barsoomcore said:
Well, it might, sure. What would you like WotC to do about that possibility? This is no evidence that d20 is bad for the market -- it's a natural result of an industry possessing one primary brand to which all others are drastically secondary. RPG = "Dungeons and Dragons" as far as branding goes and that means whatever associates with D&D is part of the vast majority.
Well, they could acknowledge that the rest of the industry exists. Was it under WotC's or TSR's helm that Dragon dropped all non-WotC/TSR content, including Roleplaying Reviews? If it hadn't been for Roleplaying Reviews in Dragon, i might never have gotten into games other than D&D (way back when), and i *might* have been one of those who burned out on AD&D2 and just quit gaming. [Not likely, given how much i love RPGs--but i might realistically have ceased being a consumer, just playing my homebrews.] D&D is going to be "the" intro RPG, with more people starting with it than probably all others combined. That means that anyone who hears about RPGs and decides to give them a try will probably first try D&D. I think we all agree that different people like different styles of RPGs, which means at least some of those people who first try D&D probably won't like it, but for reasons that are not inherent to RPGs. The easier it is for them to discover that those reasons aren't inherent, and that there are other RPGs that they would like, the more likely it is that they'll stick with gaming. And i don't just think this is a case of WotC being altruistic. I mean, first of all, these are customers they're gonna lose no matter what, so why *not* give them to other RPG companies rather than lose them completely? But, more importantly (from WotC's POV), i sincerely believe that a diverse, healthy RPG market is better than a non-diverse healthy market. That it is *not* a zero-sum game (except *maybe* within D20 System products), and that growing any part of the market is good for themarket as a whole, se that even having a more vibrant GURPS market actually helps the producers of D&D (by making distributors and retailers healthier, etc.). [If rumors are correct, even MS recognized that it was in their own best interests to keep Apple alive as a viable competitor.]
To worry that D&D is a fad, and that a fad will have a negative impact on a market, is perfectly sensible. Data is required to decide if it's in fact the case (what? data? in this conversation? off with you!), but it's a reasonable worry. But D&D being a fad is a very different thing than d20 being bad for the market.
d20 may be contributing to fad-like market behaviour by making it easier for publishers to get in on it, but that'll be a short-term effect (as fads always are). In the long term, making it easier for publishers to join the ranks and advertise their increased "compatibility" is good (I know you think compatibility is unimportant and that I'm just buying into a myth, but so far I haven't seen any evidence from you that this is the case, so I'll trust my own judgement there).
Well, specifically i worry that D&D3E may be faddish, not D&D as a whole--i think it's already shown too much staying power to fit that label. But i'm sure that's what you meant.
As for advertising compatibility: there's no evidence i'm aware of that, prior to WotC's OGL there was anything preventing the creation and advertising of increased compatibility. OK, how much of a game copyright protects was a bit ambiguous. But just look around (and at videogame court cases) for ample evidence that advertising compatibility, including using others' trademarks, is perfectly legal, so long as (1) you properly declaim the marks, (2) you're honest, and (3) you don't mislead the customer.
Please don't think that my questions or constant complaints about lack of data originate from suspicion of you. I'm sure that you're speaking with honesty and conviction -- your posts are well-reasoned and make it clear that you care about this subject and know a great deal about it. But you can't expect me to accept a conclusion if I'm not given any evidence to support it.
It's not a question of trust, only of supporting evidence. It's important to me that you understand that. I would not want you thinking I consider you untrustworthy.
Sorry, got a bit snippy there. I wasn't really taking it personally, so much as getting a bit frustrated. I'm better now.
And for this you blame d20? Look there's two possibilities here. Either gaming consumers are dummies and can't tell good products from bad. OR, your notions of good products versus bad products are out of line with what the market thinks.
I mean, who are the publishers that are saying, "Yeah, you know those really crappy books we put out, the ones that totally suck? They sell just as well as the really good ones we put out."? What are your standards for good products versus bad ones? Reviews? Your opinion? Anecdotal evidence?
None of that is worth anything in the context of the market. Plenty of movies get horrible reviews and yet go on to garner big wads of cash. I know lots of movies I think were brilliant that did poorly. I can tell endless stories of movies my friends hated that struck gold at the box office. You saying that bad products make as many sales as good products does nothing to bolster your case that d20 is bad for the RPG market.
Actually, i'm looking at the market, not my own opinions: reviews here and at RPGNet and other places, discussions, and anything else that talks about "good" and "bad" D20 System products. I *know* better than to even consider my opinion of them if i'm trying to look at market behavior, since i've long since learned that my personal opinion of D20 System products is almost exactly opposite of the market's, because what i want in an RPG product (fluff) is almost exactly opposite what sells in a D&D3E product (crunch). To take a quick example: Mongoose is obviously selling like hotcakes--it bumped established companies out of the top 5 in Ken Hite's data. Mongoose also frequently shows up in lists of "i can't believe this company still exists with all the crappy product they put out" in discussions online. Similarly, i regularly see thier "Quintessential ..." books listed as horrible. Likewise, they don't generally get very good reviews. Yet they *must* be selling reasonably well, because they keep making them.
But, you're right, i hyperbolated. I don't think that any RPG producer is saying "shovel the crap--they'll buy it anyway". At worst, i think they're simply not using terribly rigorous standards of quality control because they probably can't see an obvious correlation between sales and their internal opinion of the quality of the product (any producer should know what they think of their products, and know that not all are equally good, despite their best efforts). For that matter, the producers probably also can't see an obvious correlation between reviews (even if you "average" a bunch of them) and sales data. At least, assuming RPGs are like all other forms of art and entertainment, where there is no clear-cut superior product or objective standard, so reviews and sales often won't line up.
Oh, as for minimal difference between crappy and awesome products, that comes from extrapolation on my part. I hear that a typical printrun in the small-press [RPG] world is 3000-4000 units. At least one company i talked to [withholding the name at the moment, because i'm not sure they wanted the data to be public] routinely sells 1000-2000 units on preorder alone, with their worst-selling product of all time selling 750 units on preorder. So, let's take a middling estimate of 1500 units sold on preorder on a printrun of 4000 with a shelf life of 3mo. At the absolute most extreme, the awesome seller can only sell about 2.5x as much as the poor seller, because they both start out with 1500 units sold from day one. And it doesn't require consumers to be dummies who don't know what they want for this to happen--the more frontlist-oriented the industry gets, the easier it is for this to happen, because more and more it becomes buying a product when it first comes out and putting it on the shelves until it sells, and that's it--no reorder, whether it sells quickly or slowly. Obviously, we haven't reached that point yet, and something that sells quickly enough gets reordered. But that's the direction things are moving, IMHO.