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Do you believe we are alone in the universe?

The universe is far, far, far too big and ancient a place to reasonably rule out life elsewhere. Even if the galaxy is currently lacking intelligent life other than our own (and I'm not convinced it is - our expectations of what intelligent life should be doing with itself is, obviously, prejudiced toward our own ideals), I don't think it was nor will be. I'm also much more optimistic about...

The universe is far, far, far too big and ancient a place to reasonably rule out life elsewhere. Even if the galaxy is currently lacking intelligent life other than our own (and I'm not convinced it is - our expectations of what intelligent life should be doing with itself is, obviously, prejudiced toward our own ideals), I don't think it was nor will be. I'm also much more optimistic about FTL. :)
 

Shasarak

Banned
Banned
If the operating system fails, the probe becomes a high-tech asteroid.

If the debugging software fails, errors accumulate until it malfunctions catastrophically.

If the backup software is corrupted, there won’t be anything for the systems to reboot from.

And if the operating system fails then the debugging system reinstalls it.

And if the debugging system fails then the backup software reinstalls it.

And if the backup system fails then the operating system reinstalls it.

This is stuff that happens all the time right now.

And they still fail...more quickly if we take excessive risks, don’t eat properly, go for annual checkups, take our meds, etc. because our cells are not capable of perfect replication.

Name a system within your body, and odds are, failure of any one will be fatal.

Ok, so lets say that your skin integrity fails. Your claim is that odds are that will be fatal. But that is not the case, your skin fails you all the time and you dont die. And not only do you not die but your body automatically without your assistance can repair that damage. You dont need medicine, or eating properly or an annual check up for it to happen.

Even the most sophisticated machine we have today eventually requires a human repair or maintenance visit. But that wasn’t my point.

It doesn’t matter what is contacting what, there is still wear. The metal blades that cut leather for jackets, boots, furniture, etc. become blunted by act of cutting the leather. Casting molds may last months or years, but they all eventually fail, becoming progressively less accurate with each use.

Yes thing wear out and get fixed. That is the whole point of a self replicating machine.

Maybe the term is not as self explanatory as I imagine.

That is fantastically optimistic.

There is a project to try and send a probe to Alpha Centuri at 0.2c. At that speed you would not even need the probe to operate for much more then 20 years.

Its not even fantastic, its just an Engineering problem now.
 

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Hussar

Legend
Once the initial transplant of those creatures is done, the rest is just maintaining the equipment to sustain them. That can all be done locally.



That's simply not true. Your body replicates cell constantly and errors happen all the time without any ill effect. It's only when a cell replication botches itself into a disease like cancer or leukemia that things go to hell in a hand basket. The same would apply to the probes. Lots of errors would simply have no effect, depending on what the error was. There also wouldn't always be an error on a replication, and if the materials last a very, very long time(and they would with a species that advanced), you'd only need a handful(if any, depending on material quality) replications.

Your body dies in a handful of decades, with all that replication. If those errors were so trivial, why do natural humans (i.e. humans without advanced medicines) die in about 40 years and even with the best of care, only live about 80 years for the most part?

Yep. I made that point several pages back.




So, a few hundreds of times longer than we have had civilization? This is supposed to be a criticism?



Why do they die?

Because you don't have a broad enough biodiversity. Because you cannot bring enough different species out of the gravity well of Earth, then modify them all enough to live on Mars. So the first bacterial mutation wipes out your entire species.

All you have to do to see that happening now is look at bananas. We've already wiped out one species of bananas and it looks like our current crops will be gone within a few decades.

Up to the point that you know their wild population is stable, you're keeping breeding populations in captivity on the side, to repopulate the species. You've been working out their needs in enclosed spaces (which you need to support the people until terraforming is done anyway) gradually moving them over to Mars surface conditions over the generations.

Because you only have so few strains of bees (as well as EVERY other living thing on the planet), your massively impoverished biosphere will not survive on the long term.

Dude, bugs and seeds are lightweight - way lighter than humans! We can transport enough seeds to comprise a viable breeding population of pretty much any plant you can name in a sack that weighs less than a single human. Bees are hardly big compared to, say, you. Add whatever technology comes along after CRISPR, and biodiversity won't really be the issue.

So, now we're positing that our putative colonists will have the ability to genetically manipulate entire species on a global scale every time a new blight shows up? Every new disease, blight, whatever will just get magically resolved by the power of genetic manipulation?

There are big questions around terraforming, but getting the plants and bugs isn't the hard part. The hard part is understanding medium and long term atmosphere and climate dynamics.

Well, yes, those are big problems too. But the fact that you have to manufacture arable soil for an entire planet is a HUGE issue. We're not talking about soil here. Mars has no biosphere at all. Every ton of soil you need to grow food will have to be manufactured, on site, using various species that will need to be brought from Earth, as well as means to control those species and keep them in balance, in the wild, without constant intervention from people.

Because if you don't do that, you're stuck living in domes forever.
 

Maxperson

Morkus from Orkus
Your body dies in a handful of decades, with all that replication. If those errors were so trivial, why do natural humans (i.e. humans without advanced medicines) die in about 40 years and even with the best of care, only live about 80 years for the most part?

You do realize that there are about 10,000 trillion cell replications in a human lifetime, right? 10,000 trillion before something catastrophic happens.

https://www.quora.com/How-many-cell-divisions-occur-during-an-average-human-lifetime
 

Umbran

Mod Squad
Staff member
Supporter
You do realize that there are about 10,000 trillion cell replications in a human lifetime, right? 10,000 trillion before something catastrophic happens.

