D&D and the rising pandemic

[MoonSong]

And, we should remember that there's a lag between changes in behavior, and results. So, Memorial Day weekend? If there are results from that, we'll start seeing it in a week or two...

Last weekend, we started having the aftermath of Mother's Day. Lot's of new patients, who got exposed on May 10th. Next week it'll be the result of people organizing "corona-parties", because of course they started doing them.

 

[Zardnaar]

Six days in a row with no new cases. One death from preexisting case taking the total to 22. 12 more recovered active cases 8. Lady who died was 96, had technically recovered but it was decided Covid was a contributing factor.

Went shopping first time in months
Partly to check out new gamestore part lunch part curious.

Seemed more or less normal. Quite a few about. Social distancing rules though. Means the gamestore can't run D&D nights.

Announcement June 22 about going to level 1. With a probable 4 month delay between sessions and the loss of 1 maybe 2 players might start new campaign or play Star Wars D6 until I can recruit a new player.

Covids also interrupted D&D supplies. Store can't get that much early on. He wants to set up AL and get a D&D night up and running.

Random photo just because.

Social distancing. Group of 3 is one bubble. Everyone else spaced out in a half circle.

 

[Hussar]

Sigh. My ken has had about 30 new cases in the past week after a couple of weeks of zero cases. Bit scary to be honest considering the kids just went back to school.

 

[Zardnaar]

Sigh. My ken has had about 30 new cases in the past week after a couple of weeks of zero cases. Bit scary to be honest considering the kids just went back to school.

Japan iirc? Lack of testing perhaps.

Broke my bubble tonight with the inlaws. Went out to local bar/restaurant.

Kinda quiet but great night. Limited menu.
Went in early, $3 craft beers during happy hour

Dessert. Cookie with icecream.

Staff got 80% of their wage subsidies from government during lockdown. Place filled up later in the night.

Cookie was amazing. Very got similar to a brownie. In April we lost 34000 jobs scaled up to America levels around 2 million.

Things been better but in the grand scheme of things can't complain. It's not normal but close enough.

Kind of the Sword of Damocles though. Will Covid come back, will the economy collapse?

Eat and drink now tomorrow might be terrible.

 

[Istbor]

Lady who died was 96, had technically recovered but it was decided Covid was a contributing factor.

Oooo, that kind of reasonable talk over here in the US could get you classified as a fear-monger or sheep.

I just had to listen to a friend talking about how someone died in a car accident and had tested positive for COVID-19 so was marked as umong the virus' victims. So that is why the US is doing better than the media claims. All he got from me was a heavy sigh.

 

[Deset Gled]

I just had to listen to a friend talking about how someone died in a car accident and had tested positive for COVID-19 so was marked as umong the virus' victims. So that is why the US is doing better than the media claims. All he got from me was a heavy sigh.

I want to live in the alternate reality where testing for COVID is so common for every dead (and live) body that cases like this are the biggest hurdle to accurate data.

 

[NotAYakk]

Well it's Tuesday and we didn't see an increase in reports to make up for the (long) weekend.

Only 700 deaths in the USA were reported today.

Florida reported only 500 new cases and 7 deaths.

To put this into comparative context Florida and Texas both have roughly as many confirmed cases per capita that Canada has.

Florida has almost half as many recorded deaths per capita as Canada. Texas has less than 1/3 as many deaths per capita.

Canada's death count is higher than expected due to long term care deaths but that is still a huge discrepancy.

Assuming you are only getting reliable tests from people who need hospital care, getting sick requires 2-14 days and getting sick enough to go to hospital often another few days. Then another few days for a test turnaround.

So an increase in exposure over May 22-25 wouldn't start showing up until early June.

This graph:

is amazingballs. It shows that Covid-19 in wastewater predict diagnosed Covid-19 cases by a week with an above 0.9 correlation.

That increase in C19 in wastewater means those people are infected and shedding virus. And it takes a week after they are shedding virus that some subset of them show up, get tested, and the test results come back.

How long it takes to go from initial C19 exposure to shedding C19 out your bum is another question, but it isn't going to be negative days.

Suppose it takes about 2 days to go from C19 exposure to it coming out your bum. Then it will take 7 more days for you to be diagnosted. Thus a 9 day lag.

May 22-25 is May 31 to 34, aka May 31 to June 3rd.

And like most exponential functions, the cost of the new infections isn't just the new infections, but all of the people they'll infect.

 

[MoonSong]

Assuming you are only getting reliable tests from people who need hospital care, getting sick requires 2-14 days and getting sick enough to go to hospital often another few days. Then another few days for a test turnaround.

So an increase in exposure over May 22-25 wouldn't start showing up until early June.

This graph:

is amazingballs. It shows that Covid-19 in wastewater predict diagnosed Covid-19 cases by a week with an above 0.9 correlation.

That increase in C19 in wastewater means those people are infected and shedding virus. And it takes a week after they are shedding virus that some subset of them show up, get tested, and the test results come back.

How long it takes to go from initial C19 exposure to shedding C19 out your bum is another question, but it isn't going to be negative days.

Suppose it takes about 2 days to go from C19 exposure to it coming out your bum. Then it will take 7 more days for you to be diagnosted. Thus a 9 day lag.

May 22-25 is May 31 to 34, aka May 31 to June 3rd.

And like most exponential functions, the cost of the new infections isn't just the new infections, but all of the people they'll infect.

Worse, the thing takes anything from 1 to 3 weeks to show symptoms. So it can take up to a month for a new contagion to be detected. And people are contagious while showing no symptoms.

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

Worse, the thing takes anything from 1 to 3 weeks to show symptoms.

...assuming you’re not among the asymptomatic majority.

 

[ad_hoc]

...assuming you’re not among the asymptomatic majority.

Yeah, I think people don't often think of the difference between 'pre-symptomatic' and 'asymptomatic'.