Decline of RPG sales

[eyebeams]

I could be way off but NO other publisher is in competition for WOTC market share. No one. Not White Wolf, not Steve Jackson Games, not Atlas and not Mongoose.

I could be 100% wrong but don't think so and don't think that they ever were or will be in a position to get market share fro mWOTC.

It is not a competition. D&D, the World of Darkness and GURPS are not really competing brands. They do spin variations out to compete with each other (like horror genre stuff for D&D and fantasy stuff for GURPS), but the core brands themselves are not in competition with each other.

Talking in terms of marketshare for different lines is like asking what the effects of Gwen Stefani's sucess with LAMB are on Toby Keith's sales. It's nonsensical and chiefly important to companies in terms of the PR the hurl at gamers on message to hawk a brand, because gamers on message boards seem to believe in this "competition."

 

[eyebeams]

But it's pretty good for an RPG company that isn't WotC, WW, GW/BI, or Mongoose. For a PDF publisher, it's a runaway hit.

Not really. It's just that the average company works on that scale because it's not doing well. Most healthy companies print 2-4 times as many core books and the top 5 print that many supplements, as far as I can estimate based on Best Books' (an former printer) RPG runs a couple of years back.

With the exception of runaway hits, .pdfs sell at 5-10% of this scale if profitable, even less if not. This is why the less successful publishers were in an uproar after RPGNow briefly posted sales number ranges for their copper-platinum rankings. I wager that many customers don't know that the average .pdf (the average not being profitable) sells in the low double digits.

 

[JoeGKushner]

Not really. It's just that the average company works on that scale because it's not doing well. Most healthy companies print 2-4 times as many core books and the top 5 print that many supplements, as far as I can estimate based on Best Books' (an former printer) RPG runs a couple of years back.

With the exception of runaway hits, .pdfs sell at 5-10% of this scale if profitable, even less if not. This is why the less successful publishers were in an uproar after RPGNow briefly posted sales number ranges for their copper-platinum rankings. I wager that many customers don't know that the average .pdf (the average not being profitable) sells in the low double digits.

Let's see.. on this post, John Nephen noted "Since we just surpassed our 2004 total year's sales, and 2004 beat 2003, I'm pretty confident that I have a handle on these things, " So that's an upswing.

On the Publisher board, Mongoose noted that they did better than last year. another upswing.

Wizards of the Coast noted that they've done better than previous years. Biggest dog in the park.

And once again, this doesn't count sell throughs from other companies becuase they don't talk about the size of their print runs... oh where are the rolly eyes when you need them.

 

[Mark CMG]

A person who would otherwise buy 1-3 d20 System products a month could get 1-10 boosters for the same price. Hmm.

Don't you start putting no idears in folkses heads, SMilinB!

 

[philreed]

Let's see.. on this post, John Nephen noted "Since we just surpassed our 2004 total year's sales, and 2004 beat 2003, I'm pretty confident that I have a handle on these things, " So that's an upswing.

If I remember correctly that also includes card game sales.

 

[JoeGKushner]

If I remember correctly that also includes card game sales.

Then we get into the tricky slope of chopping card game sales out of the RPG sales. It'd be possible to do, but then we have to define the industry. Is Atlas in the industry or do we just count what Atlas contirubes towards the RPG field as being in the industry? A slippery slope if you ask me. "Well, they released PDFs of their normal catalog and thus unfairly supplemented their income unlike a true publisher" or some nonsense will them crop up.

 

[eyebeams]

Then we get into the tricky slope of chopping card game sales out of the RPG sales. It'd be possible to do, but then we have to define the industry. Is Atlas in the industry or do we just count what Atlas contirubes towards the RPG field as being in the industry? A slippery slope if you ask me. "Well, they released PDFs of their normal catalog and thus unfairly supplemented their income unlike a true publisher" or some nonsense will them crop up.

No, not really. This is a discussion of RPGs. Card sales are irrelevant. If card sales are being counted it is a mistake to take these figures into consideration. It has nothing whatsoever to do with rendering a value judgment about the publisher.

 

[JoeGKushner]

No, not really. This is a discussion of RPGs. Card sales are irrelevant. If card sales are being counted it is a mistake to take these figures into consideration. It has nothing whatsoever to do with rendering a value judgment about the publisher.

Since most RPG companies also do other things, including Steve Jackson Games, Wizards of the Coast, Green Ronin (through Human Head), Mongoose (miniatures), and others, how do you propose to seperate the two since you don't have the sales data of the RPG units in the first place? :\

Cutting hairs here.

 

[philreed]

how do you propose to seperate the two since you don't have the sales data of the RPG units in the first place?

I do. On average, across the industry, per SKU sales of RPG products are down from where they were 5, 10, 15, and 20 years ago.

 

[eyebeams]

Uh, Joe, did you actually read my post? 'Cuz you're not responding to it. That's not an attack, since I honestly don't know what your response has to do with my comment about "competition" being somewhat illusory between different brands.

But what the heck. I'll respond to what you *did* write:

Let's see.. on this post, John Nephen noted "Since we just surpassed our 2004 total year's sales, and 2004 beat 2003, I'm pretty confident that I have a handle on these things, " So that's an upswing.

Good for John.

On the Publisher board, Mongoose noted that they did better than last year. another upswing. Wizards of the Coast noted that they've done better than previous years. Biggest dog in the park.

I continue to be amazed that people take PR dumps as gospel truth.

And once again, this doesn't count sell throughs from other companies becuase they don't talk about the size of their print runs... oh where are the rolly eyes when you need them.

You're mistaken. I know the size of print runs because I actually gathered data about print run sizes from a printer that produced runs for GoO, White Wolf and others. I know the scale of .pdf sales because I write and develop .pdf products and network with others that do.