D&D 5E Does the Rabiah Scale matter (for conversion probability from Magic plane to D&D setting)?

[Parmandur]

Interesting leak... I'm a little doubtful how accurate it is, as it seems to be heavily weighted towards revisiting old planes, instead of the current pattern of alternating between entirely new ones, and revisiting old. The amount of revisiting planes here makes me feel this is more conjecture.

That said, the Kamigawa one is the most likely to be legit. Several domains were registered with Kamigawa in the name, and there was a public survey that even showed off some Japanese-themed concept art.

Possible New Magic Set Name Uncovered

Domain name for Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty created on Monday.

articles.starcitygames.com

Anyway, a Kamigawa setting for D&D could actually be in the cards there. I still find the Rabiah scale useful, as it at least gives insight to Mark Rosewater's thought process, but he doesn't represent the entirety of MtG development.

Yeah, I'm taking this with a huge grain of salt, though the new to old balance isn't so bad: 4.5 returning Settings, 3.5 new Settings (depends on how you look at Shandalar, which is complicated).

Given the presence of three longshot fan requests (Kamigawa, Shandalar, & Lorwyn), it's either super fake OR the Magic team decided to throw doen the gauntlet and choose Settings precisely because they were improbable.

 

[Urriak Uruk]

Yeah, I'm taking this with a huge grain of salt, though the new to old balance isn't so bad: 4.5 returning Settings, 3.5 new Settings (depends on how you look at Shandalar, which is complicated).

Given the presence of three longshot fan requests (Kamigawa, Shandalar, & Lorwyn), it's either super fake OR the Magic team decided to throw doen the gauntlet and choose Settings precisely because they were improbable.

I guess I sort-of misread the leak... didn't realize Mwadwani, Ashelleu, and Hybyst are probably new planes. I'll say, those last two are just terrible names, those can't be anything more than placeholders even if they're real...

 

[Urriak Uruk]

Yeah, I'm taking this with a huge grain of salt, though the new to old balance isn't so bad: 4.5 returning Settings, 3.5 new Settings (depends on how you look at Shandalar, which is complicated).

Given the presence of three longshot fan requests (Kamigawa, Shandalar, & Lorwyn), it's either super fake OR the Magic team decided to throw doen the gauntlet and choose Settings precisely because they were improbable.

Let's take a look at how these returned planes line up with the Rabiah, assuming that the leak is actually true (just for fun);

• Kamigawa: 7
• Shandalar: 7
• Dominaria: 1
• Lorwyn: 6
• New Phyrexia: 5

 

[Parmandur]

Let's take a look at how these returned planes line up with the Rabiah, assuming that the leak is actually true (just for fun);

• Kamigawa: 7
• Shandalar: 7
• Dominaria: 1
• Lorwyn: 6
• New Phyrexia: 5

Yeah, my gut says that it feels a little too wishlist like, though people seem to be taking at least parts of these rumors seriously (specifically Kamigawa, Shalandar, and Dominaria). I would have expected Amonkhet or Tarkir before most of this, though.

To be blunt, the new Planes having kind of bad names seems more like an argument that it's really a WotC product, if anything.

 

[Ruin Explorer]

Anyway, a Kamigawa setting for D&D could actually be in the cards there. I still find the Rabiah scale useful, as it at least gives insight to Mark Rosewater's thought process, but he doesn't represent the entirety of MtG development.

I think the more successful D&D becomes the less chance there is of MtG settings, and the less influence the MtG team are likely to have. And D&D seems to be becoming very successful. So I'm not sure his opinions matter in the way they probably did in say, 2016.

I doubt we'll see D&D attempt any "ethnic" fantasy settings to put it crudely in first-party products. There's too much reputational risk because they will be under a blazing bright spotlight that stuff from 3PPs simply never will be. One misstep, and they could quite literally be more trouble than they're worth. Any Kamigawa setting would likely fall under that. Plus I'm not sure they inherently have any more draw than other settings.

 

[Urriak Uruk]

I doubt we'll see D&D attempt any "ethnic" fantasy settings to put it crudely in first-party products. There's too much reputational risk because they will be under a blazing bright spotlight that stuff from 3PPs simply never will be. One misstep, and they could quite literally be more trouble than they're worth. Any Kamigawa setting would likely fall under that. Plus I'm not sure they inherently have any more draw than other settings.

A fair point, but I'll add they get plenty of criticism for not exploring non-Western fantasy as well, and I have heard WotC staff on Twitch mention how they want to rectify that in future products. I'm not saying you're wrong because the fear of screwing up could outweigh the hope of doing it right, but I don't know for sure on way or another.

 

[Parmandur]

A fair point, but I'll add they get plenty of criticism for not exploring non-Western fantasy as well, and I have heard WotC staff on Twitch mention how they want to rectify that in future products. I'm not saying you're wrong because the fear of screwing up could outweigh the hope of doing it right, but I don't know for sure on way or another.

Yeah, could go either way. I'm skeptical but keeping it in mind.

If they are pursuing more diverse Magic Settings, that would work great for D&D crossovers, too.

 

[Ruin Explorer]

A fair point, but I'll add they get plenty of criticism for not exploring non-Western fantasy as well, and I have heard WotC staff on Twitch mention how they want to rectify that in future products. I'm not saying you're wrong because the fear of screwing up could outweigh the hope of doing it right, but I don't know for sure on way or another.

Yeah there's definitely an element of cuts both ways. I think until they have some permanent or at least long-term-contract designers who aren't white guys though it's unlikely. Especially as they seem to keep kind of screwing up there. And diversity-wise they don't really need specifically non-Western fantasy so long as they keep putting diverse characters in the art etc. (which they'd done well with).

Also if they do my person guess is they won't go Asia because it's been explored a lot, including by D&D and would automatically make people extra-suspicious.

 

[Benjamin Olson]

I'm guessing we probably won't see Ali from Cairo's Guide to Rabiah any time soon.

 

[Parmandur]

So, to add a little bit of context to how much we should take the "Rabiah Scale" with a grain of salt regarding Magic plans, and hence D&D potentialities:

In episode # 828 of his "Drive to Work" Podcast (Coronavirus Edition, so from his den), Rosewater stipulated that he was answering "What's more likely" questions without taking into account anything he knew that the public does not, and just speculating based on that hypothetical. With that in mind, Rosewater back in July rated Kaldheim (which had some history in the lore before getting a full set this year) a 7 on the Rabiah scale ("It's unlikely to return, but possible if the right environment comes along"). Two months later, WotC announced the Kaldheim Set that Rosewater had worked on years prior and knew was coming down the pipeline. Ergo, the scale doesn't have a lot of predictive power, and may be part of misdirection by the illusionist's hand.