Did WotC underestimate the Paizo effect on 4E?

[Mallus]

WoTC is in kind of a no win situation, in that they're almost too big for the D&D brand to be SUPER sucessful.

A good argument can be made for WotC being the wrong-sized company for the D&D brand right now.

As for Paizo's effect on 4e... they wouldn't have had any on my experience w/the system. While I hear Paizo makes great products, they simple aren't the kind I'm in the market for (I homebrew adventures and setting exclusively).

 

[Kaiyanwang]

Well I'm an example of the opposite situation. I started a new homebrew campaign (is de facto several one-shots with different characters in the same gameworld) using PFRPG core + bestiary only.

My players jumped in it enthusiastically, and I recovered old ones too. I have 8 of them at the gametable, and could increase.

 

[Jor-El]

I homebrew too, and PF works just fine. Like anything, you have to tweak and re-skin some things every once in a while, but that's no different than any edition of an RPG.

 

[Agamon]

Well I'm an example of the opposite situation. I started a new homebrew campaign (is de facto several one-shots with different characters in the same gameworld) using PFRPG core + bestiary only.

My players jumped in it enthusiastically, and I recovered old ones too. I have 8 of them at the gametable, and could increase.

I'm in the same boat. I lost a couple players when we played 4e, so I changed to HackMaster Basic, lost a couple different players playing that. I was the only one harboring a grudge towards 3.5, thanks to my DMing the high-level adventures in AoW (3 years and I still cringe at the thought of it), but to get the group back together, I gave in and we're playing PF, with the conditions of no high-level play and core rules only. And now I have all my players back plus a couple.

 

[El Mahdi]

Bow Down Before the Godsmite Donkeyhorse!

WHERE IS YOU GOD NOW?​

 

[Jack99]

Not many pundits anticipated the economic meltdown of late-2008 and the subsequent aftermath, with the exception of the "permabears" who are always screaming "the sky is falling" anyways. A broken clock is always right, two times every day.

My clock says 21:58.

At which two times a day is it right?

 

[ggroy]

My clock says 21:58.

At which two times a day is it right?

An old cuckoo clock.

 

[Reigan]

After the change from 3.0 to 3.5 they were probably worried about asking people to switch again so soon. Hence the rather aggressive marketing campaign pointing out that this time there were real changes and why (they felt) players should make the switch.

Don't forget the market had saturated & sales had tailed off. Failing to make changes would have cost them many players as well.

 

[TikkchikFenTikktikk]

I only read the first five pages of this thread.

But are there any sales or revenue numbers to be had at all? What were WotC's sales and revenue from D&D before the 4E announcement compared to 31 July 2010 (to pick the arbitrary date when this thread started). What were Paizo's sales and revenue from Pathfinder-branded RPG materials from the same dates?

I don't think WotC breaks their numbers down by product line. And Paizo doesn't release numbers, since they are a privately held company. Correct me if I'm wrong.

Anecdotes from individuals and single FLGSs don't make for data. We can try to make inferences from the actions of the two companies. But they are just wild-assed guesses without financial statements. Yes, I expected wild-assed guesses because I am not new here, but I still hoped for the best.

The answer to the question posed by the OP would be extrememly interesting, but mostly because answering it would take leaked insider documents, someone with insider knowledge likely breaking an NDA, or the management of WotC to say something publicly that no one in their right mind would say if they valued their career. (You generally don't make management at a publicly traded company unless you value your career).

BTW, my sig proudly declares my biases, but I should point out that I paid for, downloaded, and read the Pathfinder rulebook and first adventure path and enjoyed them. I wish Paizo the best of luck. Competition in a free market tends to make products better for the consumer.

 

[TheAuldGrump]

I'll voice what might be a minority voice here (but that's ok, since it is MY minority voice! ).

We were all geared up for Pathfinder. But until it was released we decided to test D&D4e, and after that most of the group didn't want to continue with a 3.5 derived set of rules be it D&D3.5 or Pathfinder.

So I bought the Pathfinder core rule book because I promised to so here on EN World, but my group have played D&D4e exclusively. One DM has tried to get a Kingmaker campaign going without much luck. We're having too much fun with D&D4e.

So you could say that WotC snatched us from Pathfinder.

/M

That's too bad, but hopefully your group will eventually adopt the One True System.

1st edition Bunnies & Burrows.

The Auld Grump, in case anyone wonders, that was a joke - there is no One True System, though Bunnies & Burrows really was fun, especially when crossed over with Call of Cthulhu.