Do you believe we are alone in the universe?

The universe is far, far, far too big and ancient a place to reasonably rule out life elsewhere. Even if the galaxy is currently lacking intelligent life other than our own (and I'm not convinced it is - our expectations of what intelligent life should be doing with itself is, obviously, prejudiced toward our own ideals), I don't think it was nor will be. I'm also much more optimistic about FTL.

 

[Hussar]

Thing is, again, we're talking such enormous time scales. Even two intelligent, tool using species could miss each other by a few hundred thousand years quite easily. The odds of an intelligent, technological species existing at the same time as us, in the same neighbourhood as us, becomes very, very small. Off by even 1% either way and we never see each other.

Will we find life? I'm fairly sure that we will. I certainly believe that it is entirely plausible. Will we find technological life? That's a much more dubious proposition.

 

[Zardnaar]

Thing is, again, we're talking such enormous time scales. Even two intelligent, tool using species could miss each other by a few hundred thousand years quite easily. The odds of an intelligent, technological species existing at the same time as us, in the same neighbourhood as us, becomes very, very small. Off by even 1% either way and we never see each other.

Will we find life? I'm fairly sure that we will. I certainly believe that it is entirely plausible. Will we find technological life? That's a much more dubious proposition.

1% is about 130 milion years. 0.1% is 13 million years, 0.001% is 1.3 million years, 0.0001 is 130 000 years, 0.00001 is 13 0000 years., 0.000001% is 1300 years, 0.0000001% is 130 years so at that percentage Alien civilisation would be 1880's tech or 130 years ahead of us. Either way they may not be able to communicate or notice us (maybe they no longer use radio IDK).

And that assumes they are within 20-30 light years of us. Could Earth/Seti detect a mirror image civilisation using equivalent tech to scan space?

This is basically what I meant about time and space having to match up. Could the Dinosaurs have evolved a sentient reptile race had the asteroid not got them?

 

[Maxperson]

(Which can actually never happen at all, since evolution is all about adaptation and survival not based upon a goal like intelligence)

Except that intelligence IS an adaption for survival, which is why so many different creatures have some degree of it here on Earth. The smarter you are, the more likely you are to survive and adapt.

 

[Maxperson]

This is basically what I meant about time and space having to match up. Could the Dinosaurs have evolved a sentient reptile race had the asteroid not got them?

They may very well have, and more than once. It was a much rougher world back then. There would be no trace left of a sentient dinosaur race after all this time, even if there were some that made it to some tech use.

 

[Hussar]

Except that intelligence IS an adaption for survival, which is why so many different creatures have some degree of it here on Earth. The smarter you are, the more likely you are to survive and adapt.

That’s not true. Bacteria as a species, heck most plants as a species are far far more successful than any vertebrate.

 

[Morrus]

Except that intelligence IS an adaption for survival, which is why so many different creatures have some degree of it here on Earth. The smarter you are, the more likely you are to survive and adapt.

If that were true there would be plenty more intelligent species on Earth. The truth is, intelligence is definitely not needed for survival. There are species on this planet which predate us and will likely outlast us. When it comes to evolutionary survivability, we are not the top of the pyramid.

 

[Ryujin]

If that were true there would be plenty more intelligent species on Earth. The truth is, intelligence is definitely not needed for survival. There are species on this planet which predate us and will likely outlast us. When it comes to evolutionary survivability, we are not the top of the pyramid.

Maxperson might be considering intelligence to start at a level much less than what humans possess. From the standpoint of tool using intelligence, evolution may ultimately decide it was a bad idea and we'll be gone. When you get to a tool using level that allows you to screw with the environment that keeps you alive you either get smarter, in a different sense, or go extinct.

I've read some compelling theories that postulate the rise of multiple sentient species is suppressed by the competition between them. That, ultimately, one wins out and the other(s) disappear. If there isn't significant geological isolation, you can't really have more than one (in theory).

 

[Morrus]

Maxperson might be considering intelligence to start at a level much less than what humans possess.

I'm not thinking dogs and monkeys, though - I'm thinking cockroaches and jellyfish. Crocodiles, although they have changed, have been around for about 85M years. Lice, some crabs, and a ton of sea-creatures. Heck, there's a reasonable possibility is that it's our intelligence which will wipe us out, and leave us with a pretty short footprint compared to many unintelligent species, making intelligence a misstep in the evolutionary chain, not the apex of it.

 

[Ryujin]

I'm not thinking dogs and monkeys, though - I'm thinking cockroaches and jellyfish. Crocodiles, although they have changed, have been around for about 85M years. Lice, some crabs, and a ton of sea-creatures. Heck, there's a reasonable possibility is that it's our intelligence which will wipe us out, and leave us with a pretty short footprint compared to many unintelligent species, making intelligence a misstep in the evolutionary chain, not the apex of it.

As I said

 

[Zardnaar]

I'm not thinking dogs and monkeys, though - I'm thinking cockroaches and jellyfish. Crocodiles, although they have changed, have been around for about 85M years. Lice, some crabs, and a ton of sea-creatures. Heck, there's a reasonable possibility is that it's our intelligence which will wipe us out, and leave us with a pretty short footprint compared to many unintelligent species, making intelligence a misstep in the evolutionary chain, not the apex of it.

This. We can adapt to the environment though so short of poisoning the atmosphere or the ocean we on't wipe ourselves out even if global warming go up by 2 or 3 degrees. I'm not sure we even have enough nukes to cause an extinction level event. That being said if we have 10 billion+ people and the resources to support 2 billion its fairly obvious what will happen. We won't sent colonists to Mars, bullets are much cheaper. Also gonna suck for anyone who is in semi tropical or warmer areas of the Earth.