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I only roll damage for boss monsters. It's one of the ways the PCs know they are facing a boss monster..
I kinda like that
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I only roll damage for boss monsters. It's one of the ways the PCs know they are facing a boss monster..
Same, the randomness adds to the danger (or not) of each individual combat.
As a DM, I just use the average. When I go through and make my notes before a session, I transcribe all of the monster stats that might come up, and I only record the average/crit damage instead of writing down the whole thing.
Using the average damage doesn't make monsters any more or less dangerous, on average, but it does make them more consistent and faster to run. When you're already dealing with uncertainty on whether or not they'll hit, adding in the conditional uncertainty of how well they hit is not really worth the complexity. It also makes critical hits more important, since you're never going to get higher damage from a non-critical hit, and you never risk rolling a crit that somehow deals below-average damage anyway.
There is no certainty; there are only probabilities. After all, you don't know that they're going to hit; and even if they do hit, you don't know if it might be a crit.The problem is that it allows the PCs to know with certainty that they can take X more hits from a creature before reaching 0 hit points. I don't like that certainty.
There is no certainty; there are only probabilities. After all, you don't know that they're going to hit; and even if they do hit, you don't know if it might be a crit.
Look at your typical Air Elemental, for example. It has two attacks at +8 that each deal 2d8+5 damage. If you're rolling for damage, then it can deal anywhere between 0 damage and 74 damage on its turn, depending on how many attacks hit and whether they are critical hits and how the damage rolls out. If your AC is 19, then there's a relatively high probability that it will deal about fourteen damage on its turn, with a non-negligible possibility of dealing zero or ~28, and a much smaller chance that it would deal less than ten damage or greater than fifty damage.
If you're just taking the averages, then the possible outcomes for damage dealt in a round are: 0, 14, 23, 28, 37, 46. The certainty that you gain is that it will deal one of those numbers to you in a round.
When you weight all of the possible outcomes by the probability of them occurring, the information comes out the same either way. Rolling damage does present the possibility of outcomes which are impossible by averages, but they aren't statistically significant in most cases. If someone had 47 hit points remaining, I don't think that the certainty of being able to survive a 1-in-400 chance double-crit would alter their actions much. And while it might affect their decision if they had 13 or 15 hit points left, since the chance of rolling outside that range on 2d8+5 is statistically significant, it wouldn't change the probabilities by enough to outweigh the ease-of-play benefit of not rolling extra dice.
So the 9% chance that you'll get hit twice, with the sum of 4d8 coming up 20 or higher, is huge? But the 9% chance of rolling a critical hit isn't significant?What's the chance of hitting twice? 25%. That is still 9% versus 0%. Huge difference in certainty.
I won't go into the math needed to figure out the crits, but the chance of a crit on one of two dice is no more than 9 3/4%, so at best you close the gap by about 1%.
So the 9% chance that you'll get hit twice, with the sum of 4d8 coming up 20 or higher, is huge? But the 9% chance of rolling a critical hit isn't significant?
When you take average damage, the players have more certainty regarding probable outcomes than if damage is rolled. The relative amount of certainty may be difficult or onerous to quantify, but in my experience, that very-slightly-reduced level of uncertainty is still plenty enough to make for an interesting game. What you do in the face of uncertainty is still just-as-interesting of a choice, even with slightly fewer variables involves.