If it makes a billion, D&D could end up being the next MCU. Now, I've been thinking that $600M or so would be the absolute highest worldwide gross it could go, and there's no way it could get to $1B. But then I thought about it some more, and it's probably not impossible.
Fifteen years ago, Paramount took a chance on another nerdy property, that while popular in some circles, certainly didn't have what was considered mass appeal to general audiences. Iron Man, of course, broke through the barrier of just being for Marvel fans, appealing to a wide audience with a fun, engaging story with an amazing performance by RDj, earning $600M worldwide in 2008 (about $900M in today's dollars).
Last summer, Top Gun Maverick had early opening weekend estimates in the $75M-$80M range and a project worldwide gross in the $400-500M range, and of course it went on to a $150M opening and $1.5B worldwide total. Paramount had a similar media blitz with Top Gun, with interviews appearing in all kinds of mass market magazine/web-sites.
Now, I'm not saying that D&D is going to get close to Top Gun numbers, but would a performance around Iron Man be possible? Paramount certainly knows how to open a tentpole film, and the media blitz I've been seeing 4 weeks prior to release tells me that they think they have a film that could break through to general audiences, and that they are giving the movie the full push to get there. Even the release date move seems now to be calculated on having the SxSW screening generate additional buzz leading up to the release (something they absolutely wouldn't do if they didn't think they had a good movie on their hands).
And then there's the synergy with Keys from the Golden Vault on DDB. D&D:HAT is being described as a heist movie, and DDB is full of articles about running the perfect heist, heist movies to inspire your game, etc. If half of DDB subscribers see the film opening weekend, that would be $60M in box office right there (double that if most go with a SO or friend).
I'm still sticking with my estimate of around $500M worldwide for the film (which would still be considered a hit), but if the film is as good as Paramount thinks, maybe a billion isn't crazy to think about.