Decline of RPG sales

[MerricB]

I do. On average, across the industry, per SKU sales of RPG products are down from where they were 5, 10, 15, and 20 years ago.

That's per product, isn't it?

If in 1985, a product sold 20 copies, whilst in 2005, two products each sold 15 copies, the per SKU sales would be down despite the actual total volume being higher?

Cheers!

 

[philreed]

If in 1985, a product sold 20 copies, whilst in 2005, two products each sold 15 copies, the per SKU sales would be down despite the actual total volume being higher?

You're close. Change that "15" to "3" (or maybe even "4") and you're a lot closer to the reality of sales in today's market.

I'm not sure why people are having such a hard time understanding this. Across all entertainment industries, per unit sales are down. Comics. Books. CDs. Hell, even TV ratings are down from where they used to be. Yes there are hits that break the average sales numbers. Yes there are hits that set records. I'm talking about average unit sales, here.

It's because there are more choices today.

 

[philreed]

I continue to be amazed that people take PR dumps as gospel truth.

I think the people that do that don't want to accept that sales are down. They want us to tell them that things are better than ever.

I know why companies say things are going great when they're not. I can't understand why fans tell publishers things are going great -- after publishers come out and say that times are hard.

 

[WizarDru]

It is not a competition. D&D, the World of Darkness and GURPS are not really competing brands. They do spin variations out to compete with each other (like horror genre stuff for D&D and fantasy stuff for GURPS), but the core brands themselves are not in competition with each other.

I beg to differ. I used to run GURPS 3rd edition as my primary choice for RPGs. I currently still own approximately 65+ GURPS settings books. Since 2000, I have purchased...none. Zero. Zip. Nada. Haven't purchased the Fourth Edition, either. NOR HAVE ANY OF MY PLAYERS.

Why? Because I'm playing D&D, not GURPS. Certainly, there are folks who own and play both. I was one of them, a long time ago. But every dollar I spend on one game is a dollar I DON'T spend on another. I didn't pick up Magic of Eberron the other day. Why? Because I wanted Mutants & Masterminds, Second edition. I've made it clear to my gaming group that I want to run M&M soon...and since four members of my group play City of Heroes/City of Villains, they're willing to go. I've just sold four copies of that book (two purchased, two actively searching this week).

My budget and my players budgets are not infinite. There is plenty of room for multiple systems to survive and even thrive...but they most certainly are in direct competition; for shelf space, for consumer dollars and for mindshare.

 

[MerricB]

You're close. Change that "15" to "3" (or maybe even "4") and you're a lot closer to the reality of sales in today's market.

I'm not sure why people are having such a hard time understanding this. Across all entertainment industries, per unit sales are down.

It's because you're talking about something different from what others are.

"Per unit" sales means little when you discuss "total sales".

So, change my example to:
In 1985, there was only 1 book. It sold 20 copies.
In 2005, there were only 10 books. Each sold 3 copies.

In my example 2005, the actual total industry sales have grown, but the actual publishers are making much less profit (if any at all). More money being divided between far more people.

That this may be happening is not surprising. What is more unclear is whether the *total* market is currently shrinking.

I believe that the traditional distributor/retailer market is breaking down. I've been reminded that not only are online sellers now part of the market, but we also have the book trade. As D&D will sell through Amazon and big book chains, that would seriously distort sales through the comic stores and retailers that CGR and then Ken Hite gets his figures from, surely?

Personally, I think Wizards, since 3.5e, have produced a much greater range of products and thus come into competition far more with d20 System publishers than before. If you're a d20 System publisher, this is unlikely to be a good time for you unless you're very good at what you do.

As for the non-D&D market, that is one area I'm currently extremely unqualified to comment on. Hopefully, Palladium is continue to slip, but the other companies are at least holding steady.

Cheers!

 

[eyebeams]

I beg to differ. I used to run GURPS 3rd edition as my primary choice for RPGs. I currently still own approximately 65+ GURPS settings books. Since 2000, I have purchased...none. Zero. Zip. Nada. Haven't purchased the Fourth Edition, either. NOR HAVE ANY OF MY PLAYERS.

Why? Because I'm playing D&D, not GURPS. Certainly, there are folks who own and play both. I was one of them, a long time ago. But every dollar I spend on one game is a dollar I DON'T spend on another. I didn't pick up Magic of Eberron the other day. Why? Because I wanted Mutants & Masterminds, Second edition. I've made it clear to my gaming group that I want to run M&M soon...and since four members of my group play City of Heroes/City of Villains, they're willing to go. I've just sold four copies of that book (two purchased, two actively searching this week).

My budget and my players budgets are not infinite. There is plenty of room for multiple systems to survive and even thrive...but they most certainly are in direct competition; for shelf space, for consumer dollars and for mindshare.

Actually, it's because you and your players have decided that you don't want to play a universal, gritty system. At no point did D&D sell itself to you on its ability to do what GURPS does. You did decide you wanted to play a superhero game. At no point did you agonize over whether D&D or Mutants and Masterminds was the best out of book choice for playing superheroes.

 

[philreed]

"Per unit" sales means little when you discuss "total sales".

So, change my example to:
In 1985, there was only 1 book. It sold 20 copies.
In 2005, there were only 10 books. Each sold 3 copies.

In my example 2005, the actual total industry sales have grown, but the actual publishers are making much less profit (if any at all). More money being divided between far more people.

That this may be happening is not surprising.

You're absolutely correct. Thank you for understanding!

 

[philreed]

"Per unit" sales means little when you discuss "total sales".

One more important point.

What was the retail price of that 1 release in 1985 and what was the price of those 10 releases in 2005?

Now same question, but what were the production costs?

I think it becomes very clear why so many publishers are saying things are down.

 

[MerricB]

You're absolutely correct. Thank you for understanding!

I *like* understanding. Thanks for bearing with me.

That state of things isn't good for individual publishers (although a few might be doing fine). So, what is likely to happen? Publishers get out of the industry. Hey, isn't that happening now?

The question is: what then? Do they take their buyers with them, or do their buyers adapt? If they (mostly) adapt, we get back to only a handful of big dominant companies, and only a handful of "hobby" publishers.

Conversely, if the total sales of the entire industry are down as well (which is very hard to tell just from per SKU sales), then we're definitely in trouble.

For the actual retailers and distributors, the problem with thousands of SKUs becomes a real one of storage and display. If you had one product that sold 100 copies, it's quite easy to deal with. 100 products that sell 1 copy each? Ergh. Not good. The profit from both may be the same, but the pain of dealing with them is much worse.

What is worse is 50 products that sell 2 copies and 50 products that don't sell at all, because those 50 non-sellers sit there and take up valuable space which could be devoted to actual selling products. But how do you tell these products are non-sellers?

(There are reasons that D&D Minis are so popular with retailers and distributors, and that's one of them).

Cheers!

 

[MerricB]

I think it becomes very clear why so many publishers are saying things are down.

Oh, absolutely. For many publishers, this isn't a good time.

Cheers!