d20 bubble bust?- High Prices, too many books

Responsibility

RyanD said:
In my opinion, that's the best solution to the long term problem of the "d20 glut" - responsible purchasing by distributors and retailers.
Ah, but the keyword here is "responsible". Distributors, quite frankly, cannot be relied upon to be responsible as far as turning away the crap product. They will sell it into the retail chain just as readily as a Wotc product because they are going to make their money off of it regardless. This leaves the reatiler to act as the 'shovelware' filter. As Wulf has already said (which I agree with soundly), game shop owners tend to fall into three camps: the hobbyist, the business professional, and the one who can properly balance both and make money. Of the three, only the last has the tools necessary to make informed decisions regarding which products to stock and which to avoid. Unfortunately, 90%+ of game shop owners are the hobbyist type who bought heavily into the initial 3.0 launch and still have those same books collecting dust because they won't accept any sale of less than full retail price for them. So when Mr. Hobbyist Gamer gets his Games Quarterly and starts making out his order sheet, he sees all of the new d20 stuff there from new and established publishers and orders Wotc plus one or two others because that is all he can afford that week in his games budget after ordering Heroclix and Magic, which sell.

die_kluge said:
One of the things that I've noticed, is that game books tend to have a long shelf life.
Long shelf life but not long sales life. Another legitimate issue that has affected the success of publishers is backlist (or older title) sales. How many times have you gone into your FLGS to buy a book, been told that only one was ordered and it sold and never see a reorder of that title again? As of right now, the average sell through or shelf life sales cycle of a d20 product is down to 30 days. This means that a publisher will see 90% of his orders in the first 30 days. After that point, the numbers drop drastically and sometimes stop completely. This is because of two simple reasons, either the retailer has the product and it isn't selling or he has sold the product and not ordered another.

What does this mean to the publisher? Let's say Wulf (just to pick on him) printed 1500 copies of Grim Tales (great book by the way) and his initial preorders and 30 day sales totaled between 500 and 750 copies (which is pretty much what a lot of the 3rd party publishers are seeing). This means he now has approximately 1/2 to 3/4 of that initial run taking up warehouse space while backlist orders of the title after the 30 days drop to 100 or so per month (and even less as time progresses). So if the retailer isn't aware that he is out of stock of Grim Tales or has chosen not to reorder it (because he wants to use his budget for 'new' releases), then Wulf isn't making any more money from that title which leads to smaller revenue returns and less money to invest in his highly awaited next project, Heroes of High Favor Anthology. Less money means he has to use more of his personal finances from his saving account to pay for the development of the book, which puts him farther into the red when that book is released and does the same or poorer in terms of overall revenue. See the nasty cycle we have going here?

What can be done about it? Obviously, game store owners cannot stock one of everything unless they are willing to throw their money away. The smarter ones are already making changes, but not necessarily in the right direction completely. We've already heard (and I've even said) that some of these owners are only ordering from specific publishers for stock and special ordering the rest. Why are they ordering only certain publishers? Because those are the ones that sell in the store and may not always represent the cream of the crop in d20 publishing. Some of them are producing 'shovelware', but if it sells then the store owner will keep supporting that publisher. Want to see something from a different publisher carried by your FLGS, such as Wulf's or Joe's books? Then it is up to you, the educated gamer, to make an effective attempt at educating the store owner as to why he should stock this book. It is an uphill (and often losing) battle in most circumstances, but it may make a difference, especially if you have support by getting five of your friends to special order that book from him. :)
 

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buzz said:
Exalted (big time)
Buffy/Angel (not a major motion picture!)
HERO 5e (do new editions count?)

...and you could make arguments for:

Demon, Orpheus, Savage Worlds, HeroQuest, Riddle of Steel, and probably some others I'm forgetting.

It also all depends on how one defines "survived in the market".

New editions don't count. Neither do RPGs based on a major television shows (these would sell no matter what system). As to Exhalted, this is a White Wolf World of Darkness RPG. It does not count because it is not *truly* a new RPG. These World of Darkness games will always be pumped out.

Same goes for Demon and Orpheus. Haven't heard much about Savage Worlds but it will probably die soon (of course, I hope it doesn't). HeroQuest is just RuneQuest revised. Haven't heard much about Riddle of Steel either but I suspect it will keel over soon (once again, let's pray it survives).

Before d20 there were a lot of great non-d20 RPGs released that survived and aquired a large fan base: Vampire (and the rest of the World of Darkness), Deadlands, Ars Magica, Shadowrun, etc. Now I think this is 10 time more difficult.

Some might say d20 has raised the standard. But I say: Who's standard? d20 isn't going to suit everything and even before d20, true, it was difficult to make a successful RPG but now it's 10 times more difficult because it's so much easier to get the free OGL AND do better in the market.
 

Several stray thoughts:

Ghostwind said:
We've already heard (and I've even said) that some of these owners are only ordering from specific publishers for stock and special ordering the rest.

