D&D and the rising pandemic

[Umbran]

I predict that if we are successful in slowing the infection rate, a large faction of the population will sit there and claim that it wasn't that big of a deal in the first place and people just overreacted.

If the rate slows after weeks of distancing, I tink folks will get the connection.

 

[Umbran]

when people start to get out of money, more robberies will happen, more home invasions means more defenders and offenders end up dead.

The two best analogies we have - the Great Depression and the Great Recession do not support this. While crime statistics for the 1920s and 1930s are not great, they don't support the idea of a notable rise in crime. And, in most areas of the US during the Great Recession, crime rates fell, rather than rose.

There's two basic explanations for this - 1) People aren't actually as bad as we think, and 2) When an economic downturn leaves many people without money, nobody has much worth stealing.

 

[Sacrosanct]

One absence does not a banning make. It’s ominous, yes, but not dispositive.

There was an article about him being barred at a particular interview back in February. And looking at past examples of people in that particular admin being barred from speaking publicly, I think it's a safe bet to say he can't speak anymore without WH approval. Either way, it's a pretty strong coincidence that he disappears right when the WH shifts tactics and are now pushing a narrative to end restrictions to help the economy rather than saving lives, don't you think?

 

[Sacrosanct]

now, while stock market is probably trumps primary goal, we should think about what will breaking of the economy do to the general population, and will it in the end cause more dead within 1 or 2 years that 2 or 3% that you mentioned from Covid19.

People will be out of money and they will get "cabin fever" on top of that.

when people start to get out of money, more robberies will happen, more home invasions means more defenders and offenders end up dead.

Muggings and possible murder in the streets for trying to get a few bucks fast from some unsuspecting person.

Rising of violence at home due to money shortage and confinement, all the minor problems that two people have in their relationship will surface and be blow completely out of control.

Divorce rates will be interesting in 6-12 months. More broke up families, more children raised in sub-optimal or even abusing homes, means more criminals in next generation.

I had this conversation the other day with my partner (via whatsapp since we are quarantining from each other ), and yes, there is no win here. At some point does the damage from the economy cost more lives than the virus itself via starvation, lack of medical care etc? What is that number?

I just don't think we should be willing to suddenly shift gears to accept all these deaths from the virus before we even have test kits available to people, PPE to hospitals, and we don't even know if the stay at home orders work. 15 days isn't nearly long enough to make that decision.

 

[Mistwell]

There was an article about him being barred at a particular interview back in February. And looking at past examples of people in that particular admin being barred from speaking publicly, I think it's a safe bet to say he can't speak anymore without WH approval. Either way, it's a pretty strong coincidence that he disappears right when the WH shifts tactics and are now pushing a narrative to end restrictions to help the economy rather than saving lives, don't you think?

Dr. Fauchi was at a task force meeting during that presser and had said a couple days ago he'd be likely missing some of the pressers because he still has a lot of work he's doing every day with the task force.

 

[Umbran]

I had this conversation the other day with my partner (via whatsapp since we are quarantining from each other ), and yes, there is no win here. At some point does the damage from the economy cost more lives than the virus itself via starvation, lack of medical care etc? What is that number?

Well, a bit of reading tells me that the Great Depression can be blamed for about 7 million deaths by starvation and malnutrition. The upper end estimates for bad covid-19 are a couple of million. So.... you need to tank the economy on the same order as the Great Depression to get similar deaths.

 

[ad_hoc]

Well, a bit of reading tells me that the Great Depression can be blamed for about 7 million deaths by starvation and malnutrition. The upper end estimates for bad covid-19 are a couple of million. So.... you need to tank the economy on the same order as the Great Depression to get similar deaths.

A major difference is that our technology is so far advanced now that we have far more resources than they did at that time.

People are worried, for example, about how they're going to be able to afford their homes. Well, the homes are there. The problem isn't that there aren't enough homes.

 

[Zardnaar]

Glad I'm not in America. Bailout was passed days ago, they've moved onto mortage and rent freezes, countries locked down and they're creating bubbles to contain stuff.

If your workplace is essential eg food production not McDonalds the idea is limit the contacts. They know they can't contain it but want to limit it's spread.

 

[Zardnaar]

A major difference is that our technology is so far advanced now that we have far more resources than they did at that time.

People are worried, for example, about how they're going to be able to afford their homes. Well, the homes are there. The problem isn't that there aren't enough homes.

We had crisis here. A lot of foreign speculators left, Air BnBs are coming up for long term rent and I suspect empty hotels etc will get used for emergency housing.

We probably have an extra 100 000+ people here on visas trapped, there's an adopt a backpacker for 4 weeks scheme going and they're working with various Embassys to locate people and get them home.

 

[Theo R Cwithin]

We probably have an extra 100 000+ people here on visas trapped, there's an adopt a backpacker for 4 weeks scheme going and they're working with various Embassys to locate people and get them home.

Hmm... To be completely honest, I kinda wish I was trapped in New Zealand instead of rural west Texas.