Yep. And cancer.

And you figure that we will be as good as Mother Nature at correcting things?
 

Maxperson

Morkus from Orkus
Yep. And cancer.

And you figure that we will be as good as Mother Nature at correcting things?

Nope! But I do figure a civilization that is thousands or millions of years more advanced than we are would be as good or better. But heck, let's only make them half as good and give those probes 5000 trillion replications.
 

Umbran

Mod Squad
Staff member
Supporter
And if the operating system fails then the debugging system reinstalls it.

And if the debugging system fails then the backup software reinstalls it.

And if the backup system fails then the operating system reinstalls it.

This is stuff that happens all the time right now.

It happens all the time right now, but no system we've made has lasted *for centuries in high-radiation environments*.

But that is not the case, your skin fails you all the time and you dont die.

You aren't in space. You aren't in hard vacuum and high radiation, with micrometeorites impacting you at 0.1c.

Maybe the term is not as self explanatory as I imagine.

Self-replication and self-repair are not the same thing.

The machine self-replicates in a resource rich environment of a solar system. It has to self-repair in the second most resource poor environment available - the void of interstellar space.

There is a project to try and send a probe to Alpha Centuri at 0.2c. At that speed you would not even need the probe to operate for much more then 20 years.

Its not even fantastic, its just an Engineering problem now.

"just an engineering problem" How wonderfully dismissive of how hard engineering is!

The Romans knew that steam could produce motion. From there, it was "just an engineerign problem" to build a steam engine. But it took 1700 years or so to come up with a 10-horsepower engine.

And that probe doesn't have to do the complicated work of hunting down raw materials, reaching them, refining them, machining them, and replicating itself. Getting there is easy. Duplicatign the work dy an entire civilization to build you is another.
 

MoonSong

Rules-lawyering drama queen but not a munchkin
"just an engineering problem" How wonderfully dismissive of how hard engineering is!

The Romans knew that steam could produce motion. From there, it was "just an engineerign problem" to build a steam engine. But it took 1700 years or so to come up with a 10-horsepower engine.
Well, part of it was the lack of economic incentives, you know slavery and stuff, and these ten centuries of constant warring...


Well, yes, those are big problems too. But the fact that you have to manufacture arable soil for an entire planet is a HUGE issue. We're not talking about soil here. Mars has no biosphere at all. Every ton of soil you need to grow food will have to be manufactured, on site, using various species that will need to be brought from Earth, as well as means to control those species and keep them in balance, in the wild, without constant intervention from people.

Because if you don't do that, you're stuck living in domes forever.

It's harder than that, Biosphere 2 was a total failure, and the team behind it had plenty of access to plants, animals and microorganisms. All of it in a quite small space relative to a planet. If we can't do a simulation in "easy mode", what hope do we stand to do it for reals?
 

Maxperson

Morkus from Orkus
It's harder than that, Biosphere 2 was a total failure, and the team behind it had plenty of access to plants, animals and microorganisms. All of it in a quite small space relative to a planet. If we can't do a simulation in "easy mode", what hope do we stand to do it for reals?

The first attempt failed due to Earth. They didn't compensate for things from Earth, including internal vs. external politics. It also failed due to the small number of animals and insect brought with them, which would not happen on a trip to Mars. They would bring more.

The second attempt achieved self-sufficiency with regard to food. It failed due to Steve Bannon and others getting into arguments and then those people compromising the mission. People kept entering and leaving the biosphere. That could not have happened on Mars.

I guess both failed due to Earth.
 
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Kaodi

Hero
Two questions (for now): How much extra mass would Mars need in order to hold onto an atmosphere properly? And why are we so sure that all life on Earth came from a literal single event and not multiple identical events?
 

MoonSong

Rules-lawyering drama queen but not a munchkin
The first attempt failed due to Earth. They didn't compensate for things from Earth, including internal vs. external politics. It also failed due to the small number of animals and insect brought with them, which would not happen on a trip to Mars. They would bring more.

Obviously they should take more, but don't forget that they had extinctions overnight due to problems with the atmosphere, they had a lot of problems with oxygen levels. If something like that happens again in Mars it will kill all of the pollinators again it doesn't matter if they are few or a plenty.

The second attempt achieved self-sufficiency with regard to food. It failed due to Steve Bannon and others getting into arguments and then those people compromising the mission. People kept entering and leaving the biosphere. That could not have happened on Mars.

I guess both failed due to Earth.
I wonder if the self-sufficiency and the constant influxes of fresh air are somehow connected.

Two questions (for now): How much extra mass would Mars need in order to hold onto an atmosphere properly? And why are we so sure that all life on Earth came from a literal single event and not multiple identical events?

I'm not sure about the first one, the bigger problem with Mars' atmosphere is not the mass of the planet, it is the lack of a magnetosphere. Without one the solar wind just chips away at the atmosphere with impunity.

And the second one, from what I understand is simply because all living things so far on Earth share the same biological mechanisms, the same codon sizes, the same codon-to-aminoacid sequences -I'm not a biologist or a chemist, but from what I understand there's no chemical reason these should be unique-, the same kind and number of nucelotids. If we all come from two or more different sources, them being identical would be quite a long shot. The system of gene transcription that we use was but one possibility, there would also be other systems on living beings somewhere on Earth.
 

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