Decline of RPG sales

[philreed]

Conversely, if the total sales of the entire industry are down as well (which is very hard to tell just from per SKU sales), then we're definitely in trouble.

This I'm not sure of. I've heard distributors and retailers say both, that overall sales are equal and that overall sales are down. I think the only way we'll discover the truth is through patience -- wait and see how many more businesses in the industry scale back, change to card/board only, or just die.

 

[WizarDru]

Actually, it's because you and your players have decided that you don't want to play a universal, gritty system. At no point did D&D sell itself to you on its ability to do what GURPS does. You did decide you wanted to play a superhero game. At no point did you agonize over whether D&D or Mutants and Masterminds was the best out of book choice for playing superheroes.

No, it's because I wanted to play a fantasy game in a system I perceived as better. We didn't play GURPS as a grim-and-gritty game. We DID use GURPS for our Supers game. I started with D&D, moved to GURPS for Fantasy and Supers, then moved back to D&D & to d20 for those genres. D&D MOST CERTAINLY DID sell me on it's ability to do what GURPS did.

You're trying to make a case that D&D doesn't cannibalize sales of a game like M&M or Vampire because they cover different topics. I'm telling you that, at least in the case of my gaming group, that is demonstrably wrong. Your core assumption is that I decided to purchase a superhero game FIRST, and then I decided upon M&M instead of Godlike, Champions or a host of d20 supers options. I didn't make that decision. I decided that M&M looked good, after hearing a lot of good press, and decided to put D&D down for a while to play M&M. I consciously chose not to purchase Races of the Wild, for example, so I could purchase Freedom City. WotC lost my money in favor of Green Ronin.

 

[MerricB]

This I'm not sure of. I've heard distributors and retailers say both, that overall sales are equal and that overall sales are down. I think the only way we'll discover the truth is through patience -- wait and see how many more businesses in the industry scale back, change to card/board only, or just die.

Indeed.

You see, I think the distributors and retailers are correct: their sales *are* down. However, I'm sure that there's now a big portion of trade going on outside those areas: online and through the regular book trade.

I see a lot of DDM being ordered online. I think this applies to RPGs as well, and it has to have an effect.

Cheers!

 

[philreed]

You see, I think the distributors and retailers are correct: their sales *are* down. However, I'm sure that there's now a big portion of trade going on outside those areas: online and through the regular book trade.

I completely agree with you on this. Unfortunately, many of the smaller publishers can't get into the book trade. And the one consolidator that seemed to specialize in the book trade went down taking tens of thousands of dollars with them, hurting the publishers.

I think PSI is working to repair that damage, though, and could become a valuable tool for a lot of smaller publishers. I'll be curious to see how they work out.

 

[MerricB]

I completely agree with you on this. Unfortunately, many of the smaller publishers can't get into the book trade. And the one consolidator that seemed to specialize in the book trade went down taking tens of thousands of dollars with them, hurting the publishers.

We saw from TSR's example how tricky the book trade could be for *big* publishers. It says a lot for Wizards that they seem to be reliably selling through that channel.

It's a lot riskier for small publishers, that's for sure.

I think PSI is working to repair that damage, though, and could become a valuable tool for a lot of smaller publishers. I'll be curious to see how they work out.

I wasn't aware of that. (Not really surprising, as I'm not a publisher. )

Even so, if I understand how the book trade works at all - I'm taking about returns - it will still be very risky.

Cheers!

 

[philreed]

Even so, if I understand how the book trade works at all - I'm taking about returns - it will still be very risky.

Well, I think the people behind PSI* have enough experience in this area -- and enough business sense -- so that it won't be quite as risky as it first appears.

* Another White Wolf-related company. I _think_ they're separate from White Wolf but still related. I'm not 100% certain on the relationship.

 

[rounser]

Again, I'm seeing "innovateive"/"leading" = "stuff that I liked".

I was thinking of "innovative"/"leading" but not necessarily "commercially successful", whereas I think you're thinking of "leading" = "commercial success". It's subjective, but I don't really see Eberron as being particularly innovative in the former sense compared to those predecessor settings I brought up.

I think it would have been interesting to see the result if WOTC had gone fully Final Fantasy with Eberron...I think that's my main complaint with it - I think that if you're going to cross-pollinate D&D with other genres, it should be a focused and complete hybrid. Or a full hybrid with pulp "indy jones" (i.e. introduce lots and lots of contemporary technology and 30s tropes - if enough come along it's no longer anachronistic). But then, we're back into "what I like" territory there, obviously.

 

[Lonely Tylenol]

Indeed.

You see, I think the distributors and retailers are correct: their sales *are* down. However, I'm sure that there's now a big portion of trade going on outside those areas: online and through the regular book trade.

I see a lot of DDM being ordered online. I think this applies to RPGs as well, and it has to have an effect.

Cheers!

I know I order most of my books online. And I use Amazon's wishlist system to get other people to order me books online. Given how many people on these boards complain about not having access to a local store they like to go to, I wouldn't be surprised if the market is moving online in fairly large numbers. Maybe it's a good time to be an online retailer, and a bad time to be a meatspace retailer. Hell, I just threw $60 at SJG for some old GURPS stuff when the prices all went $9.99. If I order Ptolus for $120 it'll be online too.

 

[BryonD]

I can't understand why fans tell publishers things are going great -- after publishers come out and say that times are hard.

Different points of view.

It is a buyer's market. As you and Merric concluded, more money, but divided among a lot more publishers.

From my point of view, things are great. There is a ton of stuff out there to buy. I am buying less because I have so much already covered in my collection now. But if I want something else I can very frequently find it.

I think this is a great time to be a gamer.
That doesn't mean it is automatically a great time to be a game producer. Though I do believe that there are some publishers doing well still. It is certainly fair to take the insider statements of wonderful times with a grain of salt. But it is equally fair to do the same when lesser achieving competitors "poo poo" those claims.

Anyway, as some publishers fall away the buyer's market will shift back toward publishers. Though I don't bet it will go real far that direction soon. But no matter what, we are not at all talkign doom and gloom from a buyer POV. It could just go from GREAT to very good.

So I can agree with every fact you have offered up and still be a fan that is going to tell you that things are great even after you tell me times are hard. And I am right about it.

That is why.

 

[philreed]

So I can agree with every fact you have offered up and still be a fan that is going to tell you that things are great even after you tell me times are hard. And I am right about it.

I've definitely never tried to say that now is a bad time to be a gamer. Now is a great time to be a gamer. What I mean -- and this may be bugging me because it is the same few people -- is that every time a publisher comes out and says sales are bad a fan jumps in to say sales have to be better than ever.

In this thread alone we see sarcastic comments regarding sales. People insisting again and again that sales can't be bad when they have no information. I -- and many, many others that contribute to the discussions here -- have facts from other publishers, distributors, and retailers, and the facts say that sales are bad right now.