This reminds me of HR departments that refuse to look at a resume because the applicant doesn't have a specific degree, or the exact number of years in the field. It's a very blunt instrument and no substitute for actual industry knowledge and good judgement. As RD pointed at, it is acting as a barrier to entry, but the results sure don't seem to be what we want.


Wulf Rathbone said:
And I'd like to note that under the "3-6 products printed and ready to distribute" barrier, we wouldn't have Magical Medieval Society...

Exactly. Another "blunt instrument" which is unlikely to yield the results we want.


Baradtgnome said:
I am not ricidulously wealthy, however at this point in my life I can afford to buy many more products than I do. The limit for me is time.

Since this exactly mirrors my own situation, I wonder how widespread this is? I returned to D&D with 3E after a 10-year absence and, for a while, bought anything that seemed remotely interesting. When 3.5 came out, I finally realized that most of what I own won't ever be used because I haven't the time to use it. Now the products I'm most inclined to purchase are those that save me time. Most of what is on the market, no matter how interesting, isn't worth my time and, therefore, my money.

This leads me also to my last point: gamer/system fatigue. The bloom has worn off. We have real lives. Other activities, which took a backseat for a while, are now taking up time formerly spent on RPG's. For myself, gaming takes up only roughly 25% of the time it did when 3E first came out (in terms of preparation and gameplay). I binged, and now I'm taking a break from it. It naturally follows that I'm not going to buy as many products (especially after being burned more than a few times). I have no numbers to back this up, but I can't help feeling that this is not uncommon within the gaming community in general (EnWorlders possibly excepted).
 

Getting Books in Stores

The amount of times I've received emails from gamers saying 'I can't get your book in my local store - the owner says he can't get it', is quite frightening.

So I thought I'd call some of these stores, and they have universally said that they cannot get my books for one of the following reasons:

1. They only stock books from the larger publishing companies.
2. The book isn't available in their area.
3. They've never heard of it (or the company) and aren't going to order books from companies they don't know.

And my favorite:

4. Books from the UK are typically crap and they never stock them! (I'm sure they were talking about smaller UK publishers there, and not the rather enormous UK publisher whose shelves were stocked with their books at the time!)

It's almost as if there's a stigma attached to the smaller publishers. Getting books in stores has been a herculean task. But I get the feeling that it must be a huge waste of time for stores to bother stocking the low-selling products of the smaller companies when they can fill their shelves with the big sellers!

Regards

Stuart Renton
 

30 years a greying

dead said:
Before d20 there were a lot of great non-d20 RPGs released that survived and aquired a large fan base: Vampire (and the rest of the World of Darkness), Deadlands, Ars Magica, Shadowrun, etc. Now I think this is 10 time more difficult.

Some might say d20 has raised the standard. But I say: Who's standard? d20 isn't going to suit everything and even before d20, true, it was difficult to make a successful RPG but now it's 10 times more difficult because it's so much easier to get the free OGL AND do better in the market.

It is difficult, I agree. But I think your logic is kinda twisted. I might have misunderstood your argument, though.

You say that before d20, many original games were released and took a large fan base.

After d20, this has not happened. So d20 is to blame?

Those games that have a large, established fan base are just as likely to add to the problem. Why try something new when you have D&D, Shadowrun, Ars Magica, Vampire et al.

I don't think d20 has had such a large impact on this problem, as the fact that our hobby is 30 years old and the innovation becomes harder and harder. A lot of stuff have already been done, and coming up with something new and successful is really, really difficult. Not because of d20, but because of prior accomplishments in the field of roleplaying games.

Cheers!

Maggan
 
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Bottled Imp Games said:
The amount of times I've received emails from gamers saying 'I can't get your book in my local store - the owner says he can't get it', is quite frightening.

So I thought I'd call some of these stores, and they have universally said that they cannot get my books for one of the following reasons:

1. They only stock books from the larger publishing companies.
2. The book isn't available in their area.
3. They've never heard of it (or the company) and aren't going to order books from companies they don't know.

And my favorite:

4. Books from the UK are typically crap and they never stock them! (I'm sure they were talking about smaller UK publishers there, and not the rather enormous UK publisher whose shelves were stocked with their books at the time!)

It's almost as if there's a stigma attached to the smaller publishers. Getting books in stores has been a herculean task. But I get the feeling that it must be a huge waste of time for stores to bother stocking the low-selling products of the smaller companies when they can fill their shelves with the big sellers!

Regards

Stuart Renton


Ever thought about offering discounts directly to consumers? Just a thought, but if companies and people like Wulf are stuck with backlist, then why not come to places like EnWorld and offer discounts directly to consumers. Chances are, if you market the book after the initial release, then you will gain more sales of the book.

Personally, I see a lot of marketing for books that are about to be released, but after they are on the shelf, we hear nothing.

Marketing is important!
 

I have to say that with me, and EVERY gamer that I know personally, we have slowed down on d20 simply because 3.5 left a bad taste in the mouth.

Way too many changes, with very little (sometimes negative) improvement.

Sure, you can convert stuff back to 3.0, or some homebrew, but with the price of books who wants to do all that extra work?
 

