding Pfizer and Moderna vaccine efficacy results were announced, leaders of the CDC & other organizations told us that masks at @70% reduction rates would likely remain more effective than any vaccine from a public health perspective. And that’s still mostly true.

As for looking for other solutions...what do you think the global drive for vaccines and therapies is all about?

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

Can I tell a secret?

Spoiler: Secret

Spoiler: Very Secret

Spoiler: Incredibly Secret

Spoiler: There's nothing wrong with saying it, I should have free speech.

I have never worn a mask, this entire time, this entire pandemic. I've gone about my daily life. And nobody's told me not to. I can walk into a restaurant, into a doctor's office, into the theater, into the park. And I'm fine, just like everyone else I brush past.
Once, I had it. And I have never had it since.

Now we know who to suspect is hiding a bite in a zombie apocalypse scenario.

 

[Zardnaar]

It would be working better if more than 50% of Americans were actually wear them, socially distanced, and washed their hands.

See Japan. As mentioned more than once in this thread, they have an older population, a higher population density, their lockdowns were not as broad and were largely voluntary. By those facts, you’d expect them to be worse off than we are.

Instead, our death rate was @30x higher than theirs.

Why? Because their masking rate is over 90% and their population takes hand-washing seriously.

No joke- before the astounding Pfizer and Moderna vaccine efficacy results were announced, leaders of the CDC & other organizations told us that masks at @70% reduction rates would likely remain more effective than any vaccine from a public health perspective. And that’s still mostly true.

As for looking for other solutions...what do you think the global drive for vaccines and therapies is all abou

In lockdown 1.0 you couldn't get masks so social distancing was used.

But yeah if in USA I would be using them assuming they're available.

 

[Umbran]

I absolutely care about people's lives. And since this obviously isn't working, we should be looking for a different solution than wearing the damned mask.

The fact of the matter is that, when people do wear the masks, it does work. It has failed as a strategy because some people refuse to cooperate, and actively undermine the strategy. These people are actively taking part in activities that put their friends and neighbors and coworkers in danger.

And, we ARE looking for other solutions. There are vaccines coming. But the research takes time. The manufacturing and distribution takes time. The masks are the thing we can do in the short term to keep people from dying.

You quoted a post of mine, in which I noted that 215,000 people were dead. That was 3 weeks ago. The dead now number 279,000. So.. TWENTY THOUSAND PEOPLE EACH WEEK have died.

You can wear the damn mask.

"There's nothing wrong with saying it, I should have free speech."

The guarantees of freedom of speech are protections from the government. Not the judgement of your peers, in private spaces. You can say it - but others are just as free to tell you that you're being an idiot.

And, so there's no misunderstanding - this is a line you haven't crossed yet, but you should know as this is your first day - Morrus owns the place, and he has no patience for pandemic misinformation.

I have never worn a mask, this entire time, this entire pandemic. I've gone about my daily life. And nobody's told me not to. I can walk into a restaurant, into a doctor's office, into the theater, into the park. And I'm fine, just like everyone else I brush past.
Once, I had it. And I have never had it since.

How nice for you. I don't expect you'll want to hear what the statistical repercussions of those behaviors were.

 

[Zardnaar]

The fact of the matter is that, when people do wear the masks, it does work. It has failed as a strategy because some people refuse to cooperate, and actively undermine the strategy. These people are actively taking part in activities that put their friends and neighbors and coworkers in danger.

And, we ARE looking for other solutions. There are vaccines coming. But the research takes time. The manufacturing and distribution takes time. The masks are the thing we can do in the short term to keep people from dying.

You quoted a post of mine, in which I noted that 215,000 people were dead. That was 3 weeks ago. The dead now number 279,000. So.. TWENTY THOUSAND PEOPLE EACH WEEK have died.

You can wear the damn mask.



The guarantees of freedom of speech are protections from the government. Not the judgement of your peers, in private spaces. You can say it - but others are just as free to tell you that you're being an idiot.

And, so there's no misunderstanding - this is a line you haven't crossed yet, but you should know as this is your first day - Morrus owns the place, and he has no patience for pandemic misinformation.



How nice for you. I don't expect you'll want to hear what the statistical repercussions of those behaviors were.

This free speech doesn't protect you from social pressure including job loss.

The concept dates from when the king could kill you for insulting him. It was very arbitrary what the insult was.

A french knight got the death penalty for having sex with two of the king's sisters iirc

The king here is Morrus. His house his rules he is the DM. If he rules you have to use blue text well blue it up baby.

His knights/enforcers are Umbran and Danny aha he if the delicious cooking.

 

[NotAYakk]

I absolutely care about people's lives. And since this obviously isn't working, we should be looking for a different solution than wearing the damned mask.

Sure. The alternative is a lot of people die.

It is a lot like stabbing someone with a knife. The alternative to not stabbing.someone with a knife is that the person shot has a good chance of death.

With initial treatment, the death rate was about 1% of infected (varies eith demographics), and treatment advances have seemed to about half that death rate since then.

Areas where people distance and wear a mask and cut off areas that don't see the virus not soread, so fewer people die.

As you remove some of that, infection rates go up, and more people die. Cause, effect.

