Numion said:
Except that's not what you're doing. You're generalizing one instance to characterize the whole, and I'm pointing out that your one example is the exception (potion miscability table -> magic in 1E was unpredictable is your claim, I'm saying it's the exception compared to 99% of items / item use).
Now that we're into ornithology, your claim is the same as claiming "Penguings don't fly, so birds don't fly", a complete reversal of your intent in the quoted section.
Obviously, not a student of logic.
To disprove the claim "All birds fly" requires that one can example a bird that does not fly. Once this is the case, the claim is disproven. It doesn't mean or imply the opposite (that all birds do not fly).
Likewise the claim that "Magic is a predictable technology, and always has been" does not require vast evidence of unpredictability to disprove. Nor, to be quite honest, does there need to be a lot of unpredictability in a "technology" to render that technology unpredictable. In the case of 1e (and to some degree, later) magic, I have pointed out:
(1) Potion miscability,
(2) Random-effect items, such as wands of wonder and bags of beans,
(3) The variable (and otherwise unknown) elements involved in item creation (not a feature of 3.X),
(4) That magic items can, and do, exist that replicate otherwise unknown effects (without being artifacts),
(5) That the wording of the rules offers more room for interpretation, so that there can be variables in how magic works from casting to casting, based on circumstance,
(6) The inclusion of "unknown and unknowable" magic effects in many, many published modules -- where rivers might run through midair in one room and a giant crab might be kept alive inside a giant bubble in another.
Even if the rule was that there was "only" a 1% chance of something truly bad happening to you when you used magic (say, because the item was cursed, or because the DM thought that a
sword of wonder was a good idea, where it goes off, wand-like, whenever you roll a 1), that would tend to make it something other than a "predictable technology" in the way those words are generally used.
It would also make you think twice about the next glowing sword that you saw. A little unpredictability goes a long way.
The real-life equivilent would be that, every time you drove a car, there was a 1% (or higher) chance that the car might turn out to be Christine (from the Stephen King novel of the same name). I doubt that auto sales would skyrocket as a result. I doubt that this would be considered "predictable technology" by the average consumer.
Bet, you are obviously also visiting Bizarro Land. Enjoy your stay.
