D&D and the rising pandemic

[ccs]

A bit of the 1st & probably a lot of the latter.

 

[Umbran]

Let’s assume the new avian flu was essentially identical to the 1918 variant. You’re looking back at stats from 100 years ago, but important things have changed. While our practice & science of medicine have improved, so has the speed of travel. A person infected with the flu today could be spreading it on the other side of the world tomorrow. That was impossible in 1918.

Another highly relevant thing has changed: population density. The US, for example, has tripled in population since 1918. That means three times as many people to get sick...

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

If there is another epidemic, we won't have Nixon to kick around any more.
So when the plans do not work out as envisioned, will the "experts" use data from past experience to change adapt and (we hope) improve The Plan, or will they stand on the sidelines, point fingers at each other / everybody else, and complain?

I believe the word ”if” would be more accurate here.

There was a pandemic plan. It was not followed. Some leaders incited their followers to do the exact opposite of what medical experts advised.

Where such advice was actually followed, better results followed.

And the thing is, the recommendations for a flu epidemic are essentially identical to those for C19. I seriously doubt those who pooh-poohed things like masking, distancing and hygiene orders will be any more inclined to follow them for Pandemic 2: Electric Boogaloo. (In fairness, part of that is due to the fact that the 2009 swine flu pandemic was pretty mild.)

Even if the current avian flu outbreak never reaches American shores, at some point, another serious flu (or coronavirus or something worse) pandemic WILL happen and WILL affect our citizenry. Then we’ll find out whether people have the wisdom to follow the advice of highly trained and educated medical professionals.

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

Another highly relevant thing has changed: population density. The US, for example, has tripled in population since 1918. That means three times as many people to get sick...

I meant to mention that and my brain farted. Thanks for filling that particular gap!

 

[Hussar]

Although, to be fair, if proper measures are taken, population density doesn't seem to be a big contributing factor. I mean, Japan has what, ten times the population density of the US and only 1% of the deaths? It just freaks me out to watch how poorly the West has handled all of this. It's just so mind boggling that, in Canada, we've had 16000 plus deaths and people are STILL protesting mask mandates.

It really is discouraging.

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

Although, to be fair, if proper measures are taken, population density doesn't seem to be a big contributing factor. I mean, Japan has what, ten times the population density of the US and only 1% of the deaths? It just freaks me out to watch how poorly the West has handled all of this. It's just so mind boggling that, in Canada, we've had 16000 plus deaths and people are STILL protesting mask mandates.

It really is discouraging.

They had that low percentage largely because- as noted- they masked and practiced stepped-up hygiene, generally speaking. Had we done likewise, we would have had hundreds of thousands more Americans still breathing air.

I mean, we’re still trying to get the percentage of Americans who wash their hands after using the bathroom over 60%.

Y’all Nasty: CDC Confirms People Aren’t Washing Their Hands After Using the Bathroom

It’s cold and flu season, which means entire offices are being taken down by the germs and bugs that people pass around because they are not exercising even the most basic office and germ prevention etiquette.

www.theroot.com

Add to that the probability that a Japanese person will stay home from work when contagious Vs Americans who would do likewise.

 

[Umbran]

Add to that the probability that a Japanese person will stay home from work when contagious Vs Americans who would do likewise.

Hr. I mean, I have a well-paid, salaried job. I have sick days, and a really lenient work-from-home policy to fall back on. Lots of other folks, not so much.

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

Hr. I mean, I have a well-paid, salaried job. I have sick days, and a really lenient work-from-home policy to fall back on. Lots of other folks, not so much.

No question, that’s not an option everyone has. An Indian politician made that point months ago regarding lockdowns & quarantines in his country.

But in Japan- a country much more like ours, economically- you’re expected to stay home when and if you can, or mask & glove up if you can’t. And for the most part, that’s what happens. It’s a wholly different set of expectations, up and down the societal strata.

 

[Eltab]

I believe the word ”if” would be more accurate here.

I stand by "when".
No plan survives contact with the enemy.

And if what we implemented was a medically-derived plan, it suffered gaping flaws that non-experts saw early on (pat self on back):
Little effort to contact trace unless the patient became Intensive Care serious.
Did not distinguish between sick and healthy.
Did not separate the sick from the healthy, nor put containment lines around areas known to be affected to prevent carriers from spreading it more widely.
No research (or findings ignored) into immunobooster activities that would help civilians fend off exposure.
Lockdowns had not been used against any other epidemic for a century; why was this the proper strategy and not another?
The potential economic and psychological side-effects of universal lockdowns not taken seriously - and led straight to a violation of Hippocrates' maxim "First, do no harm" when they became actual effects.

Hmph, I'm bleeding over from the plan to stubbornly refusing to adapt it as circumstances dictated, I'll stop now.

 

[ccs]

I stand by "when".
No plan survives contact with the enemy.

And if what we implemented was a medically-derived plan, it suffered gaping flaws that non-experts saw early on (pat self on back):
Little effort to contact trace unless the patient became Intensive Care serious.
Did not distinguish between sick and healthy.
Did not separate the sick from the healthy, nor put containment lines around areas known to be affected to prevent carriers from spreading it more widely.
No research (or findings ignored) into immunobooster activities that would help civilians fend off exposure.
Lockdowns had not been used against any other epidemic for a century; why was this the proper strategy and not another?
The potential economic and psychological side-effects of universal lockdowns not taken seriously - and led straight to a violation of Hippocrates' maxim "First, do no harm" when they became actual effects.

Hmph, I'm bleeding over from the plan to stubbornly refusing to adapt it as circumstances dictated, I'll stop now.

12% of a plan.... Winging it works in a sci-fi movie. Not so much in a real life crisis.