Starting this month, an alternative is starting to trickle in. My best guess is 1/300 of the population of the covud-plague-heavy zones will die in the USA from covid 19 before vaccination stops it.

Areas of the world where infection control works will see closer to 1/3000 dead, about 10x less, or better.

Tracking down which of the 1000s of people in your country you may have killed by not wearing a mask is hard. On average, a each covid unsafe person only kills about 1 in 30, give or take. A good stab with a kitchen knife follwed by rapid paramedic help is probably about that deadly.

Most people who stab random strangers with knives in hospitals then run away and don't get caught are not described as "respecting life" by credible people.

But the anti-mask movement in most countries is the majority people, so responding to their actions to the scale of the consequences is not permitted. So we pretend it is a legitimate difference of opinion.

 

[Zardnaar]

Sure. The alternative is a lot of people die.

It is a lot like stabbing someone with a knife. The alternative to not stabbing.someone with a knife is that the person shot has a good chance of death.

With initial treatment, the death rate was about 1% of infected (varies eith demographics), and treatment advances have seemed to about half that death rate since then.

Areas where people distance and wear a mask and cut off areas that don't see the virus not soread, so fewer people die.

As you remove some of that, infection rates go up, and more people die. Cause, effect.

Starting this month, an alternative is starting to trickle in. My best guess is 1/300 of the population of the covud-plague-heavy zones will die in the USA from covid 19 before vaccination stops it.

Areas of the world where infection control works will see closer to 1/3000 dead, about 10x less, or better.

Tracking down which of the 1000s of people in your country you may have killed by not wearing a mask is hard. On average, a each covid unsafe person only kills about 1 in 30, give or take. A good stab with a kitchen knife follwed by rapid paramedic help is probably about that deadly.

Most people who stab random strangers with knives in hospitals then run away and don't get caught are not described as "respecting life" by credible people.

But the anti-mask movement in most countries is the majority people, so responding to their actions to the scale of the consequences is not permitted. So we pretend it is a legitimate difference of opinion.

I think our death rates more like 1 in 70 but the overall deathtoll has been negligible.

Only had half the ICU beds of Australia hence going hard and early. Bit more ambulance at top of cliff than the bottom.

Plan was to buy time for vaccine but kinda eliminated it. Over achieved.

 

[BookTenTiger]

Can I tell a secret?

Spoiler: Secret

Spoiler: Very Secret

Spoiler: Incredibly Secret

Spoiler: There's nothing wrong with saying it, I should have free speech.

I have never worn a mask, this entire time, this entire pandemic. I've gone about my daily life. And nobody's told me not to. I can walk into a restaurant, into a doctor's office, into the theater, into the park. And I'm fine, just like everyone else I brush past.
Once, I had it. And I have never had it since.

"I don't wash my hands after pooping. Nobody tells me to."
"I don't cover my nose and mouth when I sneeze in public. Nobody tells me to."
"I don't cover an open wound when it's bleeding. Nobody tells me to."
"I don't throw my trash in a trash can, I just drop it on the ground. Nobody tells me to."

I'm always surprised in zombie movies how people act in ways that so obviously put themselves and others in danger. Luminous, you are showing just how realistic these movies actually are!

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

Vaccine distribution update: some- but not all- of our hospitals will be getting it in the first wave getting the Pfizer vaccine, followed by certain critical patients. Pharmacies, second-tier healthcare facilities and others will have to wait. As things stand, my Father is not on the list for getting vaccinated NOW, but expects to be no later than the second wave.

Also, it seems the Moderna shows pretty high immunity lasting 3 months or so. If the Pfizer vaccine- made using a similar method- is likewise induced strong but short lived immune responses, the predictions of C19 being a pathogen we’ll be dealing with annually are probably accurate.

 

[Umbran]

"I don't wash my hands after pooping. Nobody tells me to."
"I don't cover my nose and mouth when I sneeze in public. Nobody tells me to."
"I don't cover an open wound when it's bleeding. Nobody tells me to."
"I don't throw my trash in a trash can, I just drop it on the ground. Nobody tells me to."

In this case, we can add...

"I drive while drunk. Nobody tells me not to."

With initial treatment, the death rate was about 1% of infected (varies eith demographics), and treatment advances have seemed to about half that death rate since then.

Overall, the US has had 14.6 million cases, and 281,000 deaths (the reported number went up since my previous post earlier tonight!).

That's an overall mortality rate more like 2%. Yes, that's including the period earlier this year when hospitals were getting swamped. But, guess what? They're getting swamped again. Advances in treatment will fail when cases overwhelm the healthcare system.

Reports I've seen recently for the US give the virus a reproductive number around 4 when folks ignore safety precautions like masks and social distancing.

If someone gets it, they will probably survive. But if we treat them like a statistically average case they'll give it to four people. If they're likewise ignoring safety, each of them will give it to 4 more (adding 16, bringing the total to 20). Those 16 will each infect four more (adding 64, to a total of 84). One of those people dies. The 64 each infect 4 (adding 256, bringing the total to 340 infected.) At this point, with that 2% mortality rate, six people are probably dead.

Each of those generations take about a week. If they die, they probably do so within a month of getting sick. So, if you walk around unprotected, and get covid... statistically speaking, within two months, you may be fine, but six other people are dead.