BelenUmeria said:
Personally, I see a lot of marketing for books that are about to be released, but after they are on the shelf, we hear nothing.

Marketing is important!
Ah, but a lot of companies have offered deals here and elsewhere on backlist titles. Bastion has done it numerous times and it usually results in very few (if any) orders. I know that the same result has been seen with some of the other publishers. Marketing is important, but you still need the customer willing to buy those older products.
 

dead said:
As to Exhalted, this is a White Wolf World of Darkness RPG. It does not count because it is not *truly* a new RPG. These World of Darkness games will always be pumped out.
Exalted is not a WoD RPG. You can't negate it as an answer because it's published by an established company.

dead said:
Haven't heard much about Savage Worlds but it will probably die soon (of course, I hope it doesn't).
Considering it's going to be the basis for pretty much every RPG Pinnacle puts out from now on, I'm not sure it's going to die anytime soon. It has a hardcore following (which what pretty much any game that isn't D&D has).

dead said:
HeroQuest is just RuneQuest revised.
Nope. Not even close.

dead said:
Haven't heard much about Riddle of Steel either but I suspect it will keel over soon (once again, let's pray it survives).
So you're negating everything on the list because you have some precognitive ability to forsee their demise?

dead said:
Some might say d20 has raised the standard. But I say: Who's standard? d20 isn't going to suit everything and even before d20, true, it was difficult to make a successful RPG but now it's 10 times more difficult because it's so much easier to get the free OGL AND do better in the market.
The OGL is simply allowing all of the people who would have made forgettable RPGs to just use the SRD as a basis instead. The designers who have something unique to contribute (GoO, SJG, WW, Hero Games, Issaries, Atlas, etc.) still do so and people appreciate it.

You're looking at the past with rose-colored glasses. It was never easier. Some flavor of D&D has always been the most popular, and other RPGs have always struggled against it. Such is the nature of the market. Frankly, I think there are WAY more great RPGs around now than there were back in the 90s.

Anyway, everybody needs to read Monte's new Line of Sight, as he's talking about the whole bubble thing.
 

Ghostwind said:
What does this mean to the publisher? Let's say Wulf (just to pick on him) printed 1500 copies of Grim Tales (great book by the way)

Great by any standards, or just for a "fanboy?"

It's not worth it to me to print less than 2000. I'm an entrepreneur; risk is part of the equation. Since the bulk of printing costs are in setup, it will only cost a few hundred dollars more for another 500 books, with a much better upside.

and his initial preorders and 30 day sales totaled between 500 and 750 copies (which is pretty much what a lot of the 3rd party publishers are seeing).

My experience so far has been a little better than that, which I attribute in large part to the fact that I use Osseum as a fullfillment house, and they sell into the book trade as well as the hobby trade. My first month's sales have never been below 700-750 copies for any title. My best first month ever was Haflings, I think, which sold over 1000 copies, and that during a supposed "glut" in a depressed market. Elves was a close second.

This means he now has approximately 1/2 to 3/4 of that initial run taking up warehouse space while backlist orders of the title after the 30 days drop to 100 or so per month (and even less as time progresses).

As I said, my experience has been a little better than that, but this is a pretty good estimate. My second month's sales don't always drop that precipitously-- but within a few months, absolutely.

However, I knew going in that I should reasonably expect even a modest print run to take about a year to sell through, so it wasn't unexpected. Dwarves sold through its print run almost exactly a year later.

Less money means he has to use more of his personal finances from his saving account to pay for the development of the book, which puts him farther into the red when that book is released and does the same or poorer in terms of overall revenue.

I haven't been out of pocket since Dwarves, and have never lost money on any book.

Now, believe me, I'd love to see some stock moving quicker. There's a big difference between losing money and whether or not it's worth my time investment. Breaking even is fine for a "fanboy" for whom the reward is simply to contribute high-quality product to the community-- but the girlfriend is rather less forgiving about time spent developing products that aren't making money for her to spend. ;)

Want to see something from a different publisher carried by your FLGS, such as Wulf's or Joe's books? Then it is up to you, the educated gamer, to make an effective attempt at educating the store owner as to why he should stock this book.

This is very important.

Whenever folks ask me where to get my books, I always tell them first to ask their FLGS. Barring that, buy it online-- my books are carried by Barnes and Noble, Amazon, and Walmart.com.

Barring that, I will be happy to sell a copy direct from our webstore.

So to sort of answer Eric's question-- what can you, the gamer, do?

Demand high quality products (including mine, natch!). Make it clear to your local retailer that if he will not order the book for you, you will have to take your business elsewhere.

As I said in my earlier post, when a retailer tells you, "I can't order that book for you," 9 times out of 10 that means, "I can't be bothered to order that book for you."

If they tell you the product is out of stock, it's probably not true: Any product in today's market that is so successful as to actually go out of stock, believe me, the retailer will be jumping at the chance to reorder it for you.

Make it clear to the retailer that you represent more than the single sale of a single book, that you are a regular purchaser of RPG products and your dollars can be spent in his store, or elsewhere.


Wulf
 

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