D&D and the rising pandemic

[robus]

Slightly off-topic, but I think the world is going to be really passed-off at China if their wet markets lead to another outbreak of this magnitude. This really cannot turn into an every few years thing.

 

[The Green Hermit]

Slightly off-topic, but I think the world is going to be really passed-off at China if their wet markets lead to another outbreak of this magnitude. This really cannot turn into an every few years thing.

Agreed. It is also a wake up call that more of our goods need to be manufactured at home. I am not against all aspects of the global economy, but a pandemic in one country should not create a crisis in another.

 

[FrogReaver]

No. But we are living in the Dunning-Kruger Chainsaw Massacre.

There is a common misconception of the logical fallacy of the appeal to authority. You are correct if you say that the fact that an authority said it, doesn't make it true, in and of itself. It is an argument on trusting a personality, rather than an effort.

Then I am correct.

The appeal to authority says that a person who is an expert cannot rest on their laurels - they have to actually do the work, show the logic. "Because I am an expert and I say so," does not cut it. "Trust me, I'm a doctor," has no standing. The fact that an expert in the field has been furiously working with real-world data, however, still means a great deal, and has much standing.

Two things that the appeal to authority doesn't say: 1) An expert is likely to be wrong, and 2) A non-expert is likely to be correct, or has the understanding to properly critique an expert.

Sure. "Show your work" - which the expert paper in question didn't.

If you are not an expert, your say so doesn't mean anything either. Your "feeling" that they are missing things is worthless. Can you show your logic and do the work? If so, you should do so. If not, your input on whether they're correct is of no value.

That's a little blunt, and I'm sorry for that. But it is true.

Or you could have just asked me what I thought he was missing and make a decision based on that instead of wording things in a way to cause someone to take offense.... I guess that issue happens to the best of us.

 

[FrogReaver]

Yes, but to flatten it enough to keep it under US healthcare capacity, you need to stretch the epidemic over 10 years.

Untrue. You are one super sensationalist.

 

[MarkB]

I normally go to a gaming club of around 20-30 people on Friday nights, and run a game on alternate Saturdays. Yesterday, I decided to stop attending both of these until after the virus is in decline in the UK.

This does unfortunately leave some of the club members in the lurch next month, as I was to be DMing a game from the start of April, but there's already talk of suspending the club next session in any case.

As for my Saturday game, after getting things organised at very short notice, I've just finished our game session over Discord, and it all went suprisingly well. I actually had an easier time running combat DMing with a PC in front of me and multiple D&D Beyond windows open than I would have done flipping through books at our usual table, and while we missed the face-to-face aspect we could all hear each other well enough and our game proceeded with the usual mix of fun and banter. By next session I'll have some visual aids such as VTT software set up, and we'll be able to carry on very nearly as normal.

 

[briggart]

Every location that has beat this back has engaged in large scale social isolation. Right now I'm staring at stats out of Italy to find out if their relatively modest restrictions are enough to make the growth curve go sub-exponential (the last 2 days looked good -- 2400, 2600 new cases -- if they keep it up over the weekend, I'm really excited).

We had 2795 new cases and 175 dead today. So it seems that slowing trend of the last few days is continuing, but we are still a hair's breadth from the edge.

 

[seebs]

Um, I said, and I bold:

" a few posts ago ".

I am saying that it is a good way to convince people to do what needs doing. It is a lie, in that it pretends that it is a solution (with the graph going to zero). It isn't.

It isn't in and of itself. The curve is quite likely to eventually get fairly close to zero. It might take a long time. But flattening the curve reduces the total harm during the time the disease is active. Again, look at the charts of St. Louis and Philadelphia during the 1918 flu. Flattening the curve meant that half as many people died.

And the graph eventually went to zero, even though we didn't have any of the tools then that we do now.

Slowing it down gives us time to develop a supply of people with immunity, it gives us time to work on antibodies and vaccines (some researchers claim to have isolated antibodies for it, already!), and also reduces the number of people who get killed. Sure, it'll still be bad, but it'll be way less bad, and it's also the only thing most people can do anything about personally.

 

[R_J_K75]

Then I am correct.

Does it really matter? At this point all that matters is WrestleMania is still on!!

 

[R_J_K75]

that was a joke

 

[seebs]

Yes it does. But it isn't a solution.

No one said it was. But it's the thing we can actually do, those of us who aren't researchers or epidemiologists or whatever.

We aren't going to do this for 10 years. If our plan is to actually develop herd immunity and get 30%-70% infected, and we do it over 10 years, we stay under capacity. If we do it in 5 years, we blow past capacity, and death rates hit 3%-5% instead of 4%-10%. If we do over 1 year, death rates become basically the same as if we never did it.

I think you're underestimating the degree to which social distancing is non-boolean. You can wash your hands more often for ten years, no big deal, and even that helps reduce the death rate.

We have 1 solution that works.

I think we may be talking past each other.

Yes, general quarantine and lockdown practices are, in fact, a good solution... But the reason that SK's handling is working is, in part, massively different starting assumptions and environment. That works great if you can start it right away, but once you've missed the window for it, you've missed it, and we missed it, here in the US. So we do have a pandemic. We are not making the pandemic go away short of vaccines or herd immunity. It's too widespread.

Yes, we should social distance and reduce transmission. "Flatten the curve" as a solution is what I'm talking about. The idea we just let it saturate the population and we just make it happen slower doesn't work (well, I'm not willing to give up yet), and if our solution is "flatten the curve" that is all it provides.

No one is suggesting it as a solution, they're suggesting it as a course of action that is available to everyone.

Researchers are still gonna work on vaccines and things. All I can usefully do is minimize social contact myself, quarantine if there's anything suggesting I might have the thing, and advocate for those courses of action for other people.